Odds On Fassero Saving 30 This Year

[NetShrine]

He's 38 years old, and he allowed 203 baserunners in 130 IP last year. I don't like his chances............not many closers show at age 38........right?

[ChrisCary]

Forget him.

I've had two opportunities to pick him up and said no both times.

[NetShrine]

Hear this?

Tick, tick, tick, tick.........

it's the Fassero bomb just waiting to blow!

[BuzzBuzzard]

You'd have said the same of Franco two years ago. How many saves would he put up at post-40 years old if he were the closer?

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
You'd have said the same of Franco two years ago. How many saves would he put up at post-40 years old if he were the closer?

Last time Franco saved more than 19 games in a season he was just 39 (was 38 most of the year). But, he had been a closer for a dozen years before that and hadn't had the same bad stretch as Fassero.

BTW, Fassero got banged up today..........

[BuzzBuzzard]

You beat me to it. Beginning this thread yesterday morning was nothing short of prophetic. I am beginning to see you in a new light, Net.

I am sure you missed it, but during last night's Mets telecast, there was a great dialogue between Howie Rose and Fran Healy about a relief pitcher's ability to be credited with a win and a blown save at the same time. I guess the win needs to go to someone, statistically speaking, but there is an inequity there. Any suggestions on how to deal with that?

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
I am sure you missed it, but during last night's Mets telecast, there was a great dialogue between Howie Rose and Fran Healy about a relief pitcher's ability to be credited with a win and a blown save at the same time. I guess the win needs to go to someone, statistically speaking, but there is an inequity there. Any suggestions on how to deal with that?


Always been one of my peeves - - getting a BS and a Win! Pitchers have been getting vulture (no pun Buzz) wins for a long time now.........just stands out more with the BS (great stat abbrev.) next to their name...........

...........but, wins has always been a crazy stat as a whole. You see it all the time, pitcher with 200 Ks, and an ERA near 3 - - with hardly no wins (like Mussina last year) and then some guy wins 20 becuase his team scores a lot when he pitches.............

.........BTW, I cast a shadow, but I don't stand up to the light so good........be careful what light you look at me in! :rolleyes:

[NetShrine]

Just off today's wire:

Fassero worked a perfect ninth for his seventh save.

Go figure.........

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by NetShrine



Always been one of my peeves - - getting a BS and a Win! Pitchers have been getting vulture (no pun Buzz) wins for a long time now.........just stands out more with the BS (great stat abbrev.) next to their name...........



You also have the situations where a pitcher gets a hold and a loss in the same game. That's when he leaves with the lead intact, but he got the loss because one of the runners he put on base scores with a subsequent pitcher on the mound.

[NetShrine]

2nd pet peeve - - that we don't factor someway the impact of runners left on that score into ERA. I'm sure STATS Inc does it - - but it's not a big public stat.

[mainsr]

Getting back to Fassero - Yes, he could get a bunch of saves, because saves are a stat that are left to the manager's discretion. The Baseball Prospectus guys have written some great stuff on this. To paraphrase, managers have changed the way they handle their pitching staffs because of the saves stat. As a consequence, getting designated a "closer" is as much a matter of luck (Fassero) as skill (Rivera, Hoffman).

My question is this: What early-season stats are NOT flukes? Are Jose Hernandez and Mark Grud-whatever-it-is legitimate middle infield sluggers? I'm inclined to dismiss early-season slumps, but how about out-of-context hot starts? Has something changed?

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by mainsr
My question is this: What early-season stats are NOT flukes? Are Jose Hernandez and Mark Grud-whatever-it-is legitimate middle infield sluggers? I'm inclined to dismiss early-season slumps, but how about out-of-context hot starts? Has something changed?

Thanks Rob - - we just got "Buzz" off this topic.

Hot starts are either:
1. A slump waiting to happen, or
2. The first leg of a monster season.
Forecasting which one is the key to many champion roto-seasons.

For younger players, with some experience, it's usually the latter. Older players, most of the time, the former.

[mainsr]

Man, I wish I had the time to put that one to the test. I believe that hot starts for old guys are probably flukes. I think they are for young guys, though, too. We'll see.

Fassero took the L today.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by mainsr
Fassero took the L today.

Won't be the last time - if they keep running him out there.