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cubfan33
08-08-2002, 12:04 AM
There's simply no excuse for not having the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia. If you're serious about baseball, this tool is simply the most powerful yet easy to use piece of software you can find. If Bill James and Will Carroll use it, shouldn't you? Check it out at www.baseball-encyclopedia.com now.

Has anyone noticed how old the Yankees are looking lately? Rules change or not, the Yanks and Braves look to be sliding back to the pack over the next few years, just like Cleveland before them. If they finish in last, could the Yanks be called small market?

Thanks to all who wrote about the Metsonline comments I made. I realize that it wasn't the Mets that sent the latest in a series of cease and desist letters to the guy, but unlike the Astros, no one from the Mets organization stepped up to figure out an equitable solution so I'll get on them for that. I really, really enjoy some of the sites I've found that are team specific like Twinsgeek, Newberg Report, and CIR ... if you have one you like, be sure to email me and share it.

It is very significant that the MLBPA put forth a detailed proposal today for random drug testing. I won't go into the details here, but it goes beyond what I really expected them to do and I think it addresses the issues as close to perfectly as possible, given the precarious situation both sides find themselves in. While I don't expect the owners to rubber stamp the proposal, there really isn't much there I can see the owners would argue about. Don't think, however, that this ends all the talk of steroids and other performance enhancing drugs. What we'll see now is a never ending chase, much like the NFL has, trying to ban a substance after players find it gives them an edge or when they find a good masking agent. We'll see players willing to head further to the edge to find that edge and sadly, some might not make it back. Moreover, with the progress of research, this may all be moot in the matter of years. Check this article for more details, but I'll take today's action for what it's worth - a good first step and the most hopeful thing I've seen in a while.

How likely is Barry Bonds to hit #600 tonight? As long as he's facing Kerry Wood, not very likely. As he gets into the bullpen, he may have a better chance. Brian Runge will be behind the plate and according to data I was shown, games in which Runge is behind the plate, there are an average of 2.0 homers, which is a bit below the overall average for umps. (More on this data in an upcoming feature.)

Roger Clemens was activated, went 106 pitches against the Royals, struck out eight and got the win. I think that says "healthy" about as well as anything. The Yanks are also moving faster than expected with Mariano Rivera. Published reports indicate that he'll be activated tomorrow after pitching effectively last night. No one is saying what changed, so this is definitely something to keep an eye on. Looking at velocity data, I'm more and more worried about Mike Mussina. Not only is he below his expected regular velocity, he's actually below the level where I would say he needed to be pulled. His motion looks the same in the clips I have, but his arm is not at the same speed. I hope to get some better clips and get one of the pitching gurus to comment soon.

The Yankees also are watching Nick Johnson closely and he'll likely have an MRI soon. He left tonight's game with an injured wrist and thoughts of his lost 2000 season immediately came to mind. That injury was never accurately diagnosed and remains a major concern. Any undiagnosed injury brings questions, either of the player and of the medical staff who treated him.

The Cubs got something of a shock yesterday when Jon Lieber was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament by Jim Andrews. He'll undergo surgery tomorrow and has likely pitched his last game for the Cubs. While it sounds harsh, the Cubs will likely buy out his option and make Lieber a free agent. A team hoping to contend in 2004 could do worse than to sign Lieber and wait a year for him. It will probably be money well-spent. Anyone clinging to the idea that pitch counts alone predict problems should check his game log. The Cubs will get a chance to figure out who will fill out the back of what amounts to a great rotation for 2003 over the next month or so and could hit the free agent or trade market with the money they had ticketed for Lieber.

Another pitcher with problems is Woody Williams. Maybe the hopes of the Cardinals weighed him down, but his velocity and control were not sharp in a bullpen session today. He'll likely have a couple more throwing sessions with Dave Duncan, a couple simulated games, and some rehab starts. The Cards are not backing off the late August timeframe for Williams, but its clearer now why Woody's agent is pushing for an extension - if he's rushed back, it may become an insurance policy.

Eric Milton's knee "gave" while he was warming up and it turns out to be a torn lateral meniscus. Once the swelling is down, Milton will have arthroscopic surgery. Published time frames are at four to five weeks, but if Milton is able to keep his arm active during the first two weeks, he may be ready to return before that. The Twins can coast to the division title, but will need Milton to get back, get healthy and get sharp to compete with the "big markets" come playoff time. Johan Santana will likely get the starts while Milton is out.

