BBA Study: Stats and/or Tools

[Max Power]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/debate0307.html

I think this first installment is very interesting. I look forward to the continuation of the series. I am surprised to see the Yankees, Reds, and Padres use the same approach - - given their revenue gaps.

[gyb13]

make sure you don't miss out on the two links in the box in the top right of the article...

i especially like depodesta's investment analogy - stats are just another tool, not the only one... but some of the teams don't seem to capture that idea.

small interesting note - the four teams which are most stat-oriented are all in the AL (Bos, Oak, Tx, Tor)

[Ytown Tribe fan]

It will be interesting to compare the results over a few years.

I would guess that the results (W-L record) over the next 5 years will not be biased toward one end of the approach spectrum, but will be random. As usual, the team salary will be as good a predictor of success as any other.

This ties in to my field very well. To vastly simplify things: the old-timers tend to go with one approach based on history and gut feelings, the newbies go with straight computer analyses and don't bother to interpret data themselves. In the end, both types of forecaster are accurate about as often.

I would guess that the same will hold true in baseball "forecasting" as well.

[KCBOOMER]

In dealing with prospects you can't just use stats. You don't have enough information to evaluate prospects statistically. You have to look at tools and your own perception of how a player will develop.

Once a player gets into the farm system you can begin to use stats to see how the player is progressing but you still have to make allowances for "growth" both physically, emotionally, and professionally.

Clearly with players with several years of major league ball under their belt you have to let the stats dominate your thinking. You do have enough info at that point to objectively judge players.

[WiredTiger]

Originally posted by gyb13

small interesting note - the four teams which are most stat-oriented are all in the AL (Bos, Oak, Tx, Tor)
That's because all four teams have a strong connection to Billy Beane.

[gyb13]

sure. it's just interesting that none of these folks (epstein, james, grady, ricciardi, law) found themselves in a NL team...

[SmedIndy]

Boom - I think once someone reaches AA then you can use more stats than tools. AA is the key to development.

[cubfan33]

I think by getting a player closer to Smed's Double-A Stats Threshhold - by drafting a college player over high school over some unknown from Venezuela - increases the ability to quickly judge using established performance analysis.

Why the AL? Because performance analysis is much more advanced with hitters than pitchers or defense.

[TGwynn19]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
AA is the key to development.


Smed,

Tell David Wells that:D

[Wolf Hopper]

Another interesting pro and cons on tools and stats - - http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2003/0515/1553954.html

[KCBOOMER]

Originally posted by SmedIndy Boom - I think once someone reaches AA then you can use more stats than tools. AA is the key to development.

I 10-4 that, Smed. My comment was really geared to the initial acquisition of talent (i.e. the draft).

[Rajah]

Originally posted by cubfan33
I think by getting a player closer to Smed's Double-A Stats Threshhold - by drafting a college player over high school over some unknown from Venezuela - increases the ability to quickly judge using established performance analysis.

Why the AL? Because performance analysis is much more advanced with hitters than pitchers or defense.

From reading Moneyball, I've learned that the A's have come up with the most accurate defensive measure ever. I'm not going to go into the little detail provided in the book (little detail, as its a proprietary system), but the A's know how to measure defense, and while they have concluded its a lot more than 5% of the game, its still no where near as important as hitting. Which lead them to give up johnny damon and, without looking for a better player, insert Terrence Long into Center. Long is far inferior defensively, but it wasn't worth the cost for the A's to upgrade.

[sweaver]

Well, Damon is also superior to Long offensively. But I'll wait to read the book before I pass judgment on all that.