Braves' Offseason: If it's broke, fix it. [MT]

[sweaver]

The Braves, faced with losing aces Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine to free agency, made a swift move to pick up Mike Hampton and yet not have to pay his entire contract. In return, the Braves gave up Tim Spooneybarger, a talented young pitcher with a great name. They are supposed to still have enough money to sign at least one of their free agent pitchers.

Of course, the real weak spot is the offense. What should the Braves do? Trade talk with Marcus Giles is rampant.

[tortured angel]

First of all, Smoltz should go back to the rotation. With both Glavine and Maddux gone he is their best pitcher.

I don't think Giles alone will net anything significant but, assuming they plan on centending this year, McGriff would be a relatvely cheap and popular pickup who wouldn't require a long term deal. If they're relying on Lopez to be the catcher, they need to find a solid backup. I would let Giles and Furcal go in as the starters and hope they don't play themselves out of the jobs.

[JamesI]

I think the Braves will push hard to keep Maddux or Glavine. Failing that, Smoltz will go back to the rotation.
Maybe McGriff to give some power at first, or Jeff Kent at second.

[sweaver]

I suspect Smoltz will remain in the bullpen, with Hampton on hand and Glavine or Maddux likely to resign. I think one year of McGriff, with los dos Francos as pinch-hitters, would be helpful. Them platooning at 3B over Castilla would be helpful as well.

[gyb13]

C Lopez
1B M.Franco
2B Giles
SS Furcal
3B Castilla
LF C.Jones
CF A.Jones
RF Sheffield
C Blanco
IF J.Franco (FA), Helms, DeRosa, Garcia, Lockhart (FA)
OF Bragg (FA), Surhoff (FA), Martinez (FA)

SP Maddux (FA), Glavine (FA), Hampton, Millwood, Marquis, Moss, Lopez (FA)
RP Smoltz, Hammond (FA), Remlinger (FA), Ligtenberg, Holmes (FA), Grybowski

[WiredTiger]

I would move Smoltz back to the rotation and look to fill up on bullpen arms. I think their rotation could be ok with hampton, Smoltz, Millwood, Marquis and Moss. A little young but it would allow them to upgrade at 1B. Instead of trying to sign Glavine for big bucks I would take a chance on paul Byrd. Give him experience around him and make it so he's not the main guy and I think he could succeed. You could then keep Smoltz in the bullpen or move Moss back to the pen.

[sweaver]

The Braves' 40-man roster as of the start of the Winter Meetings:
Pitchers (19)
Belisle, Matt
Bong, Jung
Dawley, Joey
Ennis, John
Evert, Brett
Foster, John
Gryboski, Kevin
Hampton, Mike
Hodges, Trey
Holmes, Darren
Ligtenberg, Kerry
Marquis, Jason
Millwood, Kevin
Moss, Damian
Pratt, Andy
Ramirez, Horacio
Smoltz, John
Sylvester, Billy
Waters, Chris

Catchers (2)
Blanco, Henry
Lopez, Javier

Infielders (11)
Betemit, Wilson
Castilla, Vinny
DeRosa, Mark
Franco, Matt
Furcal, Rafael
Garcia, Jesse
Giles, Marcus
Green, Nick
Helms, Wes
Hessman, Mike
LaRoche, Adam

Outfielders (5)
Aldridge, Cory
Jones, Andruw
Jones, Chipper
Langerhans, Ryan
Sheffield, Gary

[sweaver]

Now the rotation stands as Ortiz, Hampton, Millwood, Marquis. Are they still going after Maddux?

[BravesWin!]

They are still going after Greg and he will, in all likelyhood, accept arbitration this week, making the rotation: Maddux, Millwood, Hampton, Ortiz, and Marquis. And I would take the rotation against any other one in baseball.

If Maddux does not accept (very unlikely) the rotation would be:
Millwood, Hampton, Ortiz, Marquis and Trey Hodges.
And again, I'd still take that rotation over most in baseball today.....

Andrew

[WiredTiger]

With Paul Byrd signing you are now talking about a rotation of
Millwood, Hampton, Ortiz, Byrd and Marquis. Not too shabby. And If Maddux signs... that should be interesting. Maddux, Millwood, Hampton, Ortiz, Byrd? Do the Braves have another trade up their sleeves if Maddux signs?