I'll close out this bad day for pitchers with some shorts: Chan Ho Park is on the DL with a blister, opening up another rotation slot for the ongoing search for an effective starter in 2003. Aaron Myette, Joaquin Benoit, and Rob Bell are the usual suspects. Todd Ritchie was placed on the DL with some excuse to keep him from going out there and making the White Sox trade look worse while also avoiding twenty losses. Rolando Arrojo is on the DL with back and shoulder injuries and may be done for the year. Oliver Perez, one of the best young pitchers I've seen this year, was shut down with a sore shoulder. The Padres have been very conservative with their young hurlers - too conservative if you ask Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko - so this is no big worry for the long term. John Franco is throwing again after Tommy John surgery earlier this year. He still has quite a ways to go, but nice guys deserve notice.

I hate Jeff Bagwell.

Johnny Damon is nursing a sore knee. He'll likely get a bit more rest as Grady Little is forced to juggle four outfielders into three positions and the DH slot while trying to remain competitive. Look for Damon to miss more games on turf and day games after night games. If it matters in your league, Trot Nixon may play some CF.

Mike Sweeney will start a rehab stint for Omaha this weekend and will likely be back for the Royals early next week. Sweeney is reporting that his back is pain-free, but team sources have been very cagy in their language. If anyone's reading this with more media pull than me, get Nick Swartz to explain why the injury has gone from back to hip and now back again, all without a solid diagnosis. (I can explain it in two words - herniated disc.)

Damian Miller will start a short rehab stint in hopes that his back won't get worse with activity, since its not reportedly not getting better. Expect Miller to get more rest once he returns if Brenly can find a way to keep the lead in the division.

Jeff Conine was activated today and went 1 for 4. Ellis Burks is still out with a strained shoulder but is still unlikely to go on the DL. Hank Blalock as a 2B? Ooooh!

Next report tomorrow ... remember the UTK/Netshrine gettogether on August 17th here in Indianapolis. Email me for details.

SmedIndy
08-08-2002, 12:10 AM
You definitely have the glass half full....I see no Lieber, and I see woe, despair, and agony.

But I could be wrong...

SmedIndy
08-08-2002, 12:10 AM
BTW - Did you catch my promo on ESPN 950 for the get together?

Duque
08-08-2002, 01:22 AM
Why the hate for Bagwell?

At least you gave him more print than Bill James did.

padresfan19
08-08-2002, 04:27 AM
Originally posted by cubfan33
Oliver Perez, one of the best young pitchers I've seen this year, was shut down with a sore shoulder.

Ah, but did you see how Perez hurt his shoulder? He didn't hurt it pitching, he hurt it diving headfirst into first base on an infield single. I'll cut him some slack because he is a 20-year old kid, youngest in the majors, and he was busting his ass, but that was just a stupid play. Rookies...:rolleyes:

The injury is nothing major, but when he did it Bruce Bochy and Greg Booker turned pale. Perez is the Padres' future ace. I've seen most of his starts, several in person, and this kid knows how to pitch. He's able to change speeds and spot his pitches - an excellent fastball which he throws 88-93mph, an occasional changeup, and a nasty slider that is similar to Randy Johnson's. He's got a beautiful motion, so I don't think he's much of an injury risk - except when he's running the bases.:D

soxfan121
08-08-2002, 10:29 AM
C'mon Will! Shaune ain't all that.

And there are two sides to every story...

Skip
08-08-2002, 10:32 AM
Originally posted by Duque
Why the hate for Bagwell?

At least you gave him more print than Bill James did. The emailed report contained a link there to Bagwell's wife's website. I think Will was just jealous/horny. :D

KCBOOMER
08-08-2002, 10:51 AM
Originally posted by cubfan33
Mike Sweeney will start a rehab stint for Omaha this weekend and will likely be back for the Royals early next week. Sweeney is reporting that his back is pain-free, but team sources have been very cagy in their language. If anyone's reading this with more media pull than me, get Nick Swartz to explain why the injury has gone from back to hip and now back again, all without a solid diagnosis. (I can explain it in two words - herniated disc.)

The Royals also went from a position that Sweeney would need to spend three weeks in Omaha for rehab to just three days.

SmedIndy
08-08-2002, 10:56 PM
Originally posted by Skip
The emailed report contained a link there to Bagwell's wife's website. I think Will was just jealous/horny. :D

Giddy-yap!