BCS/Fiesta Bowl matchup

[sweaver]

Since Skip's "hate ND" thread keeps trying to morph into a BCS discussion, I thought we should have a place for such a thing. The number of unbeatens has seriously decreased this weekend, so what does that do to the likely Bowl pairings?

[LeGrandOrange]

It basically makes Miami and Oklahoma the front runners...and it's a damn shame because I wanted the Irish in the championship game, I'm tired of the Canes, and the Sooners aren't making me all that interested either.
But I don't care about that matchup, I only care about the Rose Bowl...my Cougs might be there this year...

[Craig S.]

I always want the 2 best teams in the championship. To me, that would be Miami and Oklahoma.

Miami's offense is high-octane, but that Sooner defense has speed to burn. And I'm a little worried about Miami's shaky run defense stopping Griffin. At least he's a speed back, and not a power guy like Suggs, so they should be able to handle him.

If Miami loses during the next few weeks - and they have a killer schedule - then Ohio State would likely move in by default unless they lose to Michigan.

[JamesI]

I think we'll see a lot of agreement here. Miami Oklahoma in the fiesta bowl. I don't think either will lose until that day.

[pwdennis]

Miami has some pretty decent teams left to play Tennessee, Pittsburgh & Virginia Tech - it is by no means a given that Miami will emerge unscathed.

Oklahoma's schedule is easier but not pantywaist, and they still need to emerge with the Big 12 Championship

Ohio State vs Bowling Green for the National Championship ?

[CpUltravox]

Forget Miami.. Forget Oklahoma.. Forget Ohio State... Forget even Bowling Green.

Because on the outskirts of Indianapolis, they won another game to remain undefeated and earn a bid into the division 3 playoffs, and with an upcoing clash with winless Hiram, the prospect of Wabash clinching their first outright NCAC title looks certain.

Anyone else find it amusing that they broadcast on W(i)NDY?

In all seriousness, because of the difficulty of the upcoming schedule for Miami and Oklahoma, I think it's likely one of the two will fall, and (hopefully) face Ohio State in the Fiesta.

[Craig S.]

With Ohio State now ahead of Miami in the BCS rankings, what happens if they run the table? Do you think Miami would still have a chance to gain on them?

My take is that Miami's strength of schedule points should jump when they play Tennesse, Pitt and VT. The Buckeyes still have Michigan, but I don't think they'll gain much more in strength. I also think Miami has a chance to retake the top spot in the coaches' poll if they look good in winning their last 4 games.

I also think Miami has the greater chance to gain in the "quality wins" category. They have wins against the 12-13 teams, and if either can sneak into the top 10, it would give the 'Canes some help. Ohio State is getting a 0.6 deduction for beating Washington State earlier, so any WSU loss would also help Miami.

This is too close to call right now. I think Oklahoma is the team least likely to lose, although Texas A&M is no slouch, and the Big 12 championship could bring an interesting rematch against Colorado. Miami has a killer schedule, and any of Tennessee, Pitt or VTU could beat them if they play like they have the last 2 weeks. The Buckeyes have what I think are 2 tough games left - Michigan to finish up, and Purdue this weekend. I know Purdue has a losing record, but they barely lost to both Iowa and Michigan.

I'll still go with Miami-Oklahoma, but the good 'Canes better be ready to go at 3:30 this Saturday.

[sweaver]

Oklahoma looks to have the clearest path to the Fiesta, with Miami probably rising to the #2 spot if they can win out. Ohio State will have to keep winning and hope one of the others lose.

[rcartman28]

I'll stick to my previous guess of Miami and Oklahoma playing in Tempe and Ohio State making it only if one of those two slip during the next month. I think the Buckeyes will run the table, but I wouldn't bet the house about both Miami and Oklahoma doing it, too.

I am rooting strongly for Tennessee on Saturday against Miami, though......go Vols !!

[KCBOOMER]

Right now it is down to Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Miami with Oklahoma and Miami having the edge due to games they have already won (Oklahoma) or games to be played (Miami).

The problem Oklahoma has, and it is no little thing, is the B1g 12 has one of those goofy "conference championship" games. Right now the odds are they will play Colorado who they just beat last Saturday. The Big 12 has a 50% kill rate in this game for the better team getting beat.

[soxfan121]

If Miami wins out and DOESN't end up in the National Championship, the BCS will be laughed out of town. Miami hasn't lost in over 2 years, is the reigning National Champ, and SHOULD BE, come hell or highwater, in the game again this season (again, assuming they win out).

