Player Evaluation: WARP, WS, TPR, etc.

[sweaver]

Since the other thread is evolving into a different discussion than what the name implies, a bit more information can be had here. There are three main (so far as I can tell) catch-all evaluation tools for baseball players, to wit:
Wins Against Replacement Player (WARP), done by Clay Davenport for Baseball Prospectus.
Win Shares, proposed by Bill James in the book of the same name.
Total Player Rating, calculated by Pete Palmer for Total Baseball.

To answer a question posed by TimmyB, the definition of the three levels of WARP, from the BP website...

WARP-1
Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season.

WARP-2
Wins Above Replacement Player, with difficulty added into the mix.

WARP-3
WARP-2, expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. Initially, I was just going to use (162/season length) as the multiplier, but this seemed to overexpand the very short seasons of the 19th century. I settled on using (162/scheduled games) ** (2/3). So Ross Barnes' 7.4 wins in 1873, a 55 game season, only gets extended to 15.2 WARP, instead of a straight-line adjustment of 21.8.

[sweaver]

The entire glossary of BP statistical terms is available at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/glossary.shtml

[sweaver]

The top 100 in career WARP3, FYI.

1. Babe Ruth 224.8
2. Hank Aaron 211.4
3. Willie Mays 207
4. Barry Bonds 194.5
5. Ty Cobb 191.9
6. Tris Speaker 190
7. Rickey Henderson 189.6
8. Stan Musial 188.2
9. Walter Johnson 184.5
10. Mel Ott 175.9
11. Honus Wagner 175.3
12. Ted Williams 170.1
13. Eddie Collins 169.3
14. Cal Ripken 168.3
15. Mike Schmidt 166.5
16. Nap Lajoie 166.2
17. Cy Young 164.3
18. Frank Robinson 162.6
19. Roger Clemens 158.4
20. Carl Yastrzemski 157
21. Wade Boggs 153.3
22. Joe Morgan 149.4
23. Pete Rose 148.4
24. Rogers Hornsby 148
25. Eddie Mathews 145.4

[sweaver]

continuing:
26. Cap Anson 144.6
27. Robin Yount 144.3
28. George Brett 143.8
29. Mickey Mantle 143.7
30. Lou Gehrig 140.3
31. Jimmie Foxx 132.1
32. Warren Spahn 131.5
33. Lou Whitaker 131.2
34. Roberto Alomar 130.2
35. Tony Gwynn 130.2
36. Nolan Ryan 130.2
37. Paul Waner 128.7
38. Paul Molitor 128.2
39. Bert Blyleven 127.5
40. Eddie Murray 127.3
41. Charlie Gehringer 127.2
42. Bill Dahlen 126.8
43. George Davis 126.7
44. Ryne Sandberg 126.2
45. Roberto Clemente 125.3
46. Brooks Robinson 125.1
47. Rafael Palmeiro 124.8
48. Steve Carlton 124.2
49. Dwight Evans 123.2
50. Roger Connor 123
numbers are through the 2002 season.

[sweaver]

and more:
51. Darrell Evans 122.3
52. Bobby Grich 122.2
53. Luke Appling 121.6
54. Ron Santo 121.1
55. Gary Carter 120.6
56. Ernie Banks 120.1
57. Carlton Fisk 119.8
58. Billy Williams 119.3
59. Barry Larkin 118.4
60. Alan Trammell 118.2
61. Joe DiMaggio 118
(tie) Pete Alexander 118
63. Arky Vaughan 117.6
64. Ken Griffey, Jr. 116.6
65. Lefty Grove 116.1
66. Orator Jim O'Rourke 115.4
67. Ed Delahanty 114.7
68. Yogi Berra 114.4
69. Graig Nettles 114.2
70. Frankie Frisch 114
71. Buddy Bell 113.9
72. Reggie Jackson 113.7
73. Al Simmons 113.5
74. Johnny Bench 113.3
(tie) Gaylord Perry 113.3

[sweaver]

and the rest:
76. Jeff Bagwell 112.5
77. Sam Crawford 112.4
78. Greg Maddux 112.1
79. Richie Ashburn 112
80. Rod Carew 111.9
81. Phil Niekro 110.3
82. Bobby Wallace 110
83. Joe Cronin 109.7
84. Willie Randolph 109.4
85. Willie McCovey 109.3
(tie) Christy Mathewson 109.3
87. Brett Butler 108.3
88. Bob Gibson 108.1
89. Robin Roberts 107.6
90. Frank Thomas 106.8
91. Mark McGwire 106.7
92. Andre Dawson 106.1
93. Fergie Jenkins 106
94. Fred Clarke 105.1
95. Billy Herman 104.7
96. Tony Fernandez 104.2
97. Gabby Hartnett 104.1
98. Lou Boudreau 104
99. Bobby Doerr 103.7
(tie) Johnny Mize 103.7

[JamesI]

As much as I consider Cal Ripken jr and Brooks Robinson gods of the baseball universe, ranking them as the 14th and 46th players of all time respectively seems wrong. Bill James rankings from his abstract seems more accurate..(around 30th for Cal and 90th for Brooks. Don't remember exactly)

[sweaver]

I think that WARP puts more emphasis on defense than Win Shares. I see that a lot. Plus, these are career numbers, which do more to reward "pluggers" like Cal and Brooks.