I don't like deadlines

[cubfan33]

Either they can or they can't and either way, I really don't think it matters. Shyam Das is reportedly asking for another delay in his contraction arbitration ruling, beyond the already late date of August 1. On the one hand, he may be hoping that his decision is rendered moot by the collective bargaining process. If so, he's obviously in need of a swift kick to the head to clear up that delusion. On the other hand, he may think that the situation is so confusing that he needs to delve further into the issue. If so, he's not taking on more testimony, more evidence, or ... well, anything, as far as I can tell. As the case crawled forward through one convoluted day of testimony, then a couple days of nothing, then some more testimony, the consensus among those with legal minds was that baseball would be subject to the same rule as any manufacturer - that baseball could close a factory - I mean, a team - but they would have to bargain with the union for the effects of the closing. I listened to the legal minds and figured that if contraction was going to happen (and I'm still dubious, but put nothing past Seligula), then Don and Gene would come up with a way to make the dispersal draft work for players and try to negotiate for the 27 man roster. As it delays and delays, I wonder how important this decision really is to the process and hope that its just a distraction. Like steroids, it came up, burned brightly for a while, then faded quietly away.

Murray Chass and Peter Gammons have been nominated for the Taylor Spinks Award, which is about as good as it gets for baseball writing. Both have their fans and detractors, but both are always worth reading. While both of these come from big newspapers, I wonder where the great writers of the next generation will come from. Will they be beat writers like Teddy Greenstein or T.R. Sullivan, 'Net guys like Rob Neyer or Joe Sheehan, or maybe someone like John Bonnes or Jamey Newberg, who have an opinion and a talent in search of a broader audience? I love baseball and think that there's room in here for all of us, even me.

Ok, I teased it yesterday - now you can check it out and flame me mercilessly. Pitch counts don't matter much - here's why.

Jeez ... as I finished with this, Cliff Floyd was dealt to the Red Sox for two Korean pitchers. I don't know enough about them to comment on any value they may have, but it just doesn't seem right. I guess two pitchers is better than nothing and certainly better than just a straight sale, but how much remains to be seen. I still expect to see Paul Byrd in Seattle sometime tomorrow.

Something's going on in LA. Ken Griffey, Barry Larkin, and Mark Grudzialanek all left the game in early innings. It's not raining, it doesn't look overly hot (88 in LA), so I'm assuming that there is SOME reason ... injuries? Perhaps. Larkin left the earliest and it was his first game back, always a dangerous time. Keep your eye on him and I'll update everyone tomorrow. For the other two, let's hope in Griffey's case that the blowout gave Boone a chance to rest him and for Grudz, well ... he does share a birthday with me, so I won't wish him ill. Kaz Ishii's velocity was tanked and I've already had two emails saying that he's looking terrible. He's 2-6 since the start of June and watched the guy who will beat him for NL ROY go 2 for 2 with 3 walks. (Austin Kearns, as if I had to tell you.)

The Reds are supposed to get Gabe White back tonight, but I cannot find any transaction and the Reds game notes don't list anything about him. Some sources say that Chris Reitsma or John Riedling will re-visit Louisvill when White is activated, but Reitsma is pitching tonight in relief of Ryan Dempster.

Back to the Dodgers, they got good news bad news ... again. Kevin Brown is so far ahead of schedule it's amazing. Greg Rakestraw asked about Brown today and I got a call about him as I was leaving the studio. Brown threw a full simulated game in the bullpen and will throw again on Thursday in what would, I guess, be a simulated side session. If all goes well, Brown will then head to Vegas to check out the shows, play a little Pai Gow, and ... oh yeah ... make no more than two rehab starts before returning to L.A. The bad news is that Darren Dreifort got scoped in L.A. today to diagnose his knee pain. No results available yet, but this setback may push him out of a return this season.

News just in that Ricky Rincon was traded to the A's for Marshall McDougall. Good trade for both parties. I really like McDougall and have since seeing him in college. The A's are loaded and can afford to give up McDougall to shore up their bullpen. Mike Venafro and Mike Magnante just haven't cut it and even the slightest weakness may send someone into third place in the AL West. This race in the Western divisions is what we should be talking about, not any of the rest of the crap. Baseball endures, indeed.

Trial period over. Bruce Kimm has to go. Yes, he's better than Baylor, but that's like comparing being burnt by a cigarette and a blowtorch. Both hurt and should be avoided at all cost, even if one is worse than the other. I keep telling myself that I trust Jim Hendry. I keep telling myself that I trust Jim Hendry. There's no place like home ... there's no place like home.

