Are A-Rod, Nomar, and Derek STILL the Big 3 at Shortstop? [Archive]

tenkevcardinal

06-15-2002, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by Sheila
ah, Alex, Nomar, Derek...what choices...<sigh>

A-Rod is overrated. He's not that much better than Nomar if at all. Nomar's career average is .332 to A-Rod's .311 and he drives in and scores almost as many runs. His OBP is .380 to .378. If he hadn't gotten hurt he'd probably be further ahead of A-Rod.

That is ridiculuous. You use AVG to say that Nomar is better than ARod. AVG is the most overrated and useless stat in baseball. I agree that they have been close over their careers, but A-rod's SLG% is higher over the career and ecspecially if you look at the past three years. He is definitely better than him this year, and Nomar is at full health. I would rank them 1. ARod 2. Nomar 3. Jeter 4. Tejada 5. Aurilla , but even if Nomar returns to full form he isn't better than AROD at his best.

Sheila

06-15-2002, 07:27 PM

oooooh...settle down Tiger

Notice I said that "If Nomar hadn't gotten hurt"

Since Nomar came into the league, A-Rod has never been any better, other than 2001 and being able to stay healthy.

1997:
Nomar hits .306 with 30 homers, 122 runs, 98 RBI as a leadoff hitter, 30-game hitting streak. A-Rod hit .300 with 23 homers. And YES, Nomar outslugged him.

1998: Nomar .323, 35 homers, 111 runs, 122 RBI
A-Rod .310 42 homers, 123, 124 RBI

1999:
Nomar hit .357 27 103 104
A-Rod .285 42 110 111

2000:
Nomar .372 21 104 96
A-Rod .316 41 134 132

Nomar would have had more runs and RBI if he had just stayed healthy, he missed abou 20 a year. Oh Yes, Nomar outslugged A-Rod every year except 2000, when A-Rod beat him by a measelly 606 to 599.

So Nomah has basically hit for much higher average, been on base more and had better sluging percentages just about every year than A-Rod, except for last year when he got hurt. So unless you think more home runs is more important than everything else, please explain yourself

Please explain why, if Nomar

calexpat

06-15-2002, 07:44 PM

Sheila, you're right, through 2000 Nomar's stats are right there with A-Rod's, even a little ahead, at the plate. But then you've got to take into account that Nomar played in a hitter's park, and A-Rod played in a pitcher's park, so you give the edge to A-Rod.

Since 2000, A-Rod has pulled ahead a bit. His defensive stats are also somewhat better. So A-Rod's clearly better, but you're right, it's not head and shoulders.

calexpat

06-15-2002, 07:51 PM

Another reason A-Rod gets more credit is that he's 2 years younger. almost to the day. That means he's likely to stay good for longer and have a better career, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's any better now.

LeGrandOrange

06-15-2002, 08:27 PM

Since we can count NL SS's in this, I'd assume, I'd say Rollins is better then Tejada (my opinion, there is no legitimate statistical basis behind it), but behind the big 3 in the order you listed them in the post, and then from there you get "everyone else". Vizquel is excluded from the equation since he's older and since I still think his bat is corked...no way he can already have a career high in homers not even halfway through his 14th big league season "naturally".
Back to the real topic, A-Rod is still the front runner because he is developing into the best complete players, let alone shortstops, major league baseball has seen in a LONG time. Nomah! is as comparable a hitter as A-Rod but isn't the greatest defensively, Jeter is fine defensively and not as great of a hitter as either, but boy does he step it up in October.
I'm not sure when someone new is going to break into the Trinity, but I know that, as long as Nomah! is healthy, it is going to be those three, has been for awhile, might be for a while longer.

soxfan121

06-15-2002, 08:33 PM

calexpat wrote:
"...Nomar played in a hitter's park, and A-Rod played in a pitcher's park, so you give the edge to A-Rod.

Since 2000, A-Rod has pulled ahead a bit. His defensive stats are also somewhat better. So A-Rod's clearly better, but you're right, it's not head and shoulders. "
--------------

calexpat,

There is a historical perception that Fenway is a hitters park. It USED to be a hitters park; since the addition of the 600 Club, the park has played more like a neutral effect park than anything else.

I agree that since 2000 the perception is that Arod has "pulled ahead a bit" and that the distance is not that great between the two. First off, Arod is the highest-paid player and has had an undue amount of attention for that. Second, he moved to the New Launching Pad, the Ballpark at Arlington, which is most decidedly a hitters park. Third, Nomar suffered a career-threatening injury, first playing through it and then missing an entire season.

