Indians' 2003 Prospects?

[OaktownTribeFan]

Going into spring training, I assumed the worst for the Indians. Here they had a rookie manager, Eric Wedge (already nicknamed "Wedgie" by some irreverant fans), and then two key players got injured early in ST: Josh Bard stepped on a ball and hurt his leg, while Cliff Lee was out for at least a month with an abdominal pull. So it looked like another typical March for the Indians, and I was praying that the ban on boating was still in effect.*

But after some 19 games, the Indians are leading the Grapefruit League, and many Tribe fans are optimistic and downright giddy. They're predicting a 1st place finish for the team. Of course we know that EVERY team's in 1st place right now, and everybody has a cheery glow this time of year if they're in the Florida or Arizona sun. And ST records are about as meaningful as an apology from Jose Mesa.

If I'm analyzing the Indians, and I am, I'd begin with the starting pitching. CC Sabathia, coming off a strong 2nd half in 2002, is doing well in ST. However, there's evidence that he was overworked in 2001 & 2002. He averaged over 110 pitches in many ballgames last year, and was used even more the year before. Baseball Prospectus has done studies on this and determined that overwork can shorten a young pitcher's career. So I have lots of doubts about the durability of C.C. I'm hoping he's not the next Mark Fidrych or Herb Score.

Next in the rotation is Jason Bere, a pickup off the scrap heap. This guy has had trouble keeping his ERA under 5.0 and has re-defined mediocrity. This is NOT the kind of pitcher you want for #2. Brian Anderson is a ditto in this category, and has been torched all spring, except for a "B" game the other day.

#4 is Ricardo Rodriguez, obtained from the Cards last year. He showed some flashes of excellence, but tended to get lit up every other time out. He's carried that problem into ST. Jason Davis has just won the 5th spot. Davis has posted very good numbers this spring, and was impressive in a callup last September.

This rotation just doesn't inspire confidence, even from an inveterate Tribe booster like myself. This looks more like the 1993 pitching staff, which was very mediocre. There is a solid basis for a good rotation in the future, but until the Billy Trabers and Cliff Lees mature, the Indians are at least a year away from contention.

I could analyze the hitting lineup, but I'm probably going to bore non-Indians fans with that, and besides which, the pitching usually tells the story unless you've got the '95 Indians or '27 Yankees lineups out there everyday, and the 2003 Tribe most assuredly does not have that kind of lumber.

My prediction is still 3rd place in the AL Central. They'll be competitive with the lesser teams, and probably give the better ones a good game, but they still need more pitching and maturity.


*I'm referring here to a boating accident in March 1993 that killed two pitchers, Tim Crews and Steve Olin and caused severe head injuries to Bobby Ojeda. The Indians instituted a ban on boating shortly afterwards.

[TimmyB]

A first place finish is not out of the question for this club in 2004. They could surprise people this year and finish last (extremely doubtful) or first (longshot). But, neither Minnesota nor Chicago appear to be ready to do an imitation of the '27 Yankees, so I would not be surprised if Cleveland showed some stick-to-it through the early summer.

I'm sticking to my 3rd place prediction, but they have the makings of a very good team.

[OaktownTribeFan]

What, no Indians fans around here today?

[Glyndwr]

Originally posted by OaktownTribeFan

However, there's evidence that he was overworked in 2001 & 2002. He averaged over 110 pitches in many ballgames last year, and was used even more the year before. Baseball Prospectus has done studies on this and determined that overwork can shorten a young pitcher's career.


Sabathia's PAP stats for last year:

11 category 1 starts
12 category 2
9 category 3
1 category 4
0 catgeory 5

and a stress of 16.

As I understand PAP that isn't that bad at all. I think the stress metric needs to be well above 30 before injuries become likely.

[Max Power]

I picked the Tribe to finish dead last in the AL Central and I'm sticking with it........

Twins and Whitesox should be 1 and 2.