[BravesWin!]

MAddux, Millwood, Hampton, Ortiz, Byrd, Marquis.

You do the Math. Who is leaving, where are they going, and whats coming to ATL in return?

Andrew

[gyb13]

Maddux
Millwood
Ortiz
Byrd
Hampton
Marquis

can they move marquis for a 1B or a 3B or a LF (to move chipper back to 3rd)?

[mougalian]

I heard the Braves are considering trading Kevin Millwood now that Maddux has accepted arbritration. Why would they do this? They can't move Smoltz back to the rotation if only because the bullpen is weaker than it has been in the past. With the additions of Hampton and Byrd, why move Millwood?

[JamesI]

Originally posted by gyb13
Maddux
Millwood
Ortiz
Byrd
Hampton
Marquis

can they move marquis for a 1B or a 3B or a LF (to move chipper back to 3rd)?

I think Ortiz is more likely to move then Marquis or Millwood.

[gyb13]

why oh why did they move Millwood for Johnny Estrada?

that weakens the starters, the bullpen, and does not improve the offense.

and i thought schuerholz was doing a nice job this offseason.

[mougalian]

Now when I suggested the Braves might be TRADING Millwood, I never thought they'd be giving him away. In their own division, no less. Suddenly, the less-able team owners in my fantasy league seem to be on par with actual owners in Major League Baseball. This is the most lopsided "trade" in recent memory. At least the Indians got prospects for Colon...

[sweaver]

Schuerholz says this was a trade he had to make for the economics of it, and the Phillies were the only team willing to take on the salary of Millwood. Left unanswered (and possibly unasked) was the question of why the trade was made now: why not wait a couple of months, and see if you could get more than a good-field/no-hit catcher who has already shown his stripes, in 2001.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by sweaver
Schuerholz says this was a trade he had to make for the economics of it, and the Phillies were the only team willing to take on the salary of Millwood. right. they needed to move millwood's $4 mil salary after maddux's acceptance of arbitration. so schuerholz shops around for, oh, 24 hours???

[mougalian]

Not sure how much Millwood is making this season (like $4 million?) but even with salary arbitration in Millwood's near future, how can this be a smart move? If Maddux doesn't sign on for a multi-year deal, then they'll have plenty to pay Millwood for the 2004 season. This move is so suspect, that I wonder if the Braves know there is something wrong with Millwood physically. But wouldn't that void the trade if there were? Millwood could have been the starting point for a monster trade for the Braves as they need a little more O to go with the now diminished pitching staff. I still can't believe Millwood for Johnny Estrada... It's just brutal.

[RichG]

Originally posted by sweaver
Schuerholz says this was a trade he had to make for the economics of it, and the Phillies were the only team willing to take on the salary of Millwood. Left unanswered (and possibly unasked) was the question of why the trade was made now: why not wait a couple of months, and see if you could get more than a good-field/no-hit catcher who has already shown his stripes, in 2001.

I agree with everything you write. It's not like he couldn't wait a few days / weeks / months to get the equivalent of Estrada who I think is decent. I hope Maddux likes to pitch to him.

[sweaver]

In defense of Schuerholz, it must be said that there is no reason to believe Millwood will win 18 games again next year, as before last year's success he was coming off two bad seasons in a row, going a combined 17-20. But, his K/W numbers have always been good, even when he was hurting, and he was certainly worth more than Johnny Estrada.

Still, the Braves' rotation now stands as: Maddux, Ortiz, Hampton, Byrd, Marquis. That's a winning group, especially with Maddux returning to the front of the rotation. Chipper and Sheffield provide them with two formidable hitters, Andruw Jones is quite good as well. Now we must see if Giles and/or DeRosa gets the PT at 2B, which will improve the offense, and if Furcal's OBP can recover to something close to his rookie (2000) levels. A new 1B (or LF, with Chipper going to 1B) would be helpful, as the Franco/Franco platoon will probably not produce at last year's level. Then, Matt Franco might spell Castilla at 3B.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by sweaver
In defense of Schuerholz, it must be said that there is no reason to believe Millwood will win 18 games again next year, as before last year's success he was coming off two bad seasons in a row, going a combined 17-20. But, his K/W numbers have always been good, even when he was hurting, and he was certainly worth more than Johnny Estrada.

