Concern in Yankee land

[BuzzBuzzard]

I'm curious as to how the pro-Yankee faction of this forum is reacting to what I maintain is a spotty start to Rivera's season. I admit, I tend not to watch the Yankees much, but what I've seen in the last two Yankee/Red Sox series is not that dominating Rivera of seasons past. And yesterday, after retiring the first two batters in the 10th, ..........

Of course what I'm alluding to flies in the face of the Buzzard's other starts about early season trends.:mconfuse:

[ChrisCary]

The two time so far that Mariano has faltered, one loss and yersterdays win wasn't alo to be concerned about.

Manny was 0-12 againt Mo, my thought is that Manny goes 0 for lifetime against nobody and you shouldn't even give him the remotest of opportunities to beat you with one hit, we did it, he capitalized on a ground ball up the middle.
not a cheap shot, but not anything to be woried about.
Yesterday the hit to shallow center that scored the sox go ahead in the tenth, Mo sawed the bat off and the bloop landed in, now that was a cheap shot.
his K's have come in dominating fashion and he doesn't seem rattled or concerned.
By the way, Stanton has been awesome!

Here are my concerns as a Yankee fan:

Derek Jeter has 5 errors, our second baseman is a shortstop and our Leftfielder is a second baseman.

The Yankees CANNOT score runners.
Yesterday every run was a solo shot, you can't bank on those especially when one was from Brosius and O'neils had nobody convinced until it landed in the seats.

There has been some sloppy play up the middel and even Scott Brosius, who's hitting has had a few misplays.


They aren't patient, they swing at first pitches and bad pitches, when they make contact they aren't putting solid wood on the ball.

They look complacent


Don't misunderstand me, the things I see the Yankees doind wrong are the things that they've always done better than anybody and I don't believe for a second that the standard of play we've become used to will return.
As it is, they're in god shape and the season series with Boston is as close as it's supposed to be.

But, without a doubt they have some issues to address

[NetShrine]

The Jeter thing - if he's losing it at SS (and it may be the case) - may be their biggest problem. As of now, the can't move him to LF or CF - and they have Henson soon at 3B - and, they have no one else to play SS (Soriano can't). At $180 mill, you like to have a place to play the guy...............

Mo is fine. Just set the bar too high in '96-'00. Rather have him than any other - still.

[nyy26wc]

I am a huge Yankees fan.

However, I believe that Mariano Rivera is one of the most overrated players in baseball (as ALL closers are overrated.

I am also convinced that there will there become a time, almost certaintly during the lifetime of his new 4 year contract, in which he will turn into the kind of pitcher the Yankees aren't going to want around. That what happens to relievers.

I've written a 5 part series on this--

Parts 1 & 2 are at http://www.totk.com/writerarchive.php?fid=LSININS&pid=140

Parts 3-5 are at http://www.totk.com/writerarchive.php?fid=LSININS&pid=192

[NetShrine]

"It's important to be able to pitch a scoreless 9th inning. But, that is no more important than to pitch a scoreless 7th or, for a starter, to pitch a scoreless 3rd."

Agreed - 100%. In fact, sometimes the outs by the pen in the 7th & 8th are bigger - as they tend to come with men on base more than a clean start of the 9th - that most closers get today.

Still, I think a closer - a good one like Mo - helps mentally. How? The other team knows that it's highly remote that they will score in the 9th on that type of guy. So, there's a sense of urgency to get the scoring done before the 9th. It's extra pressure....so it seems to me, at least.

This all said, in terms of getting outs, you can't short Rivera. He contributes more than he gives up.

[nyy26wc]

If that was going to happen, then we could measure this statisticall.

If it was true, teams with better closers would have their middle relievers and setup men get less blown saves, due to the hitters having problems with the increased pressure to score off them.

But, that doesn't happen. Middle relievers and setup men don't pitch better or worse based on the caliber of the closer. Their stats are far more a reflection of their own abilities, with the identity of the show up in the 9th inning pitcher being irrelevant.

[NetShrine]

Interesting approach Lee.

One question, when was the last time a team went on to be a W.S. champ where they didn't have a true "closer"? Gotta be something to that, no?

[nyy26wc]

1997 Marlins

While Robb Nen had 35 saves, he also only had a 3.89 ERA, which gave him a mere 2 RSAA.

For those who don't receive my daily email reports, that means Nen gave up just 2 runs less than the league average pitcher, with the average adjusted to Pro Player Stadium.

