cubfan33
09-25-2002, 02:04 AM
Something interesting - yet somewhat obvious - has come up in some of the research that UTK readers are helping with. This is very preliminary stuff, but confirms something that the collection of experts that UTK has put together to help shape the Knife Injury Quotient (KIQ) has seen in their vast experience. There may be a very specific number or percentage that a pitcher can increase in workload from year to year without seeing a significant increase in injury risk. Right now, the number looks like seventy-five percent. In other words, a pitcher that through 100 innings in year one increases his risk of injury by pitching anything greater than 175 innings in year two. This is significant in a couple of ways - one, the Earl Weaver model of breaking in a starter as a long reliever may make sense. Second, it may take only one or two years to build the arm strength of an average player up to the 200 inning level expected of front line starters if they're used frequently. Again, I'll stress that reader John Goalder's research is very preliminary, but very significant to the ongoing search for how to keep pitchers healthy. It also may make a significant case for the four man rotation. John and I are working on a more detailed explanation of his work and his model, which he's calling the "four man controlled" rotation.
If you haven't seen yesterday's UTK @ Fox, go check it out. It's a full article that analyzes how injuries will affect the playoff teams rather than the normal weekly recap of injuries. Look for more like this on Fox as well as more radio reports. If you'd like to hear the Knife on your local sports station, email me and I can give you details on how to let them know.
No single injury may affect the playoffs like the third degree (most severe) shoulder separation of Luis Gonzalez. While initial reports indicated a mild separation, it is in fact as bad as it could be. Gonzo will likely need surgery to make sure his shoulder is in position to heal properly and that ligaments are not torn. The D-Backs face their biggest challenge and it will be interesting to see Bob Brenly and his often inexplicable managerial moves try and get past this crisis. The likely solution is moving David Delluci to left and Rubi Durazo to right field. Remember that Durazo experimented with the outfield during spring training, but never inhaled. While a poor defense is less exploited by pitchers that keep the ball out of play, like Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, this may not only seriously hamper the offense, but hurt the defense as well. The D-Backs evidently have a backup plan that would move Junior Spivey to short, Alex Cintron to second, and Tony Womack to right field, which doesn't help the offense, but seems better defensively on the surface.
Both Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds have missed a couple games with problems that have been reported as "general lower body soreness" for Edmonds and "not something I want to go into specifics about" for Rolen. Both quotes come directly from Tony Larussa, who's apparently now taking over the sports medicine mantle for the Cardinals (the horror! the horror!) Tony should stick to micromanaging the team. The fact is Edmonds is having some swelling in his knees, while Rolen is suffering from turf toe. Both injuries are bothersome, but should be able to be played through for the playoffs. If Larussa really wants to keep his team's injuries secret, he should do a better job of policing his own team's calls to UTK.
Jason Giambi is still having back problems, one he describes as feeling like "a vertebra is moving around back there." Obviously, Giambi is a much better hitter than he is a diagnostician, but Giambi is reported to either be consulting with or has consulted with a chiropractor, something he evidently does regularly. Looking at Giambi's game log, he's still able to be effective and hit the occasional home run as evidenced by his two bombs tonight, but his power numbers are clearly down as evidenced by the reduction in his doubles and home run rate. Is this all the back injury? Probably not, but it can't help. The Yankees can overcome even the loss of Giambi much more easily than the D-Backs can the Gonzo loss, but Giambi is going to be a major part of a Yankees win or loss.
The Twins and their fans are hoping that the injury to Corey Koskie isn't as bad as it looked on SportsCenter. Koskie fouled a ball off what's being reported as his ankle, but looked on the video like his shin. He was able to stay in the game for a bit, but was removed in the next inning. Since Koskie was able to continue, the injury is likely not too serious, but he'll likely be given every opportunity to rest this week regardless. His replacement, Michael Cuddyer, brings up an interesting point - Cuddyer was moved from third to the outfield due to concerns about his defense. However, for short periods of time, Cuddyer could be an adequate replacement at third base, giving his team even more roster flexibility. While Cuddyer and players who've been shifted down the defensive spectrum lose a bit of value in the move, they gain something back by being able to move back in a pinch.
It sounds like something Dan "No People Skills" Duquette might have done - go out and antagonize your team's best player, let it all play out in the infamous Boston media, and risk losing said best player when his contract expires in a few years. I have no idea what the Red Sox are trying to accomplish by trying to get Pedro Martinez to make one more meaningless start, but both sides seem to have dug their heels in on an issue that should be anything but an issue.
The MLBPA has entered a grievance for Pat Meares, claiming that Meares has been healthy enough to play, but that the Pirates have kept him on the DL in order to collect on disability insurance that pays for part of the ridiculous contract Meares was given by Cam Bonifay. Meares had said early in the season that he wasn't able to make a fist or grip a bat and ESPN is reporting that his hand is still not fully functional. The case will go before an arbitrator (Shyam Das) in November, but the outcome may affect how some teams use the DL and the cost of disability insurance for most teams, so watch this one closely.