I would have kept Milwood and let Maddux walk. Maddux is not likely to sustain success, and Milwood, I predict, will be a better pitcher than Maddux over the next five (5) years. Maddux will have to be an awfully good arbitration year pitcher to make this a good decision. Milwood's acquisition, IMO, puts the Phillies as the team to beat in the NL East, bar none.

[Doc Pontoon]

This trade is such an obvious and ridiculous sham that it fills my head with thoughts of conspiracy. So, let me get this straight: the Yankees are offering Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, Orlando Hernandez, and cash for Bartolo Colon... and Kevin Millwood only nets Johnny Estrada? Schuerholz's explaination that the Phillies were the only team "willing to take on Millwood's salary" is not credible. It is a lie. Shuerholz is a liar. So what are the possibilities?

1) JS deliberately took a dive to spite the team owners after they ordered him to trade Millwood (or somebody) within 24 hours.
2) JS was bribed, or blackmailed, by someone with the Phillies.
3) JS was high on PCP, or having a mental breakdown, or hypnotized, or lost his mental faculties some other way that precludes him from telling the truth due to how humiliating the truth is.
4) JS was promised a job with the Phillies after the end of his current term (kinda like Reagan's monstrously cushy consulting gig with Japan after he left office).
5) JS and Ken Williams switched bodies a la "Freaky Friday".

I'd love to hear other theories, because this trade stinks real bad, and nothing I can think of makes sense. I mean, Millwood for Nick Johnson straight up would have actually been perfect for Atlanta. This trade might singlehandedly put JS behind John Hart for the title of Worst Trader in MLB.

[LisaG]

this millwood for estrada trade is gonna go on those trivia questions, worst trades of all times (ed wade can't believe his luck)
frank robinson for joe shlabotnik
etc
i can't believe that a savvy gm wouldn't have had a backup plan in case maddux accepted arbitration
i can't believe he hadn't checked around to see who would trade someone who can play the infield and HIT for a good pitcher
there is no indication that this is larry anderson for jeff bagwell
i don't get it- scherholz isn't allard baird (sorry KCboomer and rob neyer)
anyone understand this trade? any explanation other than JS suffers from temporal lobe epilepsy and can't distinguish between big and small (like alice in wonderland) during a seizure and signed this trade before the seizure wore off?

even if the braves knew for absolute certainty that millwood would break down opening day and never pitch again, why estrada???? they always have a surfeit of good field no hit catchers for maddux (blanco)

if they really couldn't get anyone other than estrada, why not just release millwood instead of giving him to your closest rival?

[gyb13]

the only explanation I can possibly fathom is that Schuerholz didn't expect Maddux to accept arbitration and that then ownership came to him and told him he absolutely had to be at a certain payroll by the end of the year. that could've been accomplished by releasing Millwood, but I believe they thought it would be a "less bad" PR move to acquire something in return, instead of an outright release. Of course, all other teams (well, the ones who could afford the close-to-10-million Millwood is said to be capable of earning in arbitration) realized this and thus made low-ball offers. I still would've taken the pack of Bazooka Joe's and moved him outside of the division, if not the league.

[Rambis35]

I would imagine the Braves didn't expect Maddux to accept arbitration, but thats no excuse for the trade that was made. First of all, if they Yankees offered Johnson, Rivera, and El Duque for Colon or Vazquez, then I'm almost certain the Yankees would have given up Johnson and Rivera for Millwood. The Yanks would have had a young pitcher who is a potential ace, for less than what they paid for the unproven Contreras. The Braves could have put Johnson at first and Rivera in left, moving Chipper back to 3rd. Maybe the Yankees didn't say they were willing to make this deal, but in time this deal (or something similar) would have been feasible.