As for the other team, as long as it isn't the Bucketheads from OSU, I'll be happy.

[moose]

espn claimed that if everyone wins out, it will be miami v. okla.

it's stupid for a computer to disagree with the AP poll so obviously. the coaches poll is silly, since most coaches don't even (a) really know or (b) participate.

[CpUltravox]

Neither do most of the writers.

[moose]

Originally posted by CpUltravox
Neither do most of the writers. at least the writers are actually watching the games...

[Craig S.]

Originally posted by moose
at least the writers are actually watching the games...

I think that's the writers' advantage. Coaches usually focus only on teams in their conference, or on that particular year's non-conference opponents. It's tough to watch many games when your whole Saturday is spent coaching.

Not that writers are perfect - they often have heavy biases - but they at least take a more global view of the college game.

And I would take coaches or the media over the computers.

[moose]

Originally posted by Craig S.
I think that's the writers' advantage. Coaches usually focus only on teams in their conference, or on that particular year's non-conference opponents. It's tough to watch many games when your whole Saturday is spent coaching.

Not that writers are perfect - they often have heavy biases - but they at least take a more global view of the college game.

And I would take coaches or the media over the computers.
to summarize our agreement:

writers are better than coachers which are better than computers.

each is flawed.

the only system that wouldn't be flawed would be a two-man vote comprised of craig s. and moose. :D

[Craig S.]

Originally posted by moose
the only system that wouldn't be flawed would be a two-man vote comprised of craig s. and moose. :D

Exactly!

[Skip]

Originally posted by moose
the only system that wouldn't be flawed would be a two-man vote comprised of craig s. and moose. :D Half right.

[CpUltravox]

Which half? Certainly not the WAC half.

[moose]

Originally posted by CpUltravox
Which half? Certainly not the WAC half. Stop slandering Craig S. he's a moderator and i, for one, won't stand for it. :D

[Craig S.]

First Notre Dame, now Oklahoma.

What a great time to be a Miami fan!

Miami still has a tough schedule, but I will make this prediction - If it comes down to the 'Canes vs. Ohio State, you'll see another national championship like last year's cakewalk against Nebraska.

Really, I still think Oklahoma, along with Texas and maybe Iowa, are all stronger than Ohio State.

Now, if Miami loses, it will be really interesting to see who makes it.

[CpUltravox]

They may all be better than Ohio State - but we still have what is considered the second best win of any team - a drubbing of Washington State.

Ohio State/Iowa for the National Championship!

[Craig S.]

Originally posted by CpUltravox
Ohio State/Iowa for the National Championship!

Aagh - my nightmare!

If Ohio State loses and Miami wins out, what then? Would it be Texas, or would Oklahoma jump back in? I guess that Big 12 title game would become more important.

[JamesI]

Miami is basically a lock now. With Va tech losing to Syracuse :D
Miami has the big east locked up. If Ohio State can win out, they're in if not, I think Oklahoma gets back in.

[Craig S.]

Originally posted by JamesI
Miami is basically a lock now. With Va tech losing to Syracuse :D

I hope you're right, James. I still worry about both the Pitt and VT games. At least they're both at home, which should make things a little easier.

Miami seemed to be able to control the run game after the Vols' first possession. That's what they'll have to do against Suggs and Tech. It should be interesting to watch the 'Canes secondary against Pittsburgh's passing game.

[moose]

Originally posted by Craig S.
I hope you're right, James. I still worry about both the Pitt and VT games. At least they're both at home, which should make things a little easier. me too - im excited, but cautious.

[JamesI]

Originally posted by Craig S.
I hope you're right, James. I still worry about both the Pitt and VT games. At least they're both at home, which should make things a little easier.


Craig, if my Orangemen can beat VT, Miami shouldn't have a problem. I'm not a Cane fan, but I think they are the best team and deserve the shot at a championship.

[sweaver]

VT can shut down Miami's running game. If Dorsey can still pass, Miami wins. If Tech can slow down the passing game too, they will win.

Long odds, but any longer than other upsets we've seen?

[CpUltravox]

Ohio State/Iowa.. nightmare?? Hardly! Big Ten battle for the national title... bringing our 7-3 style games back to national prominence.

Actually, I was much happier to see Oklahoma go down than Miami - as Ohio State looks to match up MUCH better with Miami than Oklahoma. Oklahoma is a much better run-defense team.