Ellis Burks was reported to be ready to return to the Cleveland lineup, but he did not start. There's no new news on his shoulder, but I'll be making some calls on it tomorrow. There's always the chance he's being held out with only a day before the deadline.

Forget Scott Rolen. The Cards probably could have made the playoffs without him, thought I'm still not completely counting the Reds out. What the Cards won't be able to do is make it very far, even in a short series, with only Matt Morris and Chuck Finley. The trade of Bud Smith makes it even more imperative that Woody Williams and Garrett Stephenson come back and take some heat off Jason Simontacchi. Williams is scheduled to begin throwing this weekend, which puts his return in mid to late August at best. Stephenson is ready for a rehab assignment, but the Cards are very concerned about how he will be able to play. Details about his surgery are still sketchy, but the best explanation I've heard is that Stephenson had a necrotic mass (dead tissue, perhaps a benign tumor) in the belly of his hamstring. While he's in no long term danger, the injury is odd enough in the general population that it's literally unheard of in baseball. Baseball men don't like things they can't predict, despite baseball being inherently unpredictable. The Cards simply do not match up well with the Braves or any of the NL West teams ... but baseball is inherently unpredictable.

Kenny Williams is trying like the dickens to trade Todd Ritchie. (What is the "dickens" anyway?) Ritchie will not have an MRI, perhaps because then that would have to be provided to another team willing to deal for him. Williams is reportedly offering the ineffective but not badly injured Ritchie for a B level prospect, which is much less than the Josh Fogg and Kip Wells tag Williams himself dropped on Ritchie less than a year ago. I almost hate to see the ChiSox suffer with him for much longer. Almost. :)

Mike Bordick is a bit ahead of schedule and should begin the rehab process on his fractured knee later this week, once it is removed from its brace. While there's no value in not playing, there is some value in using the time a player is out and a team is not in contention to figure things out. Bordick could be a good shortstop for a great hitting team that could carry his bat, but the Orioles are not a great hitting team. Finding a shortstop or simply moving Tony Batista over and accepting some defensive lapse might be an option, but the Orioles are using players with little or no future and no assistance in winning now. Worse, John Stephens came up and got LIT by the Devil Rays.

Brad Radke was reported to look sharp in his last rehab start, but one of my railbirds in Florida said that Radke was grimacing quite a bit throughout his start and that he didn't look "fluid." Radke should be back with the Twins early next week, depending on how the rotation is set up now, and can use the rest of the season as an extended rehab assignment - low pitch counts, extra rest when possible, and a concentration on mechanics.

[cubfan33]

Going the other direction is Nick Neugebauer. I'll finally get a chance to see him this Friday when he makes his first rehab start here in Indy. I missed him last year, so expect a report this Friday when I see "Nook" firsthand. The book on him is horrendous mechanics, though a rushed rise through the minors and choppy coaching can't be much help to a youngster.

The Mariners will be missing Desi Relaford for about a week with an oblique injury. Relaford has been a great bench player and fill-in shortstop. Just like the Orioles can't carry a light hitting shortstop, the Mariners can. Relaford is just the type of guy winning teams have on the bench.

Ask a simple question to someone in sports medicine and you're likely to get a really complex answer filled with big words. I asked UTK friend "Dr. A" about Mariano Rivera's shoulder and the conversation went to cortisone injections in general. I thought it would be interesting to ask him to write a paragraph or two explaining it, so here it is: "The body's natural response to any type of musculoskeletal injury is the inflammatory cycle, a somewhat complex physiological phenomena which, in a nutshell, tells us that a part is damaged and the pain (inflammation) is the signal not to use the part (further use would cause greater pain and possibly more significant damage) therefore telling the injured person to allow the body part to rest and heal. That is nature's natural way. However, in sports, we often feel time pressures to return to activity, therefore the necessity to intervene in the body's method of natural healing by the use of anti-inflammatory substances. Some anti-inflammatories are relatively mild and are known as NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory substances). The simplest of these is aspirin. There are however much stronger steroidal substances which have been used to lessen pain and hasten an athlete's return to activity. These are normally injected into the effected body part, be it muscle, ligament, tendon, etc.The most common injectable steroids(corticosteroids, not anabolic steroids) are cortisone and prednisone. Administration of the drugs is usually proceeded by an injection of xylocaine (numbing agent). Although medical research has reported some success, there are also some downsides to the use of corticosteroids. especially their injection into tendons and ligaments. Repeated injections may cause brittleness of these body structures and lead to their eventual rupture or failure, a condition far worse than the original temporary pain and temporary disability from the inflammation following the original injury. So, yes, there are short-cut ways to return an athlete to competition, but there may be a severe long-term price to their repeated usage.When you see an athlete that tends to suffer an inordinate number of musculotendinous or ligamentous injuries, the true cause may be the manner in which an earlier injury was treated. Corticosteroids are potentially wonderous drugs, but like many other substances, that which can be used, can also be abused."