If the Braves didn't expect Maddux to accept arbitration, they shouldn't have offered it. I know they wanted to prepare for the worst, but the Ortiz and Byrd moves were still questionable. Ortiz has put together more good years than Moss, but he is not far removed from one not so great season. Moss has only performed well for one year, but he was probably better than Ortiz in 2002. The only guarantee is that Ortiz is more expensive, and money was the reason for the Millwood trade. Byrd was a nice insurance policy, but is far from an established ace, and the few million dollars he will make could have kept Millwood there.

As for Millwood, I'm not sure if he'll be better than Maddux this year. But it wouldn't surprise me if he is just as good. In the last 4 years, he has had a great year, two average seasons, and a very good one once he was healthy again. There is no indication that his health is an issue, so the Phillies are looking pretty good darm good right about now.

So this offseason the Braves have weakened their rotation, their bullpen, done nothing to improve their offense, and they still have Vinny Castilla around to make outs. They are by no means a bad team, and the division could still be very competitive. But the Braves have clearer gotten worse while the Phillies have gotten better at their expense. I can't imagine Atlanta fans are happy at all...

[Sadaharu Oh]

I'm certain that they couldn't have gotten Johnson and Rivera. For one, Johnson and Rivera is worth more than Johnson/Rivera/Hernandez, considering the latter's cost. That's why the Expos had to take him, and pay his salary, in any Colon deal. Second, reality aside, I don't think that Millwood was as *perceived* to be as valuable as Colon. Or Vasquez.

Regardless, they should've been able to get Johnson, whom the Yanks are clearly willing to move.

[sweaver]

So after the Millwood debacle (wouldn't Millwood for Nick Johnson have made sense?), and assuming that Castilla will remain in the lineup, it should look like:
Furcal, SS; Franco/Franco, 1B; C.Jones, LF; Sheffield, RF; A.Jones, CF; Castilla, 3B; Lopez, C; Giles, 2B

Rotation: Maddux, Ortiz, Hampton, Byrd, Marquis

Bullpen: Smoltz, King, Holmes, Haney, Grybowski

Bench: Estrada, DeRosa, Bragg, ?

The lineup will improve if Giles is healthy, or if DeRosa is used instead of Lockhart. I would rather have moved Smoltz to the rotation than signed Byrd, but what do I know? The thing that I can't figure out is, who is on the bench?

[jzmet]

I wonder if I'm missing something here, guys. Admittedly, it seems the Braves were caught a little flatfooted when Maddux accepted arbitration, but why so quick on the Millwood trade trigger? Was there some baseball-specific urgency to making this move so quickly, or was it mgmt wanting to clear payroll before the end of the year? It's entirely logical that the troubles the parent company is having has to trickle down eventually.

Assuming the urgency of this move was ordered from above, it may be indicative of future moves by the Braves. With holes at 1B, 3B, C, and now a gaping one in the rotation, the Braves are already slipping in the NL East--if ownership continues to hamstring John Schuerholz, we may be seeing the decline of a great team.

[Fuzzy Bear]

There is NOT a gaping hole in the starting rotation. The Braves were able to get rid of Millwood BECAUSE they have a solid rotation.

Millwood is better than Steve Avery, in that he rebounded from mediocre years to reestablish himself. Nonetheless, the Braves have been unsusally astute in knowing which pitchers to keep and which to jettison. Every young pitcher that the Braves have traded has either not panned out, or not remained healthy.

They DO have holes at the slots you mentioned; 1B, 3B, C.

If I ran the Braves, I would make an offer to Frank Catalonotto and Jose Cruz, Jr. I would install Cruz in LF, and move Chipper Jones back to 3B. I would also sign Robert Fick to play 1B. There is potentially enough infield offense to carry a catch-and-throw guy behind the plate.

One reason the Braves had to trade Milwood is that another player that they may have liked to have traded, Rafael Furcal, had to stay because Wilson Betemit had a disappointing year in AAA in 2002, and does not appear as if he would hit enough to shift to 3B.

[jzmet]

Fuzz,

All the players you mention would fill necessary holes, but nothing more--granted, I'm a little biased being a Mets fan, but look at this team. Even if they were to acquire Cruz, Cat, and Fick, does that make them as strong top to bottom as the Phillies right now? No chance, in fact, the Mets without a viable 3B and with Burnitz and Cedeno might still have a better offense.