This season, they are finally back to equal footing and are posting "typical" numbers for each of them.
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_sortable_player_stats.jsp?section1=null&statSet1=null&statType=1&sortByStat=AB&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2002&baseballScope=AL&prevPage1=1&readBoxes=true&sitSplit=&venueID=&subScope=pos&teamPosCode=6&box5=XXXX121347tex6&box6=XXXX114596bos6&compare.x=24&compare.y=2

I personally think this to be THE BEST "who's better?" argument among all players. It really reveals "who you are as a baseball fan" so to speak.

Do you dig the long ball (and the ancillary "big" numbers)? Arod's your man. Big HR, RBI, and OPS numbers to light up a scoreboard. Baseball embraces the Home Run God because home runs sell tickets. Everybody loves the long ball - and everyone loves Arod.

Do you love to watch a pure hitter ply his craft? Nomah's your man. Ted Williams predicts he will someday hit .400. Ty Cobb would call him the best in the game. Nomar was the first righthanded hitter since Joe D to win back-to-back batting titles.

The Nomar/Arod debate is not and cannot be solely about statistics. It's a style debate, an aesthetic debate. And it's what makes the game wonderful.

And Jeter doesn;t belong in the discussion with these two and neither does Tejada. Both are stars and very good players for what they bring to the table, but Arod and Nomar are in a different area code in ability and production.

hmrsf

06-15-2002, 08:42 PM

There is a historical perception that Fenway is a hitters park. It USED to be a hitters park; since the addition of the 600 Club, the park has played more like a neutral effect park than anything else. -----sf121

:jsmile: thank you for stating what I have stated 100x before. Structually Fenway, is near neutral, since the construction of the 600 club.

The damn wall giveth and taketh away. I have seen crushed singles off the wall, that would have been hr in other parks.

People can not shake the Fenway is a hitters park.

calexpat

06-15-2002, 09:10 PM

Gotcha on the Fenway thing. Looking at Park Factors 1999-2001, Fenway was just barely a hitter's park in 2000 and 2001, a pretty strong hitters' park in 1999. When did they add the 600 club?

I don't think it's possible to debate who's better without sticking to statistics. We're all allowed to like whoever we like, but you're not going to convince anyone who doesn't already agree with you without resorting to evidence. There are a lot of different ways to look at the evidence, but if you abandon it altogether you're no longer debating who's better IMO.

Confining ourselves to numbers, it's hard to argue Nomar's better, if you focus on the past three, two, or one years. Nomar has BA over A-Rod, but nothing else--not OBP, not SLG, not SBs, not a single defensive stat. They're fairly close, but there's no real question who put up better numbers from 2000-2002, or in 2002, for that matter.

hmrsf

06-15-2002, 09:26 PM

Hitters park in '99? You sure about that.

Craig S.

06-15-2002, 09:40 PM

It's true that Nomar's numbers, with the likely exception of homers, would be closer to ARod if he had stayed healthy. However, he has not, and this has to be taken into account. Saying that he would have kept up his pace, or that of ARod, is nothing but pure conjecture. He did not play those games, so how can we know what he would have done?

There are numerous players in baseball and other sports who would have had more impressive careers if they'd stayed healthy. The fact that they didn't has to be taken into consideration when rating them against others. I would take ARod over Nomar every time, not just because of production but because he stays healthy.

calexpat

06-15-2002, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by hmrsf
Hitters park in '99? You sure about that.

In terms of runs, OBP, hits, extra base hits, and batting average, yes. Not in terms of HRs or SLG. Check it out at http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/fontaine/parkfactors/pf1999.htm

Pilgrim

06-15-2002, 09:58 PM

I give A-Rod the nod for the years he spent in a pitchers park, the fact that he's two years younger and has been more reliable in terms of taking the field. I like Nomar, and think he's better than Jeter (who I am a HUGE fan of). Tejada seemed primed to make it a "Big 4" but, at this point (only 26), he hasn't turned the corner to make him a truly elite hitter...he's still behind Jeter in Avg., OBP and only .006 ahead in slugging. Aurilia is a very distant fifth at best....he's only put up 2 "very good" seasons and one outstanding one, and is 30.