So many big words .... I think I can pronounce all of them, so I feel good about myself. I'll talk to you, in small words as usual, tomorrow.

[chickgandil]

Will,

1. If you mean why didn't Kimm pull an obviously tired Prior after 108 pitches, pinch hit for him, and bring in any reliever not named Fassero, then yes, I agree he's not much better than Baylor (esp. if he can't flash Patterson a steal sign every now and then).

2. Can you remind me what the difference is between an anabolic steriod and a corticosteroid?

3. Is there a good site that illustrates the anatomy of the shoulder and arm? Looked in books this weekend and couldn't find the labrum (a consistent problem for me for similarly-named parts of the body ;) ).

Love the column. Have worn the shirt to two MLB ballparks now.

Thanks.

[cubfan33]

Kimm's just generally bad. As in, not what that team needs on most levels. Im sure there's worse (Rothschild comes to mind) but they should be able to do better.

On anabolic vs. corticosteroid, let me do some research so I can accurately explain it. I'm really bad with chemistry and want to be right.

Labrum ... good link is http://www.physsportsmed.com/issues/1999/06_99/richards.htm

[Allard]

Originally posted by cubfan33


Ok, I teased it yesterday - now you can check it out and flame me mercilessly. Pitch counts don't matter much - here's why.


Great, now you go and give He Who Cannot Be Named more gas to throw on the fire.

Gammons vs Murray Chass? I have my problems with Gammons, but Chass is a complete idiot. I would love to corner Chass and ask him some questions about any team other than the Yankees and see if he had even heard of them. At least Gammons is aware that there are 30 teams in the league.

Paul Byrd to Seattle? Anybody who saw him pitch Monday on ESPN knows that he is the real deal. His fastball was topping out in the low 90s. To think I had always accused him of being a right handed Jamie Moyer. Neifi Perez was pulled from last nights game, and Tony Pena said there was no reason in his post game interview. Could Perez be packaged and shipped off with Byrd? After Will's words of praise for Desi Relaford, I guess Seattle doesn't need him. ;) I am more and more afraid of a Byrd deal, because I keep getting the feeling that Allard Baird is going to trade for another Roberto Hernandez or Niefi Perez. The team says it will only trade him for a top 2B prospect.

Edit:

Just saw this quote. Thought it went nicely with the rest of the post.

Allard Baird in today's KC Star: "You know me," Baird said. "I don't believe in keeping a guy and getting a draft pick when you can get something of substance in return."

God forbid you get stuck with those worthless draft picks.

[gyb13]

Will....interesting (though brief) article. have you been trying to develop any metric based on "age, pitch type, pitcher role, and mechanical efficiency" ?

[KCBOOMER]

Originally posted by Allard
Gammons vs Murray Chass? I have my problems with Gammons, but Chass is a complete idiot.

Paul Byrd to Seattle? Anybody who saw him pitch Monday on ESPN knows that he is the real deal.
Edit:

Just saw this quote. Thought it went nicely with the rest of the post.

Allard Baird in today's KC Star: "You know me," Baird said. "I don't believe in keeping a guy and getting a draft pick when you can get something of substance in return."

God forbid you get stuck with those worthless draft picks.

I have no problem with Gammons being selected.

Byrd has pitched four straight complete games, leads the majors with five complete games, and is a quick workman. His last three starts, all complete games, averaged less than two hours a piece. The KC fans have really taken to this guy and it would be a major p.r. disaster to trade him without getting a stud back.

Aren't all draft picks worthless in Baird's hands?

[Sadaharu Oh]

I do think that pitch counts matter, but not in the way that the TSN writer used them. In fact, that's the first time that I've seen them used so specifically, in seeming isolation.

[tortured angel]

Originally posted by Sadaharu Oh
I do think that pitch counts matter, but not in the way that the TSN writer used them. In fact, that's the first time that I've seen them used so specifically, in seeming isolation.



Simply put, the more pitches you throw, the sooner you get to the one that bites you.