And, I think the Tigers and Royals, while weak teams, have more seasoned players at certain positions than the Indians - - it will be close between the Indians and the Tigers for last. But, I think Trammell, Pena, and the Tigers' pen will be the edge.

Plus, the Tigers' park will better mask young pitching mistakes than the Jake.

Indians will lose about 90 games this year, IMHO.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Two positions appeared tobe locked up yesterday:

Jason Davis - 5th starter (Traber in the pen), In a radio interview this AM, Davis credtis the Tribe winter training program with his great Spring. He was throwing 95+ right out of the gate.

Brandon Phillips - second base. Talk about a hyped prospect! But look -- this guy would have to be the mother of all flops NOT to turn in a respectable career, at the very least.


ALMOST locked up:

Travis Hafner - first base (Broussard is injured for a spell). The man can flat out hit. Power, walks, probably a decent BA -- Like having Jim Thome back without the huge salary. Mark it down -- in three years we will be damned glad we didn't sign Thome, with Hafner and Broussard locked in at first and DH (with Vic Martinez in the mix at C/DH).


This team could finish anywhere from 1st to 5th, although 1st OR 5th are both highly unlikely -- that's probably why most people picked them to finish 3rd. IMO, they are not likely to finish 3rd. But then, they're not likely to finish in any ONE of the other positions either.

[Max Power]

9 years ago, Carlos Baerga looked like a first ballot Cooperstown guy - - - you never know..........better to wait and see on Hafner & Thome..........

[SmedIndy]

I have the Indians for second, because I trust Kenny Williams to bungle a trade and bring in a "proven veteran" who eats outs and hits singles.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Originally posted by Max Power
9 years ago, Carlos Baerga looked like a first ballot Cooperstown guy - - - you never know...

Baerga had half of a HoF career. By age 28, his best hitting comp was Edgardo Alfonzo. By the end, his best comp was, um, Ralph Kress.

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by Max Power
9 years ago, Carlos Baerga looked like a first ballot Cooperstown guy - - - you never know..........better to wait and see on Hafner & Thome..........

But, as I'm pretty sure I cursory mentioned in the player comments book, Baerga only superficially looked like a star.

All of the signs were there for a big collapse--the terrible strikezone judgment, as well as the fact that his real value never matching his hype.

[OaktownTribeFan]

Originally posted by Glyndwr
Sabathia's PAP stats for last year:

11 category 1 starts
12 category 2
9 category 3
1 category 4
0 catgeory 5

and a stress of 16.

As I understand PAP that isn't that bad at all. I think the stress metric needs to be well above 30 before injuries become likely.

Stress is a bad thing, especially for a young pitcher, and CC is only 22 now. Here are some pitch counts from last year:

May 5 2002 115
May 18 2002 111
May 25 2002 113
June 10 2002 111
June 28 2002 120
July 11 2002 114
July 16 2002 122
August 7 2002 115
August 23 2002 110
Sept 12 2002 117
Sept 17 2002 119
Sept 22 2002 119

That's an awful lot of high pitch counts, and it's the main reason why Baseball Weekly labeled Sabathia as the most likely to burn out in an article last month.

Under Charlie Manuel (2001-July 2002), Sabathia had 110 or more pitches in 13 of his 51 starts and had only 4 games with 116+ pitches and twice had back-to-back starts with more than 110 pitches (one such episode was on 6 days rest though). In 16 starts under Joel Skinner, he had 7 starts with 110 or more pitches and 4 with more than 115, and twice had consecutive starts with more than 110 pitches, including three in a row in September.

I hope he doesn't suffer burnout, but the Indians' brain trust has put an awful lot of strain on such a young arm. Wedge ought to be more careful with C.C. than Skinner and Manuel were.

PS Can you tell I've got a lot of tyme on my hands these days? :)

[SmedIndy]

A discussion of Sabathia and his stress levels should probably be taken the APNAC - and then we can have Will chime in with his stress metrics.