However, my question still stands, why the extreme urgency to trade Millwood, why did it have to happen so quickly?--something smells rotten in AOL land.

Ok, if you want to go back to Avery and David Nied, we can do that, but this is the 2003 season here and I say the Braves just dropped from arguably the best rotation in the NL East to potentially the 3rd best rotation. There's no argument that Braves coaches have done a great job with their staff(particularly veterans with control and fastballs that max out 85-90), but there is no way you can argue that their staff is better w/o Millwood.

Only time will tell

[Max Power]

Originally posted by jzmet
However, my question still stands, why the extreme urgency to trade Millwood, why did it have to happen so quickly?--something smells rotten in AOL land.

Bid-ness. Big Bid-ness.
Every major company wants to have their firm in line with their budget for 2003 by the end of 2002 - - not some time in 2003.

He shopped. Saw no one would take on 10 mill - - how many teams could? - - and had a corporate gun to his head - - - with a clock ticking.

Spring Training is 2 months into 2003. You can't tell your boss - - oh, yeah, we're 8% over budget, but, we'll get rid of that within a few months - - - not when the % means tens of millions...........

[sweaver]

The Braves have signed Rob Fick to play first base, which may actually give them less production that last year's platoon of Franco and Franco. However, Fick may outperform what that duo would have done this year, and he allows Julio F. to be the #1 pinch hitter, while Matt F. can slide over and spell Castilla at 3B, which could only help matters at that corner of the infield.

[gyb13]

I hope they put him in RF some, shift Sheffield to LF, Chipper to 3B and bench Vinny Castilla...

[sweaver]

I think it makes more sense to put Fick at 1B, play Matt Franco at 3B and bench Castilla. Or at least platoon Franco and Castilla. I suspect Cox will stick with Vinny, however.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by Max Power
Bid-ness. Big Bid-ness.


Monkey Bid-ness!

Bowie Kuhn would not let Charlie O. Finley sell off his stars. Why didn't Bud Lite disapprove this trade "for the best interests of baseball"?

[Duque]

Fick in RF and Sheff in LF will make Andruw Jones tired pretty quickly. Not that he isn't already with Sheff in right and Chipper in left.

[Duque]

Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear
Monkey Bid-ness!

Bowie Kuhn would not let Charlie O. Finley sell off his stars. Why didn't Bud Lite disapprove this trade "for the best interests of baseball"?

Once other owners saw Bud was acting to negatively impact their pocketbooks, his tenure might be in jeopardy.

[gyb13]

there's talk of Mark DeRosa competing with Castilla for 3B

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by gyb13
there's talk of Mark DeRosa competing with Castilla for 3B

There's talk about Giles being shifted to 3B as well.

DeRosa would likely be an improvement over Castilla at 3B, but I wonder if he can handle 3B defensively. Most 2B are at 2B because of their throwing arms; they aren't up to playing SS. If that's the case, why put a guy who isn't up to SS at 3B, where he'll have to make longer (albeit fewer) throws?

What the Braves should do at this point is try to collect outfielders. Offer minor league or performance-based contracts to non-tenders and other free agents; make low-level trades and acquisitions for the purpose of creating a LF platoon combination. Move Chipper back to 3B. Move Sheffield to 1B if he's too slow. Collect outfielders who can run. With Fick and Jones, something can be worked out in LF.

There are still some non-tenders out there. If Catalonotto is still available, he'd be a good pickup. He could be penciled in at a number of spots.

I also think that the Braves should sign Rickey Henderson, and platoon him in LF. He'll come cheap, and he can still play.

[gyb13]

Frankie Cat will be TOR's starting RF in 2003.

there are a few OFs still out there, most of which the braves wanna steer clear - Reggie Sanders, Lofton, Justice, Sierra, Rickey, Knobby, VanderWal, Mabry, Gipson, Cruz, Darren Lewis, Gant, Lankford, Dunston, Goodwin....

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by gyb13
Frankie Cat will be TOR's starting RF in 2003.

there are a few OFs still out there, most of which the braves wanna steer clear - Reggie Sanders, Lofton, Justice, Sierra, Rickey, Knobby, VanderWal, Mabry, Gipson, Cruz, Darren Lewis, Gant, Lankford, Dunston, Goodwin.... \

Boy, am I behind the curve on Frankie Cat!:headwall:

That's an excellent pickup for the Jays, BTW.