I think in two years we'll be having the same debate about a Big 3 in third baseman -- Glaus, Chavez and maybe one of the current rookies (or Adrian Beltre, if he ever moves up to the next level).

hmrsf

06-15-2002, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by calexpat

In terms of runs, OBP, hits, extra base hits, and batting average, yes. Not in terms of HRs or SLG. Check it out at http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/fontaine/parkfactors/pf1999.htm

Fogive me but it is all numbers to me. Can you explain the table?

calexpat

06-15-2002, 10:20 PM

The numbers are basically home totals divided by road totals for each stat. A park factor of 1.000 means the stadium is neutral; a park factor of more than 1.000 means it's a hitters' park, and a PF of less than 1.000 means it's a pitchers' park. The page I linked breaks it down by individual stats, so you have a PF for average, for OBP, for hits, etc. Some other measures of park factors boil it down to one number.

Of course, you're going to get small fluctuations season to season. Overall, you're right that Fenway is only a very slight hitters' park. I hadn't realized that.

hmrsf

06-15-2002, 10:32 PM

Thanks for explaining. Someone once said it was based on the 1.000 system. The only true nod goes to doubles.

The 600 club was added 88-89.

I do not have the stats but you should see a big change. I only know what I see and have read but Fenway is far from a hitters park and has to be close to neutral.

If you see enough games your gut will tell you, numbers only confirm it.

calexpat

06-15-2002, 10:38 PM

Right. Outside of pre-humidifier Colorado, no park is truly extreme one way or another. A park factor of 1.06 will make you one of stronger hitters' parks in the bigs, but it's still a pretty small difference. And most years Fenway isn't even that high. So judging by the numbers, your gut is right to a high degree of accuracy.

hmrsf

06-15-2002, 10:42 PM

Thanks for the table. I have been saying for years this but now I have the numbers!!!

:D

SmedIndy

06-15-2002, 11:34 PM

Making a hard veer back onto topic....

If I had to choose one, I'd choose A-Rod.

However, there will be seasons when Nomar is healthy, and has a better year. But A-Rod will be better, longer...

b-ball-lunachik

06-16-2002, 12:09 AM

To me, there's A-Rod first....then jeter/nomar or nomar/jeter if you like ;) a step down...I answered something similarly recently on another board on who was better Jeter or Nomar so I'll just copy/paste my post from there -- it will be easier!! :D you can tell that I was refuting someone who had voted Nomar as better...

As for who is a better player so far in their careers, I give the nod to Jeter so far...here's why:

-- Offensively: Nomar is a different kind of hitter and definitely has more power (although that's the one thing that hasn't really come back fully yet, he'll have it back soon enough)...I think he is better offensively and his two batting titles tell a lot, however you can't say he's been clearly better to this point -- because you're comparing BA and OPS, etc when Jeter has 1,200 more at-bats than Nomar...even with the 1,200 less at-bats, Nomar's OBP of .381 is lower than Jeter's at .392...Jeter has bat lead off and second, while Nomar has batted more in the three and four hole, so to Jeter, his OBP is even more important..even with all of those extra at-bats, Jeter's BA is only 12 points lower (.320 to .332).

As for baserunning, Jeter has more baserunning skills and probably a bit more speed -- he uses it -- combine his instincts on the basepaths which are among the best in the leage, and that boosts Jeter's offensive value that much more...

-- Defensively: I'll give you that Nomar has more range but Jeter has played through injuries (unlike Nomar ) and his range has been much worse since 1997...their Fielding Percentages are negligible...but I did see Nomar make a few errors in one playoff game in particular and a few costly ones in that same series...Jeter doesn't make as many costly errors -- more on that later..again, you're comparing stats on percentages but Jeter's played in more than 300 more games -- that's 1/3 more games than Nomar in which to make more errors and for his range to decrease playing with injuries...

-- Intangibles: Instincts/Leadership/Clutch: Jeter has some of the best instincts in baseball, not just baserunning as I mentioned earlier, but an uncanny ability to be in the right place at the right time (Oakland playoff game -- ask Jeremy Giambi) ...I don't see Nomar as much as an impact player as of yet but I've obviously watched a great deal more of Jeter than I have of Nomar...

I think they are both good leaders...they both lead by example, are well liked by their peers, teammates, management and fans...Nomar's been expected to be the leader along with Pedro since he came up and he's done well...but Jeter has has to lead on a bigger stage for longer, with a greater spotlight and has shined...he's also done it while NOT being the team's "main star" -- there have been a lot of big name, big money players on the Yankees during Jeter's tenure, yet he stands right up among the biggest...