[OaktownTribeFan]

Originally posted by nyy26wc
But, as I'm pretty sure I cursory mentioned in the player comments book, Baerga only superficially looked like a star.

All of the signs were there for a big collapse--the terrible strikezone judgment, as well as the fact that his real value never matching his hype.

If you looked deep into the stats, that's true, but most of the "analysts" back then only looked at his AVG, HR, and RBI totals. They saw that he was the only 2B since Hornsby to hit more than 20 HRs and 100 RBIs twice, and pronounced him the heir to Rajah.

There were some outside activities that Baerga was involved in that they weren't aware of or choose to ignore, especially the eating habit. It only really became apparent in 1996, and Hart jettisoned Carlos in a NY minute.

[TGwynn19]

I saw Travis Hafner hit a Wakefield knuckler about 440 feet yesterday. I attended the game with two Indians fans and they were jabbering about him before he hit it and I couldn't shut them up after he hit it. He looks like he could be the real deal.

[LibraryLoser]

Except for the fact that the KC and Detroit owners are cheaper than Cleveland's, I also believe that the Indians could finish way down in the division this year. And the problem is simple: pitching. It just isn't there. They may have some nice offensive prospects, but I don't see how the starters will not consistently give up more runs.

[TGwynn19]

Welcome to the forum LibraryLoser!! Please head on over to the Icebreakers and introduce yourself.

[LibraryLoser]

So they fire the pitching coach less than two weeks before the beginning of the season... That's got to give the pitchers confidence...

[cubfan33]

Don't get me started on Sabathia or young Indians starters in general ... I spent most of yesterday arguing with Sheldon Ocker about the value of pitch counts (which you can hear on BPR - I hope these plugs aren't annoying when they're topical). Pitcher usage and protection was quite possibly one of the reasons that the Tribe switched coaches.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Originally posted by LibraryLoser
So they fire the pitching coach less than two weeks before the beginning of the season... That's got to give the pitchers confidence...

Not to mention poor Mike Brown. Not a classy move.

The "official" word is that Wedge wanted his own buddy as pitching coach. Well, that's fine and dandy -- a manager should be comfortable with his coaches. But two weeks before Opening Day?

Mike Brown has got virtually no chance of hooking up with another team at this point, but he may have another job with the Tribe organization -- if he wants it.

Brown was on WTAM this AM and he sounded pretty glum, but said all the right things. Wedge said al the right things too, about how Brown is well-liked and respected and so on. Yeah, right. Way to treat a coach, guys.

[OaktownTribeFan]

Originally posted by cubfan33
Don't get me started on Sabathia or young Indians starters in general ... I spent most of yesterday arguing with Sheldon Ocker about the value of pitch counts (which you can hear on BPR - I hope these plugs aren't annoying when they're topical). Pitcher usage and protection was quite possibly one of the reasons that the Tribe switched coaches.

Will, do you have an URL for that discussion?

The word in the Cleveland papers is that Brown was let go due to communication problems, but I bet it's more than just that. It's interesting to note that the high pitch counts I posted on the 1st page of this thread happened under BOTH Manuel & Skinner in 2002. That definitely shows that Brown was responsible for the high pitch counts.

[SmedIndy]

Why wait until something untoward happens.

The Indians need to protect their young arms. I'd rather be cautious and careful, and also make sure the coaching staff is all speaking the same language.

[LibraryLoser]

There was an article in the Plain Dealer by Paul Hoynes on February 3rd that discussed another Tribe money saving action. They decided not to buy injury insurance on Sabathia (and probably some other players too). The article indicated that other teams are going this way more often too.

[LibraryLoser]

So Travis Hafner was held out of yesterday's game because of a wrist injury... This was exactly the issue that Baseball Prospectus mentioned as something to worry about with him.

[OaktownTribeFan]

Yes, the Hafner injury is troubling. Fortunately Broussard has come through so far this ST.

But it's still a drag that Hafner's having wrist trouble.

I don't think it's going to be as easy to replace Thome as some have thought.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Why is Terry Mulholland taking up a roster spot?