Jose Cruz, Jr. would be good if he'll sign cheap. I think he's one of those players who is inconsistent from year to year, like Mickey Vernon was. When he's good, he's All-Star.

I would sign Knoblauch to a performance-based contract and see if he could still handle 2B. (I think moving to LF messed up his hitting by putting pressure on him to hit for power, getting him away from the OBP game that makes him valuble.)

How expensive would a Henderson/Lofton platoon in LF be for the Braves? I bet it would be a cheaper option than many, and would be productive, at least for next year.

[gyb13]

it depends on how much they agree on, of course. compare:

Lofton (2001) $8 million
Lofton (2002) $1.025 million
Henderson (2000) $2 million
Henderson (2002) $350 K

[Rajah]

I am back. I know its been a while, but I am going to try to get on for at least a little while everyday now.

Anyway, the subject at hand, the bizarre offseason of my Braves.

1. Keith Lockhart is DEAD. HURRAH!!!! HE IS GONE!!!!

2. This can only bode well for the Braves offense. I expect improvement. I think that Fick will be an upgrade at first. If they can keep vinny on the bench, then things should only improve. An infield rotation of Fick, Giles, Furcal, M. Franco, and DeRosa, while by no means great, should be better than last year.

3. Millwood. Obviously this is the big story. I feel that its a big...ummm...nasty message from Shuerholz to the AOLTimeWarner guys for losing money and making the Braves hold their salary down. Makes me wish Ted would by the team back. Also makes me wonder if John is planning on stepping down in the near future.

4. Rotation. I'm a bit iffy on Maddux, Hampton, Ortiz, Byrd and Marquis. I'd be a bit more comfortable with Maddux, Smoltz, Hampton, Ortiz, and Byrd. Marquis could then work long relief, spot start, and take over for Byrd around the time he inevitably returns to his historical norms. I'd have been far more comfortable with Smoltz, Millwood, Hampton, Moss, and Marquis. Oh well.

5. Bullpen. Not worried in the least. They'll just go out and retread some garbage and have a damn fine bullpen to show for it. Pretty Typical.

6. Conclusion. The offense will be better. Would be nice if Javy had never been given that option year (I wouldn't have been upset if he was playing elsewhere the past few years). Coulda used that money on Millwood. I wouldn't be surprised if the injury addled Wilson Betemit doesn't hit the Bigs. I still expect him to be a good player. The pitching staff should pull through and still be pretty good. Its a gamble with Hampton and Ortiz, and Byrd, but I think it'll pay off in the long run. (I wonder if they are opening up holes for some of the minor leaguers in the next few years...)

C Javy/??
1b Fick
2b Giles/DeRosa/Betemit
3b M. Franco/Giles/DeRosa/Castilla
SS Furcal/Betemit
LF Jones
CF Jones
RF Sheffield

Still too many replacement level/utility types, but better than J. Franco, Lockhart, and Castilla.
It'll be a tight race between Atlanta and Philly. Depending on what happens between now and April, it could change.

[gyb13]

add Venafro to the makings of the 2003 reclamation project bullpen

[gyb13]

and Roberto Hernandez.

here's a guy who has made at least $4 mil a year since 1997 ($6+ since 99).

he signed for 600K + the chance for 400K in performance bonuses.

[sweaver]

In spite of the many changes this offseason, I still like the Braves for the East division crown. The rotation is certainly not as good as it was last year, but it is still the best in the league. The bullpen will be reconstructed, but that's an annual thing in Atlanta.

The key to the Braves' season is whether the offense can improve. Certainly Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield are outstanding hitters, and Robert Fick should add a good bat in support, as does Andruw Jones. The key is decreasing Castilla's at-bats, perhaps by spelling him with displaced Matt Franco. And with Lockhart gone, the offense at 2B can only improve, with Giles and/or DeRosa soaking up the PT.

I keep waiting for a Rafael Furcal emergence. If it's going to happen, this would be a good year.

I see the Braves coming in at 90-95 wins.