Here's a question - and although I know moose and Craig don't want to face it, even as a hypothetical, I still would like to know...

If Miami somehow loses, and Texas loses again... and miraculously it ends up Ohio State/Washington State - would they play in the Rose Bowl or Fiesta? I have a hunch it's Fiesta - but I'd LOVE for it to be the Rose...

[Craig S.]

CPU - They would still play in the Fiesta. The Rose Bowl would have to choose 2 teams from the top 12 in the BCS rankings, and you could end up without a Big 10/Pac 10 matchup in the Rose. So you could have Michigan-USC, but that's about the only matchup you could get if OSU-WSU were to make the big game.

And while I don't want Miami to lose, I would much rather see Ohio State win a national championship than Texas. I know it would make a lot of people here very happy.

[CpUltravox]

That's a shame, and it's really what I dislike most about the BCS. Traditional matchups should continue in the bowls if possible. The BCS ratings today should be very telling - because there's a host of interesting situations should OSU or Miami lose (namely, if Ohio State loses - and Oklahoma and Ohio State each have one loss and are ranked below teams they beat, Texas and Washington State, respectively).

It'll also be interesting (if inconsequential) to see whether Ohio State or Miami is ranked #1 this week)

[moose]

i love the polls - espn/usa today has texas 3 spots ahead of a team that blew them out.

[CpUltravox]

Lose early - the secret to BCS success.

[rcartman28]

Texas number 3 ??? Bleech :makepuke: And ranked three spots above a team that kicked their butts. They would be the one team I would root for Miami against in the Fiesta Bowl. I am praying for Ohio State to win out, even though they will be huge underdog against the Canes. Washington State vs Iowa (after all, they did destroy Michigan at the Big House) would be a very intriguing Rose Bowl matchup......

[moose]

Originally posted by CpUltravox
Lose early - the secret to BCS success. only the bcs secret because it's the secret of the polls.

[CpUltravox]

Actually, that's always been the secret. Which doesn't make it much of a secret - but nonetheless....

Wouldn't Texas/Washington State for the National championship with 2 of Oklahoma/Ohio State playing in the Rose Bowl seem a little disingenuous?

[Craig S.]

Looking at the 4 computer polls that have released rankings for this week, it looks like Miami may have gained slightly over OSU. Of course, there are still 3 who won't release their rankings until the BCS poll is made public. Miami should also gain slightly on an increase in their strength-of-schedule ranking.

The 2 teams that seemed to gain the most in the computer rankings seemed to be USC and Washington State. The Trojans actually jumped from 9th to 3rd in the Sagarin rankings.

I'm interested to see how close Oklahoma and Texas come to Miami and OSU.

[plasticbryan]

I think, as most sports fans agree, that the whole BCS is a sham. Last week when the undefeated champions of 2001 drop to #3 in the coaches poll it was for two reasons. 1) They struggled for over 3 quarters with a weak Rutgers team. 2) THEY WERE RATED #3 by the BCS. Which I think influenced the voters of both polls. I am originally from Ohio and I would love to OSU in the battle for the mythical National Championship, I would prefer to have the whole BCS mucked up by having 7 or 8 teams with one loss, all claiming that the are better than the others. Bring on a tourney!

[Ytown Tribe fan]

The BCS could be fixed, but it would offend all the pollsters and computer geeks.

The BCS contains schedule strength and quality wins and losses in the point system. If they eliminated the AP and ESPN polls and the computer rankings and went STRICTLY with the schedule strength and quality wins, they'd have a decent basis for a four- or eight-team playoff which would incorporate the Bowls as playoff games on a rotating basis.

This is hardly an original idea, but it beats the current system. As I said, no one would go for it because the AP and ESPN love to rate teams.

[Craig S.]

Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan
The BCS could be fixed, but it would offend all the pollsters and computer geeks.

The BCS contains schedule strength and quality wins and losses in the point system. If they eliminated the AP and ESPN polls and the computer rankings and went STRICTLY with the schedule strength and quality wins, they'd have a decent basis for a four- or eight-team playoff which would incorporate the Bowls as playoff games on a rotating basis.

This is hardly an original idea, but it beats the current system. As I said, no one would go for it because the AP and ESPN love to rate teams.

If you go strictly with strength of schedule and quality wins, wouldn't it still be either the computer geeks or the AP people deciding what qualifies as a quality win? The rest of it sounds okay.