[LibraryLoser]

The stated reasons are:

1. Veteran help to protect some of the younger pitchers.

2. Mentoring.

Feel free to laugh as much as you want.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan
Why is Terry Mulholland taking up a roster spot? because he was rated 2nd worst reliever in the majors last year (by Adjusted Runs Prevented), and you know those statheads don't know what they're talking about. he's got veteran presence, is a gamer, and knows how to get guys out when the game is on the line.

[nyy26wc]

You're absolutely right, gyb. Stats that concerns themselves with runs, such as RSAA, are nothing more than statistical gobbledoogook that don't take into account the inherently obvious fact that the way to win baseball games is to out intangible the other team. Outscore them--that's blasphemy.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

I have it figured out, somewhat. Terry has a lot of postseason pitching experience -- 14 games! True, he has a 6.97 ERA in those games, but...

My God -- do you realize that Mulholland is four years OLDER than Jaime Navarro? And the Tribe HAD Navarro! How did we let him get away?

[clemente21]

Mullholland is there because he can mop up for 3-4 innings every five days when either the #4 or #5 starter gets lit up like a Christmas tree, and still probably pitch in two other losses per week. I wouldn't be surprised if 75% of his appearances are Tribe losses where he isn't the one that gives up the lead.

[RichG]

Originally posted by clemente21
Mullholland is there because he can mop up for 3-4 innings every five days when either the #4 or #5 starter gets lit up like a Christmas tree, and still probably pitch in two other losses per week. I wouldn't be surprised if 75% of his appearances are Tribe losses where he isn't the one that gives up the lead.

That's how Cox used Ligtenberg the last couple of years.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

The Tribe's Opening Day roster appears to be set (with an exception or two), according to CIR:

C (2): Josh Bard and Tim Laker or AJ Hinch
IF (6): Travis Hafner, Brandon Phillips, Omar Vizquel, Casey Blake, John McDonald, Bill Selby
OF (4): Matt Lawton, Milton Bradley, Karim Garcia, Shane Spencer
DH (1): Ellis Burks
SP (5): CC Sabathia, Ricardo Rodriguez, Brian Anderson, Jason Davis, Jason Bere
RP (7): Danys Baez, Terry Mulholland, Jake Westbrook, Billy Traber, Carl Sadler, David Riske, Aaron Myette

Guys being sent to the minors include Vic Martinez, whomever doesn't claim the B/U catcher spot, Ben Broussard and Chad Paronto.

Wedge says he wants these guys to play every day and they will surely get their shot later this season, depending on injuries, etc. With Hafner hurting somewhat, it may be sooner than later.

[Max Power]

Any pitcher that throws a strike to Ellis Burks this year is nuts.

[cubfan33]

Max, admittedly I don't follow the Indians much, but why Burks? That sounds like a statement I would make about Barry Bonds.

You know ... I like that lineup. Solid OF, good IF with upside, decent pitching - young but some sponges up front and good depth. I'm not enamored of the bullpen, but if it's just average, that's fine.

I like it ... heck, they MIGHT be in a race with this (and some bad luck to the Twins and Sox.)

[gyb13]

sure will, it's a lineup with a future down the line, but is the future now?
take out Vizquel and Lawton, and you get:
Career PA (OPS)
Karim Garcia 1023 (711) - whose first name is the same as mine
Milton Bradley 791 (665)
Casey Blake 125 (643)
Josh Bard 95 (633)
Travis Hafner 70 (716)
Brandon Phillips 36 (762)
the kids can play. probably. now they just gotta show it.

[Max Power]

Originally posted by cubfan33
Max, admittedly I don't follow the Indians much, but why Burks? That sounds like a statement I would make about Barry Bonds.

He's the only player on that roster who a big league track record who can actually do some serious damage from the batters box.

[Craig S.]

Originally posted by gyb13
Karim Garcia 1023 (711) - whose first name is the same as mine

Gustavo Garcia just doesn't have quite the same ring.

