The True Big Hurt

[Wolf Hopper]

See: http://www.netshrine.com/20040201.html

Discussion welcome and appreciated.

[gyb13]

nice read....the 'big fat lazy cat'? isn't it an insult to thomas to compare him to galarraga?

[TimmyB]

HOFer and "What coulda been" all in the same package. Guess which one he'll be remembered for most...

[nyy26wc]

Until this happens, former players such as Rogers Hornsby and Jimmie Foxx will remain in the debate of “Best Ever” (for right handed batters) and Frank Thomas will be excluded from the argument.

Let's compare Thomas to the two players you explicitly named here.

Hornsby had a 10 year stretch, from 1920-29, in which he had 902 of his 1084 career RCAA. That's 83%.

Foxx's best 10 year stretch, from 1930-39, produced 799 of his 985 RCAA. That's 81%.

From 1991-2000, Thomas had 679 of his 770 career RCAA. That's 88%, which makes him more peak bulk than the others, but only at the moment. All he needs is a mere 48 RCAA for the rest of his career and he's down to Hornsby's 83% and just 68 to get down to Foxx's 81%.

It will be a big surprise if he doesn't do both of them. So, it's likely that we're left with a player who was able to put a higher percentage of his career figure into non peak years than the other two.

Meanwhile, here are the others in the top 10 for career RCAA by a righthanded hitter, plus a couple (DiMaggio & McGwire) would make the top 10 if it was since 1900 and a Thomas comtemporary who has a shot at the top 10 (Bagwell, but his chances are fading). The players are listed with their percentage of their career RCAA during their best 10 year stretch, followed by the amount and the time of that stretch--

Willie Mays, 64%, 647, 1954-63
Hank Aaron, 57%, 592, 1957-66
Honus Wagner, 71%, 725, 1900-09
Frank Robinson, 60%, 542, 1959-68
Ed Delahanty, 97%, 813, 1893-1902
Nap Lajoie, 71%, 559, 1898-1907
Rickey Henderson, 65%, 495, 1984-93
Joe DiMaggio, 86%, 526, 1938-49 (for DiMaggio, the 10 year stretches are 10 year played stretches)
Mark McGwire, 80%, 532, 1991-2000
Jeff Bagwell, 88%, 583, 1993-2002

Thomas's 10 year % percentage will come down as his career progresses (unless he has a negative RCAA from this point on, which would drive up that %, but I don't think anyone is expecting that). While he's a good bet to have his percentage fall under Hornsby and Foxx's, he'll still probably have a figure higher than others on this list. But, is it really unfair to penalize Thomas for higher a higher percentage, when you consider that it was a result of him having a higher 10 year figure than anyone but Hornsby and Foxx?

Meanwhile, just out of curiosity, here are the 10 year percentages for those in the top 10 in career RCAA who were non-right handed hitters--

Babe Ruth, 66%, 1174, 1920-29
Ted Williams, 67%, 985, 1939-51 (like DiMaggio, counting 10 year played stretches)
Ty Cobb, 61%, 831, 1908-17
Barry Bonds, 70%, 945, 1994-2003
Lou Gehrig, 83%, 1031, 1927-36
Stan Musial, 69%, 833, 1943-53 (see Williams/DiMaggio)
Mickey Mantle, 75%, 824, 1953-62
Tris Speaker, 57%, 604, 1912-21

[nyy26wc]

I have another idea.

I'm going to rerun the numbers, this time using 7 year stretches and see what happens.

[nyy26wc]

Here are the 7 year figures, using the same righthanded hitters.

This time I'll order them based on the highest percentage for 7 year stretches, and once again, counting 7 year played stretches--

Ed Delahanty, 75%, 624, 1893-98
Jeff Bagwell, 71%, 469, 1994-2000
Mark McGwire, 69%, 460, 1994-2000
Frank Thomas, 65%, 497, 1990-96
Joe DiMaggio, 63%, 443, 1939-48
Jimmie Foxx, 61%, 597, 1929-35
Rogers Hornsby, 60%, 652, 1919-25
Honus Wagner, 56%, 562, 1902-08
Nap Lajoie, 55%, 430, 1898-1904
Frank Robinson, 49%, 417, 1961-67
Rickey Henderson, 47%, 360, 1984-90
Willie Mays, 46%, 462, 1954-60
Hank Aaron, 44%, 455, 1957-63

Give Thomas another 58 RCAA for the rest of his career, which is certainly reasonable, and he plummets down to 60% and starts heading to the bottom half of the list.

Meanwhile, just of curiosity, here are the 7 year figures for the players in the top 10 who weren't right-handed hitters--

Lou Gehrig, 58%, 730, 1930-36
Mickey Mantle, 58%, 638, 1955-61
Barry Bonds, 54%, 727, 1997-2003
Ted Williams, 54%, 794, 1940-49
Stan Musial, 50%, 606, 1948-54
Babe Ruth, 47%, 837, 1920-26
Tris Speaker, 45%, 470, 1910-16
Ty Cobb, 44%. 596, 1907-13

NOTE--In this lists, when there were ties, I didn't go to extra decimal places to settle them.

[Wolf Hopper]

Lee - how I came up with Foxx and Hornsby - - -
take all RH batters since 1900, min 8000 PA, and look at the top ten RCAA guys.

Then, look at the ratio of RCAA to Outs.

Hornsby and Foxx are the only ones with a ratio > .17

Thomas is close - at .158