[NetShrine]

Isn't an average closer, still, nonetheless, a closer?

I look at Nen in 1997 and see:
73 Games
74 IP
72 Hits
81 Ks
and, OK, 7 HRs and 40 BB
still, he was good for 9 wins, 35 Saves, and only 7 BS.

If this is average, or was then, I would have to think that every team wanted an average closer like this, no?

More so, my question was, when was the last time a WS Champ had nobody as their 9th inning pitcher (aka closer) albeit average, OK, or stellar. Must be like 25 years, no?

To me, without crunching numbers, that means having a closer helps - - for one, the 1986 Red Sox probably wished they had one.

[nyy26wc]

Nen wasn't an average closer, he was an average pitcher.

Since closers tend to be a few runs, but only a few, above average, that would make Nen a below average closer.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by NetShrine
More so, my question was, when was the last time a WS Champ had nobody as their 9th inning pitcher (aka closer) albeit average, OK, or stellar. Must be like 25 years, no?

Well, you brought up 1986. Did the Mets have two closers or two non-closers? During the '86 season, McDowell had 22 saves and Orosco had 21.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
Well, you brought up 1986. Did the Mets have two closers or two non-closers? During the '86 season, McDowell had 22 saves and Orosco had 21.

Buzz - congrats for making "Fan Favorite" on the title.

Two partial closers - which is the same, or better, than a closer.

[willyg]

I think you are being a little too critical of Rivera.

First the contract:

And as far as you think it being a mistake that the Yankees gave him a 4 year deal, I believe with the way the contract is structured (2 guarenteed years, then Rivera can opt out) the Yankees benefit.

Say Mariano goes out and has two "Mariano" years. He has the option to walk away from the last two years of his deal (worth about 21.5 million). At that point the Yanks can either make another deal with Mariano, then it would probably take 12-13-14 per for 3 years, or go in a different direction. Also do not discount the fact that to do any of this he will be walking away from the Yankees, that makes the pr of all this much better. "Fine Mariano, 11 million was not enough to play for the Yankees, fine have 13 and go close for Rockies. Enjoy watching the playoffs.

As a pitcher:

I believe Mariano is the number 1 closer in baseball. Yes others like Benitez or Nen put up sexier numbers, others like Rocker, Koch, or Wagner near 100 with the heat, but with the game on the line, he is second to none. He has proved that time and time again in the biggest stages. Also this isn't like the Eck, this isn't a 3 out closer, Mariano oftentimes goes 4,5, or even 6 outs.

Yes you can make a case that a closer is overated. You pay a guy 5 - 9 million to pitch at most 70 innings (of which half are really ones where the game is on the line, I am talking tough spot, 1 run game) all season.

Once the post-season starts that all changes. No Yankee player has been more valuable during this run than Mo. That is a no-brainer

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by willyg
As a pitcher:

I believe Mariano is the number 1 closer in baseball. Yes others like Benitez or Nen put up sexier numbers, others like Rocker, Koch, or Wagner near 100 with the heat, but with the game on the line, he is second to none. He has proved that time and time again in the biggest stages. Also this isn't like the Eck, this isn't a 3 out closer, Mariano oftentimes goes 4,5, or even 6 outs.

On the first point about being second to none with the game on the line, haven't we seen some chinks in the armor already this year?

As for going 4 or more outs, Torre has said he wasn't going to let him do it this year. If he were, he would not have hesitated to bring him in with the game tied in the marathon in Toronto last week.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
Haven't we seen some chinks in the armor already this year?

Buzz - you sound like Archie Bunker on his second visit to Medieval Times while visiting in Peking.

Mo had one bad game in Boston - bad judgement, pitching to Manny - - and the rest were jam jobs and bloops. Let's look at his numbers in June before we start calling him Jose Mesa.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Net - in case you missed it, Peking changed its name. It is now known as Beijing.

If I am Archie, you are my Meathead.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
Net - in case you missed it, Peking changed its name. It is now known as Beijing.

Doesn't matter what they call it - - until the get a pro basebal team, it ain't on my map. :loud:

Don't mind being your "Meathead" as long as I don't have to move in with you. The PlayStation may keep me up at night.

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by willyg
Once the post-season starts that all changes. No Yankee player has been more valuable during this run than Mo. That is a no-brainer



I dissent.

I've seen a game by game breakdown of Rivera's postseason appearances. The overwhelming majority of his appearances were with a 2 or 3 run lead. Is it really too much to expect a major league pitcher to make it through an entire inning without blowing a 2 or 3 run lead?