[OaktownTribeFan]

Gammons has praise for Eric Wedge in his latest column:

http://espn.go.com/gammons/s/2003/0321/1527461.html

Ten years from now, we will be wondering why there was any doubt about the Indians hiring Eric Wedge or Seattle hiring Bob Melvin.

[Rajah]

Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan
The Tribe's Opening Day roster appears to be set (with an exception or two), according to CIR:
IF (6): Travis Hafner, Brandon Phillips, Omar Vizquel, Casey Blake, John McDonald, Bill Selby

2 questions: Who's on third?
and...where do you get this current roster info? That is, what is CIR?

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Casey Blake will be on third.

CIR is Cleveland Indians Report, a blog by a rabid and well-informed fan:

http://cir.blogspot.com/

[OaktownTribeFan]

Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan
Casey Blake will be on third.

CIR is Cleveland Indians Report, a blog by a rabid and well-informed fan

You're so right, Ytown. The mere fact that he could write a long paragraph about Jerrod Riggan the other day confirms that fact. I don't know how he does it; I wouldn't have the patience.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by OaktownTribeFan
#4 is Ricardo Rodriguez, obtained from the Cards last year. dodgers, not cards

[Wolf Hopper]

Originally posted by Max Power
9 years ago, Carlos Baerga looked like a first ballot Cooperstown guy - - - you never know..........better to wait and see on Hafner & Thome..........

Hafner is off to an OPS start of .393, thru today. Not exactly busting out of the gate...............

[OaktownTribeFan]

Originally posted by Wolf Hopper
Hafner is off to an OPS start of .393, thru today. Not exactly busting out of the gate...............

Steve, they're already thinking about calling up Ben Broussard from Buffalo, according to Hal Lebovitz, the veteran Cleveland writer. It's a little early, after just 11 games, but apparently Wedge doesn't like Hafner's plate discipline.

[OaktownTribeFan]

At this point in the season, the hitting is abysmal, the fielding's atrocious, and most of the relievers couldn't strike out Ray Charles. Other than those little problems, the team's got a lot of potential. ;)

I like the way Paul Hoynes summed up yesterday's game in the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

Brian Anderson, looking like a man rudely awakened from a deep sleep, somehow pitched five innings yesterday without damaging himself by bumping into the bedroom dresser.

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/sports/1050831333136751.xml

I feel like those groundcrew guys in Major League. "They still stink," yada yada. I've not yet seen them up close & personal (next week when they make the pilgrammage to Oakland will be my first chance), but from what I've read they're not playing sound fundamental ball. Lots of errors, and they're turning singles into triples. Yesterday they played like a little league team. I'm beginning to wonder if Wedge is a capable manager. It's been my experience that when a team isn't playing fundamental baseball, it can usually be traced back to the field general. I'll give him more time before passing judgment, however.

Indians fans can only look to Buffalo and Akron for salvation at this point. And to 2004 or 2005. It's going to be a LONG year for these Indians.

[LibraryLoser]

Actually, Cleveland now has two single A teams in the area too. One in Lake County and one near Youngstown... Lots of prospects to watch!

[OaktownTribeFan]

I'm aware, LL. If you go see the Captains, I hope you have fun.

It's usually a joy to watch those kids, and some of them have potential, but then again most will never reach the majors. I've still got the Indians' media guide from '95, and it's interesting to glance at it from time to time and see just how few made it. For every Brian Giles in the minors, there are three Beau Allreds. ;)

I'm not trying to put a damper on watching the A league teams. Just a grain of salt in terms of evaluating them.

[LibraryLoser]

Sorry. I guess my sarcasm didn't come through. (Not surprising)

The Indians are pushing the minor league teams hard locally this year...