Vicente Padilla left his start tonight with shoulder tightness. Padilla has fought shoulder problems since around the ASG and hasn't been nearly as effective in the second half. Reports from Philly indicate that there's nothing structurally wrong with the shoulder and that Padilla is simply worn out. The velocity numbers agree with this assessment so some blame has to be dropped in the lap of Larry Bowa and pitching coach Vern Ruhle.
Sources in Miami say that the sprained toe plaguing Preston Wilson has effectively ended his season. Wilson has had a much better year in almost every way compared to last year (professionally and personally), but his high salary makes him a likely trade candidate. The Mets are one possibility in a deal that would swap bad contracts.
If you ever needed more proof that the save stat is worthless, look at the teams that have a closer with 30 or more saves and note how many have a winning record. Now, look at the teams with excellent bullpens top to bottom - Braves, Angels, A's, Diamondbacks, Yankees - and you'll see what really wins ballgames.
Dewon Brazelton of the Devil Rays is done for the year with the infamous dead arm. Brazelton was a top pick last year as hasn't lived up to the billing yet. The Rays have worked him pretty hard, so a dead arm may be the best for all concerned. Remember that a dead arm happens when a pitcher is fatigued but his mechanics prevented an injury. For an interesting perspective on dead arm and many other pitching topics, check the great interview with Tommy John at BP.
Jason LaRue's season is done in anticipation of hernia surgery. LaRue has had a solid season and is one of the better throwing catchers in the major leagues. Unfortunately, the Reds may look to offload him as he heads to arbitration this year. The Reds have Corky Miller to step in if LaRue moves on. Earlier this season there was some speculation that the Rangers would be interested in picking up LaRue to replace Ivan Rodriguez.
Early free agent speculation: Ivan Rodriguez is very interested in Colorado, but the interest may not be mutual at Pudge's current asking price. The Cubs have made some hints that they'd like to get either Tom Glavine or Chuck Finley into the Friendly Confines, but neither move is likely. Omar Daal is a much more likely future Cub. The Cubbies also are taking long, longing looks at Giants Jeff Kent and David Bell for their third base vacancy. Cliff Floyd (currently out with a mild ankle sprain) would like to stay in Boston, but luxury tax concerns may send him to Oakland to fill the current David Justice slot. There's still some confusion over whether the option on Bartolo Colon has been or will be picked up. Either way, don't expect Colon back in Montreal. If Houston has a chance at Roger Clemens, Mike Hampton may be out of luck there. Would the Rangers toss in Hank Blalock to entice a team to eat some contracts for them? One GM says it's a possibility. With Mark Teixeira closer than expected, it's not only possible, it could help the Rangers.
To reader Ari Fleischer, congratulations. We may not always agree, but best wishes on your wedding here in November. Good timing. I'll be back tomorrow with baseball's best injury info. For those of you in the Indy area, I'll be on a remote with WXLW ESPN 950 at Max & Erma's. Come by and have a Guinness with me - heck, buy me one and I'll answer any baseball question you have and toss in a cool UTK mug.
If you haven't seen yesterday's UTK @ Fox, go check it out. It's a full article that analyzes how injuries will affect the playoff teams rather than the normal weekly recap of injuries. Look for more like this on Fox as well as more radio reports. If you'd like to hear the Knife on your local sports station, email me and I can give you details on how to let them know.
No single injury may affect the playoffs like the third degree (most severe) shoulder separation of Luis Gonzalez. While initial reports indicated a mild separation, it is in fact as bad as it could be. Gonzo will likely need surgery to make sure his shoulder is in position to heal properly and that ligaments are not torn. The D-Backs face their biggest challenge and it will be interesting to see Bob Brenly and his often inexplicable managerial moves try and get past this crisis. The likely solution is moving David Delluci to left and Rubi Durazo to right field. Remember that Durazo experimented with the outfield during spring training, but never inhaled. While a poor defense is less exploited by pitchers that keep the ball out of play, like Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, this may not only seriously hamper the offense, but hurt the defense as well. The D-Backs evidently have a backup plan that would move Junior Spivey to short, Alex Cintron to second, and Tony Womack to right field, which doesn't help the offense, but seems better defensively on the surface.
Both Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds have missed a couple games with problems that have been reported as "general lower body soreness" for Edmonds and "not something I want to go into specifics about" for Rolen. Both quotes come directly from Tony Larussa, who's apparently now taking over the sports medicine mantle for the Cardinals (the horror! the horror!) Tony should stick to micromanaging the team. The fact is Edmonds is having some swelling in his knees, while Rolen is suffering from turf toe. Both injuries are bothersome, but should be able to be played through for the playoffs. If Larussa really wants to keep his team's injuries secret, he should do a better job of policing his own team's calls to UTK.
