Pick (from) Six

[NetShrine]

Note: This Is A "Required Thread" For Those Participating In The NetShrine Discusion Forum Contest.

Appears we're down to six teams in each league as far as having a shot at the post-season:

AL - Yanks, Bosox, Indians, Twins, M's, and A's.
NL - Braves, Phils, Cubs, Astros, D-backs, and Dodgers.

Which two in each circuit will not make the dance - and why?

BTW, this is thread #500 for the "new" forum - if you're into milestones.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Twins and A's are out in the AL race. Twins because they are starting to falter and they will not handle the pressure. Plus the Indians will improve their starting pitching before 7/31. The A's because they simply will not catch either the Yanks or the RedSox in the Wild Card. The RedSox are weathering the storm of their injuries right now. Once they get healthy, look out.

The Phils and Dodgers will not make it in the NL. Too much turmoil in the Philly with Bowa and not enough pitching. I don't see them upgrading either. The Dodgers are making their run too early and will be an also ran by the end of August.

[NetShrine]

I agree that it will be hardest for the A's - playing catch-up. So, I kick them out. Twins have pitching and play D. Their recent slump is more a matter of the fact they were playing the M's. The Indians need a lot of pitching. Not sure if they can get it. Rocker deal hurt them too. I'm kicking out the Tribe in the AL.

In the NL, I too kick out the Phils - Bowa factor and pitching being the cause. Now, this is the hardest part for me - - choosing between the Astros and the Dodgers as to who to drop. Dodgers are something like the Red Sox - they're doing it and you have no idea how. By all rights, neither of those teams should be where they are - and deserve tons of credit for being where they are, if you know what I mean. Astros, well, I see their SP and that ballpark and I wonder how the hell can they make it? Guess I give the nod to the 'Stros to bow out (mostly due to the park) and go with LA to sneak into the dance.

[Duque]

I don't see the Tribe making it - Burks may not be back for a while, Diaz has cooled off, and Lofton hasn't been good all year. Finley's injured, and even when healthy, he's been inconsistent this season, whether Colon will ever get it together remains a question, and Dave Burba is Dave Burba. CC Sabathia is the best pitcher on the staff (which is saying something), but he's likely to tire out before the year is through (he's never pitched over 150 innings before). Then there's the bullpen - having already lost their best reliever (Karsay) in that silly trade with the Braves, they lose their 3rd-best reliever (Shuey) to injury. He might not be back this year. It wouldn't be a terrible idea to move Steve Woodard or Jake Westbrook into the rotation on a permanent basis - but that'd just weaken the already weak pen. Of course, the Twins could really use a Greg Vaughn type to boost their production. I'm still not sold on the Red Sox making it either - even if they do get Pedro back, will he be at full strength? And it's hard to see how Nomar will have any power coming back from that wrist injury. Basically, they've been extremely lucky in getting good pitching from guys like Arrojo, Wakefield, and Cone (though he's a beneficiary of good run support more than anything) - but past history would indicate those guys are going to revert to their very hittable forms sometime soon.

As for the NL, I'd kick out the Phils - their offense hasn't been great all season, and their pitching and bullpen are questionable. I like the 'Stros, and I really like their young pitchers. If they were to add a Woody Williams or a Glendon Rusch they could potentially unseat the Cubs, whose offense is still shaky. Of course, that would change if McGriff changes his mind again.

[NetShrine]

Agreed Duque - if the Astros get an experienced pitcher - a good one that can win 9 games over the remainder of the season, that would be a huge thing - and perhaps enough to get them to the dance.

[NetShrine]

Giants have won 5 in a row - and now made a big trade. Should we include them in the mix?

[satchel]

I'm truly awful at predictions, but I'd say that the Cubs have strengthened themselves considerably with recent moves. I think the Giants are still in it and could make it interesting all the way down to the wire in the West.

In the AL, I've been saying for a while that the wild card would not come from the East, but with the way the Twins and Red Sox have been playing lately I'm thinking of changing my tune and agreeing with Buzz. But I'm awful at predictions.