[OaktownTribeFan]

Jody Gerut was called up from Buffalo today, since Milton "The Game" Bradley was sent to the DL with a hamstring pull. Gerut looked very good in CF today. He made several outstanding plays, especially his lunge to catch a drive by Tejada in the 3rd inning that the ump said was trapped. Gerut shows good hustle and great ball-hawking skills. He looked overmatched at the plate, but I'll cut him slack because Halama was mystifying everybody.

Halama had a no-hitter going into the 7th, finally broken up by the much-hyped rookie, Brandon Phillips. If he can get untracked, and Hafner shows what made him so highly-touted at AAA, the offense will gradually come around.

Jake Westbrook has been much-maligned because of his injury history, but he looked like an excellent groundball pitcher today. If I counted correctly, the Tribe made 4 double-plays behind him. Westbrook looks like he has the potential to be a 15 game winner in the near future.

The Indians play hard every game. Even with so many young players, they're giving every team a run for their money. Most games are pretty close. They're showing a lot of hustle, and that's really all we can ask. As Gerut, Hafner, Phillips, and others mature, this team will be a tall order for any good ML pitcher to handle.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

It's telling that Wedge is griping mostly about the veterans -- although Omar has been doing an unheralded good job as the number two hitter (Omar leads the team in rally shares).

What's awful to watch is what they do in late innings. The Tribe is 7-9 in games in which they had the lead at some point. That's bad. Worse, they are 0-8 in games in which they led by TWO runs. That's awful.

Through 6 innings this season (24 games), the Tribe have scored 65 runs and allowed 66 runs -- basically a .500 team. After the 6th, they have been outscored 42-18. It's a team effort -- bullpen woes coupled with terrible late-inning hitting.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Make that 0-9 in games in which they had a two-run lead. Ugh.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Elder was called up from Buffalo yesterday and Aaron Myette was sent down (or DL'd, not sure).

Elder pitched 9+ innings in Spring Training and 12+ innings at Buffalo and has yet to give up an earned run.

Jody Gerut is turning into my favorite player. He hits, he hustles, he makes great catches. He's the anti-Lawton. I always believed that a player who gives it his all will get some slack when he goes into a hitting slump. Gerut is that type of player.

[OaktownTribeFan]

You're right Ytown, Gerut is looking like a good player so far. I liked Joe's quote from CIR the other day:

Speaking of Gerut, I am on the bandwagon. Great diving catch in center last night and he showed a nice arm on a throw to second from the track early in the game.

Plus he hits to all fields. There are several other hitters on the Tribe who could learn a lot by watching this kid's technique at the plate.

Looks like Lawton may FINALLY be coming around with his HR today and 4 hits in the last 4 days. Perhaps it was the April chill that hurt his hitting. We'll see. I'm hoping it's not just another chimaera like last year. Crisp is waiting impatiently at Buffalo, and hitting like a man possessed by the ghost of Tris Speaker. The clock is ticking, Matt.

--
It was just announced on WTAM that Burba's now a Brewer. Jason Rakers also was traded to the O's...details are sketchy right now.

[OaktownTribeFan]

It turns out the Akron Beacon Journal and CIR were both wrong, Santiago's still with the team, and torched the game today. That guy should be sent down or released immediately if not sooner. He brought the old gas can to the mound and torched another one. Why is he still with the team? Naturally the speculation is he's got pictures of Carl Willis in a compromising position. ;)

If Baez is ever "Fireman of the Year," then Santiago will maybe win "Fire Bug of the Year." Fortunately I doubt if Santiago will be around long enough to win any awards.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Damn, Oaktown -- only early May and you're in mid-season form! We haven't even played Detroit yet!

BTW, I got GOOD seats for the game the 19th against the Kittens. Cool thing -- you can print your tickets out on your home PC after you buy 'em online. I thought it was cool, anyway.

I agree with you about CoCo Crisp, but I always thought he'd be replacing Bradley, not Lawton. He will be replacing Lawton -- next year.

[Wolf Hopper]

Anyone have any last comments on the Tribe's prospects for 2003 - - considering the 2993 season is a month old, we should close this one.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Agreed.

One last prospect for 2003: dim.