Nomar has performed well in the postseason (other than the defensive miscues in that playoff series I mentioned earlier)...he's hit .383 over the three postseason series he's been a part of...but I'll take Jeter's .304 over 16 postseason series...that's an awful lot of opportunities, and yet he still finds some way to raise the bar during October and hurt or not, make an impact in each series...

I think when their careers are all said and done, Nomar may very well be the better player -- with him finishing number 2 behind A-Rod and Jeter third...but it will depend on longevity -- Nomar just hasn't proven enough yet, for long enough to put him ahead of Jeter in my book...maybe in a year or two, but not now...that's why I voted Jeter, although I'm a huge Nomar fan as well.

Having said all that, I think Tejada is good -- hits for power like Nomar...and he is approaching that class....

As for this year alone, Vizquel is having a great year -- and probably deserves to go the All Star game before Jeter or Nomar. Jeter's in a bit of a slide lately and has struck out way too much this year...Tejada's numbers are right up there with both Nomar and Jeter this year...

I know Guzman is not having a good year but he seems like he might have the tools to get closer to the elite SS in the next year or two...what do you guys think of Guzman?

hmrsf

06-16-2002, 08:15 AM

Great stuff Luna. I have to take you task on one fact. Saying Nomar does not play through injuries is silly.

Nomar was out a season due to split tendon that was injured in 1999. He won the batting title in '99 and '00. The amazing fact is won the batting title in '00 while having this problem that rresulted in surgery in '01.

So clearly he played hurt for over a year and played well.;)

Nomar/ Jeter will be answered soon enough. Both are wonderful players that are a joy to watch. :D

Craig S.

06-16-2002, 09:47 AM

Nomar is far better than Jeter when he's healthy. No question - his numbers per game, including RCAA, are as good as ARod's. I just hope he stays well, and we don't have to aruge about how good he would've, could've, should've been.

I hope Nomar's injuries have healed, and he doesn't get that "soft" rap. He's too good a player to have that label.

VNV Nation

06-16-2002, 10:50 AM

I had never realized, until just looking at it now, how close Nomar is to A-Rod in career ratios. I think that the perception that A-Rod is head and shoulders above Nomar is based on the fact that he hits more homers and did 40-40 and doesn't miss any games, so he drives in 130 runs instead of 110.

I think you do have to take A-Rod's numbers with a grain of salt, since Texas is now one of the best hitter's parks in the league. STill, playing 160 games is better than 130, and A-Rod will have the better numbers at the end of the day.

soxfan121

06-16-2002, 03:10 PM

Very interesting debate thus far...thanks for all the insight.

I do want to make two points; First, Nomar is the first righthanded hitter to win back-to-back batting titles in the AL since Joe Dimaggio. Upon further inspection, there is a remarkable similarity between Nomar and Joe D. Both played less than the full slate of games, both hit for high average, were very tough to strikeout, both could have hit more home-runs if not for their home ballparks (see Monster, Green and Nomar's double totals in his home splits).

Second, I do not think that statistics are the end-all-be-all of debates such as this (the "who's better?" debates). It is hard to compare players who are fundamentally different kinds of players, even if they do occupy the same defensive position. Nomar is hitter, Arod a slugger. They do not approach AB's the same way, they do not have similiar hitting skills. But each is fantastically talented at what they do.

Statistics can carry you a long way in these discussions, but reliance upon statistics alone warps and distorts the truth. Remember kids - there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Each one of them gives you some version of the truth.

calexpat

06-16-2002, 03:40 PM

I guess you're right, if you mean "Who's better?" in a platonic sense, ie, "Who is the most perfect representation of the ideal baseball player?"

But if you mean, "Who contributes the most to winning baseball games?" then you can compare, especially when they play the same position in the same league at the same time. This latter question is basically a quantitative question, and can only be answered with numbers.

As for the lies and statistics--why do we think we spend so much time debating the fine points of stats? To separate the lies from the truth.

b-ball-lunachik

06-16-2002, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by hmrsf
Great stuff Luna. I have to take you task on one fact. Saying Nomar does not play through injuries is silly.

Nomar was out a season due to split tendon that was injured in 1999. He won the batting title in '99 and '00. The amazing fact is won the batting title in '00 while having this problem that rresulted in surgery in '01.