I agree with the playoff idea. I think teams could lop off a couple of the patsy games they play every year (Miami vs. Troy State), leaving time in December for the playoffs. These would culminate with the National Championship sometime after January 1st.

I may be one of the few who believes that there's some validity to the computer rankings, if only to serve as a counterbalance to human error and bias. I think keeping the current system, but expanding the field to 8 teams, would eliminate the whole Oklahoma-Miami-OSU type argument we've seen here. Sure, the battle for 8th spot might raise issues, but not nearly on the level of an undefeated team not making the big game.

And you should know that it's really hard for me to stick up for anything to do with the BCS after the way Miami got screwed 2 years ago.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Originally posted by Craig S.
If you go strictly with strength of schedule and quality wins, wouldn't it still be either the computer geeks or the AP people deciding what qualifies as a quality win

Here's what I meant. There would be no rankings of teams before they played a game, no ESPN or AP polls and no computer rankings.

The three components of the BCS ranking total would be:

Schedule Rank - Rank of schedule strength compared to other Division I-A teams of actual games played divided by 25. This component is calculated by determining the cumulative won/loss records of the team's opponents (66.6 percent) and the cumulative won/loss records of the teams' opponents opponents (33.3 percent). Only games against Division 1-A schools would count.

Losses - One point for each loss during the season.

Quality Win Component - The quality win component will reward to varying degrees teams that defeat opponents ranked among the top 10 in the weekly standings. The bonus point scale will range from a high of 1.0 points for a win over the top ranked team to a low of 0.1 for a victory over the 10th-ranked BCS team. The BCS Standings at the end of the season will determine final quality win points. If a team registers a victory over a team more than once during the regular season, quality points will be awarded just once. Quality win points are based on the standings determined by the subtotal. The final standings are reconfigured to reflect the quality win point deduction.

(The above component descriptions are directly from ESPN.com's BCS page.)

Teams would be rewarded ONLY for beating other Division 1-A teams with winning records who also beat teams with winning records. The tougher the schedule, the higher the team would rate.

Tell you what -- it works well in Ohio high school football.

The only extent to which a computer is involved is in calculating the W-L records of opponents from week-to-week. If you wanted to make it more involved, you could rate the losses as well by the quality of the opponent and weigh the "loss" column accordingly (basically what Sagarin does).

[moose]

the problem with strength of schedule is that the 6-3 whose losses are to miami, osu, and texas is much better than the 8-1 team in the WAC

[Craig S.]

The only downside to Miami and Ohio State winning out is that it will give the BCS people a chance to say, "Hey, it all worked out like we said it would." We will then have to wait until next year for the same controversy to rear its head.

I like having some kind of quantitative measure, but the BCS just seems to have some holes. And it's not helping me at all to see Ohio State ranked ahead of Miami. ;)

[SmedIndy]

I know, Craig, I always root for the MAC over most major schools...;)

However, the BCS is the best system ever used. I mean we could go back to the old shennanigans, as in team A beat team B who beat team C so A is better than C.

The Massey Ratings put togehter a chain this year where Methodist (a lowly D-3 school with a 3-6 record) is on an "upset path" to beat Oklahoma:



Upset Path:

645 Methodist beat 597 Emory & Henry
beat 523 Sewanee
beat 488 Centre College
beat 393 Austin Peay
beat 526 St Josephs IN
beat 482 Lincoln MO
beat 445 Lane
beat 429 Kentucky St
beat 342 Ark Pine Bluff
beat 253 Alabama St
beat 295 UT Chattanooga
beat 214 Citadel
beat 125 Delaware
beat 74 Northeastern
beat 122 Ohio
beat 162 Akron
beat 69 Marshall
beat 115 C Michigan
beat 128 Wyoming
beat 52 Air Force
beat 76 Brigham Young
beat 80 Syracuse
beat 25 Virginia Tech
beat 43 Texas A&M
beat 2 Oklahoma

[sweaver]

"Revising the BCS" should be a separate thread. And a spanking good one, I'd wager.

[Craig S.]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
I know, Craig, I always root for the MAC over most major schools...;)

The only downside to working here in Oxford is always having to refer to the 'Canes as "Miami of Florida".

[pwdennis]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
I know, Craig, I always root for the MAC over most major schools...;)




I will be watching a MAC game this saturday at the Citrus Bowl watching UCF play

Go MAC !!