Pirates' offseason: If it's broke, fix it.

[sweaver]

The Pirates have a great player in Brian Giles: should they follow the Baseball Prospectus model, and try and trade him for three good players to jump-start the rebuilding process? Or hang on to him, and build around their star?

[JamesI]

Trade him. Giles is great, but in the right deal it would be better for the Pirates to get good young prospects and build for 2004 or 2005.

[Alan Smithee]

the bucs problem is that they have been rebuilding for 10 years. they need to start building and I cant think of a better player to build around. IF they get into that cycle of trading quality ballplayers for prospects they become the KC A's of the 50's.if you do it once in a while thats fine but if you dump every good player you have for more prospects you will never get anywhere.

[WiredTiger]

I would trade him but only if I could get good value in return. I think it would be a different story if he was 27 than if he was 32. Trade him and get some building blocks for your franchise.

[sweaver]

I really see the Pirates as at the same place the Twins were a couple of years ago. They have the basis for a good rotation, with Wells, Fogg, and Benson, especially since Benson should be fully healthy this year. Mix in a couple of journeymen or youngsters, and that's a strength. They have a foundation for an offense, with Giles in place, Aramis Ramirez hopefully recovered from his ankle injury, and Kendall a capable hitter. Getting Kevin Young out of the lineup should be a priority. He would be better used as a corner infield backup and pinch-hitter, with Craig Wilson as the regular 1B. I would give Adam Hyzdu some PT, perhaps as a platoon RF with Armando Rios.

Reese and Wilson will be the DP combo, which provides good defense but no offense. Therefore, the key becomes CF. If the Pirates could get a good defensive CF who can key the lineup from the leadoff spot, they would be a wild-card contender.

There is talk about moving Kendall to CF, and installing Humberto Cota as the regular catcher. Kendall has the speed to do it, and the Pirates best minor league position is catcher, with more depth behind Cota.

[gyb13]

C Kendall, Osik (FA)
1B Young
2B Reese
SS Wilson
3B Ramirez
LF Giles
CF Hyzdu
RF Wilson
IF Nunez, Benjamin (FA)
OF Mackowiak, Hermansen, Rios
SP Benson, Fogg, Wells, Meadows, Arroyo, Anderson, DWilliams
RP MWilliams, Villone (FA), Beimel, Boehringer (FA), Lincoln, Lowe, Sauerback

[sweaver]

The addition of Randall Simon, likely to platoon with Kevin Young at 1B, moves things around a bit. It means that Craig Wilson's PT, if any, will likely come in RF. He may have to battle Rob Mackowiak, a McLendon favorite, especially if a CF is added.

Edit from gyb's list Hermansen, traded to the Cubs, and Rios, a FA. They might try to re-sign Rios at a more than 20% cut. RP Sean Lowe is also a FA.

[clemente21]

Giles played 441 innings in CF in 2001. With 2B/SS both serious offensive liabilities, I'd have to sacrifice outfield defense and move Giles back to CF, unless Kendall can really play CF. At least they'd have six acceptable hitters in the lineup.

I'd be concerned about Cota's ability to call a game for the Bucs' younger pitchers. Maybe 2 days/week (for Benson and a journeyman #5 starter).

But the bigger question to me is what All-Star caliber player would consider moving to Pittsburgh?? It's a shame, because Pirates fans deserve better and PNC is a beautiful place in which to play baseball.

[sweaver]

The Pirates' 40-man roster as the Winter Meetings begin:
Pitchers (19)
Anderson, Jimmy
Arroyo, Bronson
Beimel, Joe
Benson, Kris
Bradley, Bobby
Fogg, Josh
Gonzalez, Mike
Guerrier, Matt
Lincoln, Mike
Mann, Jim
Meadows, Brian
Reyes, Al
Sanchez, Duaner
Sauerbeck, Scott
Torres, Salomon
Vogelsong, Ryan
Wells, Kip
Williams, David
Williams, Mike

Catchers (4)
Cota, Humberto
Doumit, Ryan
House, J.R.
Kendall, Jason

Infielders (11)
Castillo, Jose
Meares, Pat
Nunez, Abraham
Ramirez, Aramis
Reese, Pokey
Rivera, Carlos
Simon, Randall
Wilson, Craig
Wilson, Jack
Young, Kevin
Young, Walter

Outfielders (6)
Alvarez, Tony
Davis, J.J.
Giles, Brian
Hyzdu, Adam
Mackowiak, Rob
Redman, Tike

[sweaver]

The Pirates signed Matt Stairs, either to pinch-hit, or more likely to platoon with Craig Wilson in RF. Having another major-league quality hitter can only be a good thing (that gives the Pirates about 6) but I would still like to see Wilson given a chance to play full-time.

[gyb13]

jimmy anderson has been released

[sweaver]

The Pirates now look something like: Reese, 2B; Kendall, C; Giles, LF; Ramirez, 3B; Stairs/Wilson, RF; Simon/Young, 1B; Mackowiak/Hyzdu, CF; Wilson, SS

Rotation: Benson, Wells, Fogg, Meadows, Arroyo/Williams
Bullpen: M. Williams, Boehringer, Herges, Sauerbeck, Lincoln, Beimel

Bench: Cota, Nunez

[clemente21]

The thought of Pokey Reese leading off makes me ill. With this group of misfits, Lloyd McClendon has no chance of managing a ML team in 2004.

Even Chris Singleton or (gasp!) Doug Glanville would have been an improvement here.

[sweaver]

The Pirates have picked up Jeff Suppan, who now becomes their #4 starter. This should give the Pirates the best rotation in the division.

[gyb13]

hahaha....funny, sweav...

benson, wells, fogg, suppan....

and then take your pick from tavarez, d'amico, reyes, arrojo, torres, mahomes, meadows, arroyo

[sweaver]

You'd prefer Morris, Williams, and uh, uh, uh.............?