Jason Giambi is still having back problems, one he describes as feeling like "a vertebra is moving around back there." Obviously, Giambi is a much better hitter than he is a diagnostician, but Giambi is reported to either be consulting with or has consulted with a chiropractor, something he evidently does regularly. Looking at Giambi's game log, he's still able to be effective and hit the occasional home run as evidenced by his two bombs tonight, but his power numbers are clearly down as evidenced by the reduction in his doubles and home run rate. Is this all the back injury? Probably not, but it can't help. The Yankees can overcome even the loss of Giambi much more easily than the D-Backs can the Gonzo loss, but Giambi is going to be a major part of a Yankees win or loss.
The Twins and their fans are hoping that the injury to Corey Koskie isn't as bad as it looked on SportsCenter. Koskie fouled a ball off what's being reported as his ankle, but looked on the video like his shin. He was able to stay in the game for a bit, but was removed in the next inning. Since Koskie was able to continue, the injury is likely not too serious, but he'll likely be given every opportunity to rest this week regardless. His replacement, Michael Cuddyer, brings up an interesting point - Cuddyer was moved from third to the outfield due to concerns about his defense. However, for short periods of time, Cuddyer could be an adequate replacement at third base, giving his team even more roster flexibility. While Cuddyer and players who've been shifted down the defensive spectrum lose a bit of value in the move, they gain something back by being able to move back in a pinch.
It sounds like something Dan "No People Skills" Duquette might have done - go out and antagonize your team's best player, let it all play out in the infamous Boston media, and risk losing said best player when his contract expires in a few years. I have no idea what the Red Sox are trying to accomplish by trying to get Pedro Martinez to make one more meaningless start, but both sides seem to have dug their heels in on an issue that should be anything but an issue.
The MLBPA has entered a grievance for Pat Meares, claiming that Meares has been healthy enough to play, but that the Pirates have kept him on the DL in order to collect on disability insurance that pays for part of the ridiculous contract Meares was given by Cam Bonifay. Meares had said early in the season that he wasn't able to make a fist or grip a bat and ESPN is reporting that his hand is still not fully functional. The case will go before an arbitrator (Shyam Das) in November, but the outcome may affect how some teams use the DL and the cost of disability insurance for most teams, so watch this one closely.
Vicente Padilla left his start tonight with shoulder tightness. Padilla has fought shoulder problems since around the ASG and hasn't been nearly as effective in the second half. Reports from Philly indicate that there's nothing structurally wrong with the shoulder and that Padilla is simply worn out. The velocity numbers agree with this assessment so some blame has to be dropped in the lap of Larry Bowa and pitching coach Vern Ruhle.
Sources in Miami say that the sprained toe plaguing Preston Wilson has effectively ended his season. Wilson has had a much better year in almost every way compared to last year (professionally and personally), but his high salary makes him a likely trade candidate. The Mets are one possibility in a deal that would swap bad contracts.
If you ever needed more proof that the save stat is worthless, look at the teams that have a closer with 30 or more saves and note how many have a winning record. Now, look at the teams with excellent bullpens top to bottom - Braves, Angels, A's, Diamondbacks, Yankees - and you'll see what really wins ballgames.
Dewon Brazelton of the Devil Rays is done for the year with the infamous dead arm. Brazelton was a top pick last year as hasn't lived up to the billing yet. The Rays have worked him pretty hard, so a dead arm may be the best for all concerned. Remember that a dead arm happens when a pitcher is fatigued but his mechanics prevented an injury. For an interesting perspective on dead arm and many other pitching topics, check the great interview with Tommy John at BP.
Jason LaRue's season is done in anticipation of hernia surgery. LaRue has had a solid season and is one of the better throwing catchers in the major leagues. Unfortunately, the Reds may look to offload him as he heads to arbitration this year. The Reds have Corky Miller to step in if LaRue moves on. Earlier this season there was some speculation that the Rangers would be interested in picking up LaRue to replace Ivan Rodriguez.
Early free agent speculation: Ivan Rodriguez is very interested in Colorado, but the interest may not be mutual at Pudge's current asking price. The Cubs have made some hints that they'd like to get either Tom Glavine or Chuck Finley into the Friendly Confines, but neither move is likely. Omar Daal is a much more likely future Cub. The Cubbies also are taking long, longing looks at Giants Jeff Kent and David Bell for their third base vacancy. Cliff Floyd (currently out with a mild ankle sprain) would like to stay in Boston, but luxury tax concerns may send him to Oakland to fill the current David Justice slot. There's still some confusion over whether the option on Bartolo Colon has been or will be picked up. Either way, don't expect Colon back in Montreal. If Houston has a chance at Roger Clemens, Mike Hampton may be out of luck there. Would the Rangers toss in Hank Blalock to entice a team to eat some contracts for them? One GM says it's a possibility. With Mark Teixeira closer than expected, it's not only possible, it could help the Rangers.
To reader Ari Fleischer, congratulations. We may not always agree, but best wishes on your wedding here in November. Good timing. I'll be back tomorrow with baseball's best injury info. For those of you in the Indy area, I'll be on a remote with WXLW ESPN 950 at Max & Erma's. Come by and have a Guinness with me - heck, buy me one and I'll answer any baseball question you have and toss in a cool UTK mug.