Rivera literally could have an ERA in the teens and not cost the Yankees a single game.

What Rivera did was the equivalent of a hitter having a streak of homering at the end of all blow out games. Sure, the homers would be impressive, just like Rivera's performance was.

But, the real effect on winning was negligible.

[NetShrine]

Lee - what's Mo's post-season numbers, in:

W+S/App
H+BB/IP
BB/K
K/IP

Betcha they're stellar. And, regardless of your lead, you still need to get 27 outs to win - - and, Mo has got his share of outs, without much fuss. In the post-season, where everything is bigger, that was be a good thing, no?

[nyy26wc]

I'm not disputing that Rivera's been outstanding in the postseason.

What I'm disputing is how much value was derived from his pitching.

Let me analogize to money--

Let's say you absolutely need something that costs $50. But, let's say you are in a circumstance in which the only thing you could buy is that particular item and whatever you have left over is forfeited.

You have $100 in your pocket. You can get the item you need. The other $50 ends up being worth nothing more than the empty can of Sunkist that's sitting next to me.

That's similar to what Rivera's postseason pitching has been. Anyone could have gotten the same results, saving those games, with a lesser performance.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by nyy26wc
Anyone could have gotten the same results, saving those games, with a lesser performance.

Including Mitch Williams, Armando Benitez, and George Frazier?

[nyy26wc]

As I recall from that game by game listing, the average Yankees lead was a little over 2 runs, with Rivera only being asked to pitch 1 IP the overwhelming amount of times.

It's asking so little for a pitcher to get the job done. Doing what Rivera did was extremely impressive, but a far inferior performance would have generated the same results.

And as far as Benitez, Williams and Frazier, you're talking about 3 of the worst performances imaginable. While the worst of the worst wouldn't have gotten the job done, the adequate, the average and the run of the mill bad would have saved those games.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by nyy26wc
It's asking so little for a pitcher to get the job done. Doing what Rivera did was extremely impressive, but a far inferior performance would have generated the same results.

Can we agree that Mo's performance was exceptional, and therefore an inferior performance would be "average to above average" (say, on the Lee Smith, John Wetteland, Doug Jones level of closers)? If yes, then I would agree that they could have closed those games as well.

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by NetShrine


Can we agree that Mo's performance was exceptional, and therefore an inferior performance would be "average to above average" (say, on the Lee Smith, John Wetteland, Doug Jones level of closers)? If yes, then I would agree that they could have closed those games as well.

We can agree that his performance was exceptional.

But, even an inferior performance, like Armando Benitez postseason level, would have gotten the job done, considering the average size of the leads he had to protect.

[NetShrine]

I think I follow you - in that "why slam the door when simplying shutting it will do?"

But, as a fan, you love to see your guys master and dominate. Or, in my best Arnold voice, "you want to crush your enemies and hear the lamentation of their women." :loud:

[nyy26wc]

As a fan, I agree with you about dominance.

But, as an analyst, I have to go where ever the evidence takes me.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by nyy26wc
But, as an analyst, I have to go where ever the evidence takes me.
As a statistics major in college, one of the first lessons I learned was the evils of mistaking correlation from causation. Statistics can be misleading, or manipulated to show you what you want to see.

Probably preaching to the choir here, but thought it was worth repeating.

[NetShrine]

Buzz, Vince Scully could have saved you a heap of tuition dough:

"Statistics are like a bikini. They show you a lot, but they don't show you everything."

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by NetShrine
Buzz, Vince Scully could have saved you a heap of tuition dough:

"Statistics are like a bikini. They show you a lot, but they don't show you everything."
True, but what of all the other 'education' I received at Rutgers?:beer:

And Scully didn't finish the thought. What the bikini doesn't reveal are the most interesting parts, as sometimes can be said of statistics.

[willyg]

More than Rivera's numbers was the aura he has when he enters the game.

Mariano enters the game, game is over. That more than anything is huge. If the Yankees are ahead in the sixth, you think you only have an inning or two to score then you have to do so vs Mariano.

Mariano throws in effect one pitch, yet you can't hit it.

Lowest ERA in post season history.

Guy never blows a save.

Games so spread out in post season every day you face a rested Rivera.

[NetShrine]

I'm going to make a call on this one - - all views on the concerns in Yankee Land mentioned herein have been expressed, debated, etc. Being fearful of us beating a dead horse, it's now time for this one to come to a close.