Oh, and: hi, Duque!

[Duque]

Originally posted by Duque
And it's hard to see how Nomar will have any power coming back from that wrist injury.


Yes, I did say this :rolleyes:

The Giants could definitely get back into it - they've made a series of pretty smart moves over the last week. Galarraga adds some right-handed presence to that lineup, Vander Wal gives them a pretty solid lefty off the bench or to play occassionally in the field, and Schmidt gives them another solid starter. Basically, Livan Hernandez has not performed anywhere near expectations - if he steps it up, they could be dangerous. Of course there's that Barry Bonds dude.

Any thoughts about the Cardinals? They are getting JD Drew back sometime soon.

Oh, and hi to you, Satchel. This is a great site - even if some of the forumers do make silly comments about Nomar Garciaparra's power.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by Duque
Any thoughts about the Cardinals? They are getting JD Drew back sometime soon.

Oh, and hi to you, Satchel. This is a great site -

Cards still have a ways to go, IMHO. Duque - thanks for the comment on the site. Now, go tell all your friends! :loud: :D

[BuzzBuzzard]

I have to now put the Twins back in and take the Indians out. Twins have made two moves to bulster their pitching in Reed and Jones. Pitching wins championships. The Indians have sat idle with three hours to go.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
I have to now put the Twins back in and take the Indians out. Twins have made two moves to bulster their pitching in Reed and Jones. Pitching wins championships. The Indians have sat idle with three hours to go.

I agree on the Twins - they really have a nice staff now.

[NetShrine]

Don't look now, but the Angels (!) are in the hunt for the AL Wildcard too.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Just when I think I can make sense of this, the landscape changes dramatically. Are the A's peaking too soon?

With the M's up by 17 games, they are still pretty much a lock to win the West, but the A's have gotten so hot, they would be winning the Central by 2 1/2 games and trail in the East by only 1 game. What a reversal of fortune after a slow start.

[mainsr]

Hey, it's good to be back.

I took a pretty much numerical look at this. AL only; NL to follow.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE WON-LOST RECORD OF REMAINING SCHEDULE
Twins .470
Yankees .473
Red Sox .483
A's .490
Indians .521

Here's what I'd conclude from that:
1. Yankees have the Red Sox beat, unless the Sox pull a 1978 in reverse in the teams' 7 remaining head-to-head matchups.
2. I exclude the Mariners, given their lead.
3. I'm going to go against the numbers in the AL Central. The difference in opponents' W-L should mean at least a couple games in the Twins' favor, which would put them in first. However, the two teams have 9 head-to-head games, and the Tribe has had the Twins' number this year (7-3).
4. I figure the NL Central runner-up is the odd man out for the wild card. That means it's between Boston and Oakland. The A's already have a two-game lead, and the schedule differential is pretty meaningless. Oakland has only four games against a team whose playoff position is at stake (Cleveland), while Boston has to face the Tribe 6 times and Yankees 7. So I see it as:
East - New York
Central - Cleveland
West - Seattle
Wild Card - Oakland

[NetShrine]

Another thing to factor - the DLs. Who is on, who is coming back, and who is not.

BTW, Rob, nice to see ya! :cool:

[mainsr]

The NL is much tighter. Before last night's games:
Cubs 66-50
Astros 66-51
Snakes 66-51
Giants 66-52
Phils 65-52
Dodgers 65-53
Braves 64-53
Cards 62-55
Four and half games between No. 1 and No. 8

WEIGHTED AVERAGE WON-LOST RECORD OF REMAINING SCHEDULE
Cardinals .478
Phillies .484
Snakes .488
Astros .490
Cubs .492
Braves, Dodgers, Giants .504

What it means:
1. About a one-game advantage for the Phillies. Still, I can't get comfortable with the idea of Phillies ahead of the Braves, against whom they're 5-7 so far and still ahve to play seven more times. I've got to go with Atlanta.
2. I could see both the Astros and the Cardinals passing the Cubs.
3. The Diamondbacks' schedule, which includes 6 against the Brewers and Pirates (LA and SF don't play either of them at all) will be a big help, I think.
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Astros
NL West: Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Cardinals

[NetShrine]

Cards came out of nowhere, IMHO, to get within 4 games of the wildcard.