So clearly he played hurt for over a year and played well.;)

Nomar/ Jeter will be answered soon enough. Both are wonderful players that are a joy to watch. :D

fair enough hm -- like I said, I was lazy in copy/pasting and it was refuting the Red Sox fan who was comparing stats and said it didn't matter than Jeter had played more games -- and maybe he should have sat if he was injured...Jeter's defense has not been good the past couple of years -- it's better this year mostly because he's healthy...I think Nomar has more skills and talent than Jeter (except of course for baserunning)-- and if they both project out the same stats from now until their careers end, Nomar's probably the better player but to this point it's Jeter. Can't believe I'm defending Jeter so much -- I'm usually pretty tough on him!! :D

soxfan121

06-16-2002, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by calexpat
I guess you're right, if you mean "Who's better?" in a platonic sense, ie, "Who is the most perfect representation of the ideal baseball player?"

But if you mean, "Who contributes the most to winning baseball games?" then you can compare, especially when they play the same position in the same league at the same time. This latter question is basically a quantitative question, and can only be answered with numbers.

calexpat,

Great points. I am often more interested in the "perfect representation" because I often see so much in both guys - and trying to answer who's better right now is like trying to determine if Picasso or Van Gogh was better after seeing sketches of their next masterpiece.

As for your second paragraph, I also agree. It can be quantitatively determined "who contributes more to winning baseball games." However, too much is made of projections (like Arod and his home run totals) and not enough of actual things that help a ballclub win ballgames. I'd be interested to see the Win Share numbers for all of the Big Three (or Four, if we include Jimmy Rollins, which I think we should).

Fuzzy Bear

06-16-2002, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by soxfan121

I'd be interested to see the Win Share numbers for all of the Big Three (or Four, if we include Jimmy Rollins, which I think we should).

A .283 hitter with a .330 OBP in this company? His glove ain't good enough to crash the party, no way, no how.

Craig S.

06-16-2002, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by soxfan121
I'd be interested to see the Win Share numbers for all of the Big Three (or Four, if we include Jimmy Rollins, which I think we should).

It will be interesting to see the numbers this year. What gets me is that I've read a couple of posts here that seem to criticize ARod and his inability to help Texas win. Here are the numbers for the past 3 years:

1999
Jeter 35
Nomar 32
Arod 23

2000
Arod 37
Nomar 29
Jeter 23

2001
ARod 37
Nomar 3 (hurt)
Jeter 28

So ARod contributed as much to the Rangers last year as he did with the Mariners in 2000 (assuming you believe the philosophy behind this book).

Close competition between the 3, so it will be interesting to watch the next couple of years.

johnny

06-17-2002, 01:17 AM

Basically, if your favorite team has one of these 3...you're happy. :)

jjjjherman

06-17-2002, 11:15 AM

Another way to look at it, but I do not have the #'s:

Does anybody have Bill James Win Share #'s for the last five years on the five players mentioned, by year and than we can look at it in total.

In no order, A-rod, Jeter, Nomar, Miguel, Aurilia. For comparison , obviously people may feel free to disagree, you can throw in the best five years of Ripken.

My guess is that A-rod will come in at about 10 points higher.

J

hmrsf

06-17-2002, 11:24 AM

Bill James Historical Abstract, has them listed as #17 all time. He states that it is too early to rate them yet.

The list is as follows:

1.Wagner
2.Vaughn
3.Ripken
4.Yount
5.Banks
6.Larkin
7.Smith
8.Cronin
9.Trammell
10.Reese

Craig S.

06-17-2002, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by jjjjherman
Another way to look at it, but I do not have the #'s:

Does anybody have Bill James Win Share #'s for the last five years on the five players mentioned, by year and than we can look at it in total.

In no order, A-rod, Jeter, Nomar, Miguel, Aurilia. For comparison , obviously people may feel free to disagree, you can throw in the best five years of Ripken.

My guess is that A-rod will come in at about 10 points higher.

J

I posted the last 3 years just a few messages before yours. ARod does seem to come out ahead in the past couple, but Nomar and Jeter are pretty even.

VNV Nation

06-17-2002, 12:26 PM

Rod 34 22 30 23 37 37

Jeter 18 19 27 35 23 28

Nomar 26 27 32 29 2

Ripken's first five:
23 35 37 25 28

Ripken's best five:
37, 35, 34 28, 26

jjjjherman

06-17-2002, 12:58 PM

Sorry, did not see your post above when I posted the Win Shares post.

To echo johnny,

Can't see much difference between the 3 using Bill's system (though I am not sure what # difference is statistically different in Bill's system (would love to know??)

Nomar's injury does and will hurt him (short term, and possibly long, but only time will tell)

They are all excellent players!!!