The Astros could be better. Who else?

[cubfan33]

Cubs are the clear leader in the division, pitching wise.

Wood, Prior, Clement, Zambrano, Estes with Cruz in the pen. Nasty and still with upside. This is a team that lost its ace in Lieber ... and got better!

The Pirates might have the second best. I really think Benson will be back to where he was (think Matt Morris), and I like Fogg a lot.

Astros have Oswalt and a lot of ifs. Cards have Morris and a lot of ifs. (I mean, cmon, ELDRED?) Brewers have Sheets and a lot of suck. Cincy has ... well, not much. Their ace is a recent closer and they're trying something new.

[Doc Pontoon]

Roy Oswalt is better than Mark Prior (and Kris Benson, of the Pirates, about whom this thread is). Wade Miller is better than Kerry Wood (and Kip Wells, ibid). Any other potential Houston starter is better than Estes. The number 5 starters are pick-'ems. Clement is a wild card, but his likely superiority to whichever Astro pitches third best certainly couldn't make up for the Astros superiority at every one of the other three obvious Astros edges.

[Max Power]

Let's not lose sight that this thread is about the Pirates.........thanks.

[cubfan33]

I like Fogg better than Wells, so I'd compare him to Miller ... and there I see a tossup.

Oswalt has been better, but I dont know how long he'll be able to stay healthy. The Astros have success getting the short guys up to he bigs, but havent been able to keep any of them healthy since Ruhle left.

I'll stick with my Pirates as second best. The Astros just have too many unknowns, while the Buccos can cut guys like Jimmy Anderson.

I actually like the Pirates as a surprise team. Anyone with a decent rotation and a guy like Brian Giles can contend, esp in a weak division.

[sweaver]

Giles has publicly volunteered to go to center field, saying he feels more comfortable there than in left anyway. Given that, while he is stretched to cover CF, the Buccos should jump at the chance, since they have no one better to do the job. A defense-first guy on the order of a Shinjo to caddy for him in the late innings would be a good idea, and they can spread out their other guys. Giles in the middle of Stairs and Craig Wilson might be a defensive nightmare, but it would give the Pirates some pop in their OF.

[cubfan33]

I'm of the opinion that if Giles wants CF, you give it to him - not because he's a star, but because there's a better chance to win. Giles immediately becomes the best CF in the league, offensively. Looking at his stats : http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/gilesbr02.shtml
he does seem better in CF.

A Stairs-Giles-Mackowiac/Wilson might be good, or there's still room for someone like Reggie Sanders at a desperation price or Rickey Henderson.

[Doc Pontoon]

I like Fogg better than Wells, so I'd compare him to Miller ... and there I see a tossup.Well, Miller had a 18 RSAA in 2002. Wells had a 17, and Fogg had 0 (zero). Miller's exactly 3 months older than Fogg and has been a better-than-average major league starter for two years already, compared to Fogg's average status in a rotation for one year. I definitely don't see a tossup, especially as Fogg started out well and ended the season not-so-well.

Brian Giles is super-duper good. It's still crazy to think that John Hart traded him straight up for Ricardo Rincon.

[cubfan33]

I like Fogg's upside and see Miller as about at the expected level. You do have great points as usual, Doc.

Giles for Rincon = Hafner for Diaz

[Dizzy Dean]

Will, I don't think you are giving enough credit to Miller. He is already one of the top pitchers in the NL. Fogg still has problems with the long ball and untill he gets his K/BB ratio up to 2.5, the dingers will kill him. Fogg in my mind will never be more than a back of the rotation pitcher. My humble predictions for 2003 30 starts each Miller (18W 2.97era 196k/76bb) Fogg (11W 4.87era 138k/71bb)/ The Pirates did pull off a nice trade in landing Fogg et al and I commend them for that. The Pirates look at lot like the Brewers.... at least the Bucs have a bonafide superstar in Giles.

[cubfan33]

You're right ... my initial impressions were strong on Fogg, weak on Miller. I dont think the difference is as significant as the past data is - I still see Fogg as an upside guy and Miller as "at his level" - but Miller is better ... for now.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by sweaver
Giles has publicly volunteered to go to center field, saying he feels more comfortable there than in left anyway. Given that, while he is stretched to cover CF, the Buccos should jump at the chance, since they have no one better to do the job. giles says that he is more comfortable at CF because of the big left-center gap at pnc...

[sweaver]

The Pirates have some reasons to be optimistic. Not of reaching the playoffs, but of reaching .500.

Brian Giles was the sole offensive force last year, but should have help this year. Aramis Ramirez figures to be better coming off an injury-plagued year, and hope continues for a Kendall recovery. Adding Matt Stairs in the OF mix should help as well.

On the mound, the Bucs are amassing some good arms. Kip Wells and Josh Fogg came in and pitched well last year, and Kris Benson is a year farther removed from his surgery. This should help, and give the Pirates a chance to win pretty much every day, based on their starting pitching.

Another hitter is sorely needed. This team will show improvement.

I predict the Pirates will win 75-80 games.

[gyb13]

according to Stark, the Pirates are signing Reggie Sanders to a one yr, $1 mil deal to be their left fielder. Thus, Giles will shift to CF, and Stairs/Wilson will platoon rightfield....

ideally, though, I'd say they still need a true CF...then they can put Giles in LF, Sanders in RF, Wilson/Simon at 1B, Stairs on the bench, and release Young.

[sweaver]

A true CF would be great, but there seem to be a shortage of them right now, and there just aren't any good ones available.

Sanders boosts the Pirates lineup considerably (since he essentially takes Mackowiak's place, especially) and makes them a possibility for .500, IMO.