The NL really is wide open now - - I hope it stays that way for the next 6 weeks.

[robertnyc]

The A's will BEAT the Yankees in ROUND 1 of the Playoffs. The Yankees FEAR the A's. John Sterling said so, so it MUST be true. The Twinkies will never make it. They could have pulled the trigger for help with the Orioles and didn't. THAT decision will haunt them.

The Phillies have a dumb-ass GM with a personality/ego problem. He alone will have to take responsibility when the Phils swoon down the stretch. Rolen is a future MVP for someone...NOT the Phillies. Like Minnesota, Philadelphia could have pulled the trigger on a deal with Baltimore sending Rolen to the Orioles for Conine and Doughboy Ponson, who in the NL could be another Schilling.

Bene Fortuna Cubs! My sentimental pick to win it all!

[NetShrine]

Losing Guzman and now Radke has killed the Twins.

Losing Wood doesn't help the Cubs.

Like I said before - the DL will factor in on who wins or loses.

[mainsr]

Originally posted by robertnyc
The A's will BEAT the Yankees in ROUND 1 of the Playoffs.

Rolen is a future MVP for someone...NOT the Phillies.

A's over Yankees...Your lips to God's ears. Unfortunately, it will probably guarantee that the Yankees will get Giambi over the winter.

As for Rolen, I've always liked him, but there's something wrong there. He is on his way toward posting a career low in SLG, and at his current pace, he's touch-and-go to hit 20 HRs. That, plus the fact that he missed 84 games with injuries in '99 and '00, makes him quite a risk. Among NL 3B, here's how he rates:
OPS - Sixth, behind Jones, Pujols, Nevin, Ramirez, and Boone
RC - Fourth, behind Jones, Pujols, and Nevin, just a whisker ahead of Ramirez
OW% - Fifth, behind Jones, Nevin, Pujols, and Ramirez.
Future MVPs hit better than Aramis Ramirez.

[NetShrine]

Hey - Aramis can play.

[mainsr]

Yeah, I know, but my point is that he's not the sort of guy who should be putting up numbers better than a future MVP. Besides, playing in Pittsburgh, Ramirez will never get the recognition he deserves, except by Roto-heads.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by mainsr
Besides, playing in Pittsburgh, Ramirez will never get the recognition he deserves, except by Roto-heads.

Or members of the old HOF Vets Committee. :D

[NetShrine]

Gotta add the Cards to the mix. When Miguel Cairo starts hitting 3 run PH Jimmy Jacks, something magic is happening.


"It was a night of firsts for the Cardinals' Miguel Cairo.

Miguel Cairo connects with Dennis Cook's 1-2 pitch for a three-run pinch homer that gave St. Louis its 10th win in a row.

Cairo hit his first career pinch-hit home run -- a three-run shot -- and earned his first curtain call Saturday night in leading St. Louis to its 10th consecutive victory, a 6-3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies."

[Throwback]

He he! Told you!

[Duque]

I think Houston's now got a pretty good chance to win the Central. Heck, they call up 5'10", 145 lbs. Carlos Hernandez from Double-A and tell him he's going to start just a few hours before the game. So he pitches 6 innings of 2-hit ball. Add him to Oswalt, Astacio, Reynolds, possibly Tim Redding, plus their killer bullpen and that lineup, and they could be very dangerous.

Interesting sidenote - how weird is it that Jose Lima and Dave Mlicki, who both stunk it up at Enron and Comerica earlier this year, respectively, have, after being traded, gone back to being solid starters?

[NetShrine]

Jose Lima and Dave Mlicki - -

Lima, is a nut, and, he scares me. I don't want him in my clubhouse - - even if he was a 20-game winner.

I've met, and spoken to Mlicki's mother's sister many times. Very nice lady. As such, I've always had a soft spot for Dave and Doug (his brother)- and hope for them to do well.