Smed's College Hoops Power Ratings

[SmedIndy]

OK - joining Massey, Sagarin, collegeRPI, and dozens others, I offer my .02.

My algorithm is simple - I use some of the published power ratings, the Sagarin SOS, and D-1 record, and stir it all together for my list of 1-327.

I think traditional power ratings hurt mid-majors unfairly, and mine bring them up to where they probably should be.

I use this to forecast the NCAA, and more importantly, see who was unfairly left out. And also for giggles.

It may surprise that the moribund Arkansas-Pine Bluff team isn't last. They are not due to their unusually high SOS for a SWAC team.

Top 10 (data as of Sunday night):

1. Arizona
2. Louisville
3. Notre Dame
4. Kentucky
5. Florida
6. Texas
7. Oklahoma State
8. Duke
9. Oklahoma
10. Marquette

Those in danger of unfairly going home - Illinois - Chicago, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Central Michigan, Wyoming.

Bottom 10 -

327. Maryland - Eastern Shore
326. Savannah State
325. Columbia
324. North Carolina A & T
323. Army
322. Southern
321. Nicholls State
320. Campbell
319. Morgan State
318. New Hampshire

[sweaver]

I'd love to see the entire list.....that would soak up some bandwidth. You like 'zona to go all the way?

[SmedIndy]

Right now Arizona or Kentucky....and that pains me to say that being a Hoosier.

I may add one other factor to the formula. I perenially tweek it, but if it adds too much time to compile it I may leave it be.

[Skip]

I'm trying to figure this out ... just what state is the best?? :D

FWIW - I like AZ, FL, or KY at the end. LouKy is playing over their heads, though its fun as heck.

[JamesI]

As long as Kentucky doesn't win it all, I don't care.

[LeGrandOrange]

I never thought I'd see the day where Louisville was a legitimate National Power again. Adolph Rupp would---wait that's the wrong school--Denny Crum would be proud. :)

Hey Smed, where's Gonzaga in your rankings? Top 10 they ain't but I was wondering where you put them.

[SmedIndy]

29th.

Will do this most Mondays, until it's time for Conference Tourneys. Then it's every day!

[pwdennis]

Where is Stetson in your rankings. I would have figured them near the very bottom

[SmedIndy]

They are in the 300 range. I have that at my home computer - but they're part of the non-elite.

[SmedIndy]

Latest top 10:

1. Kentucky
2. Louisville
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. Texas
6. Notre Dame
7. Marquette
8. Wake Forest
9. Kansas
10. Duke

Bottom 10:

327. NC A & T
326. MD - Eastern Shore
325. Savannah State
324. Columbia
323. Southern U.
322. Army
321. Morgan State
320. Nicholls State
319. Lipscomb
318. Campbell

[SmedIndy]

NCAA Projections (the way they probably should be)

1. Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona, Texas
2. Florida, Notre Dame, Marquette, Wake Forest
3. Kansas, Duke, Oklahoma, Dayton
4. Oklahoma State, St. Joseph's, California, Syracuse
5. Xavier, Utah, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh
6. Mississippi State, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois
7. Maryland, BYU, Georgia, Tennessee
8. Missouri, Arizona State, Creighton, Gonzaga
9. Oregon, Cincinnati, Alabama, Auburn
10. Kent State, Butler, Memphis, Indiana
11. Texas Tech, U. Conn, Central Michigan, Michigan State
12. Southern Illinois, DePaul, Colorado, Weber State
13. Fresno State, Manhattan, Penn, La-Lafayette
14. Troy State, NC Wilmington, Charleston, Holy Cross
15. Sam Houston State, Utah State, Valpo, Austin Peay
16. Texas Southern, Wagner, Boston U.
Play In - S. Carolina State vs. Winthrop

On the cusp: UNLV, Western Michigan, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Villanova, Virginia, Minnesota, Boston College, NC State

[Craig S.]

Why does Dayton get a 3, whil Xavier only rates a 5?

[SmedIndy]

Dayton would win the AQ in my scenario- and I think they'd have to beat X in the semi's of the A-10 tourney. That and I think the committee would put Syracuse and Cal ahead of a semi-final loser in the A-10 tourney.

X is 16th in my power ratings currently.