[poorme]

I think we've already beat this issue up pretty good in another thread. I have yet to see a good analysis on it. My secret hope is to find irrefutable evidence that pitch counts do not matter at all so we can get rid of a few pitching changes. I'm not holding my breath, though.

[spitball]

I'm with Boomer . Trading Byrd would be a major P.R. snafu.
Yes , I know he's been hurt alot , but I think he's over that stuff.
He has great mechanics and a killer attitude.

[Sadaharu Oh]

Originally posted by tortured angel
Simply put, the more pitches you throw, the sooner you get to the one that bites you.

I agree, though I think that the article that Will posted showed that the simple interepretation isn't terribly adequate. The other factors need to be taken into consideration, and most do that and focus more upon those who are rode consistently versus those with the odd high-pitch blip.

Will mentioned a few measureable factors (age, IPs in the minors) to take into account. One that one can't measure is mechanics. Skilled people can spot bad mechanics, while unskilled people (like myself) might look at a Kim or Nomo and wince, thinking something is mechanically off when it really isn't. So I ask those with experience.....

What is a 2-4 point list of "warning signs" that tip off bad mechanics? How can I tell those with bad mechanics apart from those that just look odd or unusual?

[cubfan33]

Trying to simplify mechanics to bulletpoints is tough ... I'll try:

1. Balance
2. Effort
3. Consistent release point
4. follow through

With 1 - watch for a pitcher that seemingly is self-contained. He's not wildly going all over the place, leaning over, looking like he's fallling. Nomo is a good example - he twists, gathers himself, then explodes. If his balance was off even a bit, he'd have a hard time with the twist.

2. Is he throwing smooth and easy? Mark Prior throws 95 and it looks like he's throwing BP. A lot of guys, Ben Weber comes to mind, look like their trying to get that one last rep on the bench to get it up in the 90s.

3. Pretty simple.

4. Again, its balance. If the delivery was solid, he should end up forward, on both feet, usually square, but often tilted slightly to either side.

Watch guys with good mechanics - Schilling, Clemens, Prior, Moyer, Maddux, Glavine - and then compare them to someone like Percival, Dempster, Hawkins, or anyone in Milwaukee. You'll spot things quickly and be able to make good educated guesses about who's good and who's not. This isn't foolproof. Trevor Hoffman looks like he's all over the place, but is very on point. Nomo and Sasaki are very good mechanically. Kevin Brown isn't sound, but looks very smooth.

If you REALLY want to learn this stuff and can devote a month to the study, go to Dr. Mike Marshall's web site. Mike is the 1974 Cy Young winner and is a doctor of biomechanics (Mich St). He's now probably the top pitching consultant there is and his client list is SICK. He has a free book online that is stunning, but very very very very very technical.

[cubfan33]

Yes, saying pitch counts don't matter is a bit much, but its closer to the truth than not.

Pitch count, on its own, has almost no validity. Using pitch count to predict injury has an error of +/- 20%. You'd really have about as much luck flipping a coin.

Age is a better predictor.
Age and role is even better.
Age and role and pitch types is even better still.
Age and role and pitch types and pitch count ABOVE NORMAL FOR THAT PLAYER is even better still again.

Add in mechanical efficiency, handedness, body type, and injury history to a formula that includes the MLB averages for injuries and you have a handle on what I've been working on for the last three months ... but you'll need a couple other things first.

[cubfan33]

An example may be even better.

Randy Johnson throwing 130 pitches doesnt really worry anyone. He's done it, returned without ill effect, and done it again. Yes, keeping his pitch count lower will reduce his fatigue over the course of a season, but that's really about it.

Mark Prior throws 120 pitches and everyone freaks. They shouldn't. He's shown the ability to throw this pretty regularly in the college ranks and he's demonstrated that he can come back without ill effect. I'd rather see him not test it too much at this age, but he appears to be of the type that can handle more "abuse."

Kerry Wood throws 110 pitches and someone should be fired. Kerry has shown over and over that if he throws more than ... um, I cant use the exact number ... a number in the mid-80s then his performance suffers in his next outing and if continually tested, he will lose velocity and develop pain. A good coach would work on his pitch efficiency and plan for him to go five or six innings an outing at most. When he's going to the mound, you'd better have a rested pen and a long man ready.

Jarrod Washburn throws 100 pitches and ... well, we're not sure yet. He's never thrown 100 consistently in outings before this year, so he doesn't have an established level. It appears that the mid 100s may be his upper limit (check his pitch counts on ESPN's stats) to return effective and with full velocity.