It is nice to see that any of their years are comparable to a HOFer like Cal. Shows how much the position has progressed!

Though, I am sure somebody has argued this already, Jeter does have the rings to show! Does not make HIM a better player, but always helps when you look at a career once it is done.

Would love to see Tejada take the leap into the group, just needs to pick up his his #s outside of HR, R, and RBI.

Fuzzy Bear

06-17-2002, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by VNV Nation
Rod 34 22 30 23 37 37

Jeter 18 19 27 35 23 28

Nomar 26 27 32 29 2

Ripken's first five:
23 35 37 25 28

Ripken's best five:
37, 35, 34 28, 26

What are Tejada's #s on this?

KCBOOMER

06-17-2002, 02:02 PM

To me it A-Rod then Nomar then Jeter. A-Rod is two years younger than Nomar and has played two years longer. Actually three if you count Nomar's injury year as not being there.

Is A-Rod really better than Nomar? Well, if you were starting a new ball club and you could pick anyone in the majors as your man who do you pick? I don't know about you but younger, healthier, stronger, faster, and better defensively work for me. That's A-Rod.

VNV Nation

06-17-2002, 02:08 PM

Tejada 7 20 23 25

Win Shares, 2001 SS:

A-Rod 37
Aurilia 33
Jeter 28
Cabrera 26 (!)
Tejada 25
Rollins 20
Guzman 18
Alex Gonzalez (TOR) 16
Ricky Guterrerez 16

jjjjherman

06-17-2002, 02:15 PM

Tejada falls a step below the group, let's see if he can build and continue to be an above avg. SS.

Knew Cabrera was good (have him on my fantasy team's bench right now) but did not realize his year was that good in '01.

Hope he can pick it up and finish off the year strong. I was hoping to see him .270+ and 20/20, but it is not looking good at this point.

VNV Nation

06-17-2002, 03:04 PM

Cabrera is rated as off the charts defensively, that's why he ranks so high.

jjjjherman

06-17-2002, 03:15 PM

ahhh yes, the total package that Win Share gives us in one number.

Love the system, does help to stop the arguments when discussing players and start talking about Avg. vs. SB vs. OBP vs. OPS, etc.

Also factors in defense which most arguments do not, that is why we have Cabrera in their.

I have to remember, we are just not talking stats and qualitatively speaking about his defense, but now have a quantitative argument.

J

gyb13

06-19-2002, 05:27 PM

let's look at them by age:

Age 20
ARod .358 .414 .631

Age 21
ARod .300 .350 .496

Age 22
ARod .310 .360 .560
Jeter .314 .370 .430
Tejada .233 .298 .384

Age 23
ARod .285 .357 .586
Nomar .306 .342 .534
Jeter .291 .370 .405
Tejada .251 .325 .427

Age 24
ARod .316 .420 .606
Nomar .323 .362 .584
Jeter .324 .384 .481
Tejada .275 .349 .479

Age 25
Nomar .357 .418 .603
ARod .318 .399 .622
Jeter .349 .438 .552
Tejada .267 .326 .476

Age 26
Nomar .372 .434 .599
Jeter .339 .416 .481

Age 27
Jeter .311 .377 .480

Golden Bear

06-19-2002, 07:10 PM

From the above, it looks like Jeter may have peaked early.

jjjjherman

06-19-2002, 07:22 PM

Not fair to say about Jeter (I am a Met fan, so I have not reason to defen Jeter) but he is only turning 28 (I believe) and has MANY years to play.

I very much doubt that he has peaked. Looking at the above numbers his avg. dipped slight in the past two years, as has his OBP (SLIGHTLY), but is SLG has jumped.

Overall his OPS is in line with his career, except for the jump at age 25.

Looks like his avg. OPS (w/o doing the calculation) is about .875 not too shabby for a SS.

Golden Bear

06-19-2002, 07:40 PM

Not a knock, just an observation; his best seasons are, in order, 1999-1998-2000, and when you throw in his other numbers, they start to look a little bell-shaped. It's a high bell, especially for a SS, but there it is.

However, of course Jeter may begin to post mega-big numbers again (his numbers last year and this year are still terrific; they just don't match his previous standards.)

But occasionally players, including (maybe especially including) great players, have their best seasons early on and then settle into a plateau of outstanding for the rest of their careers. Eddie Mathews, Mel Ott, Johnny Bench, and Al Kaline all come to mind. Jeter may well finish his career in their company (less power, but more hits, BA, etc. -- HOF caliber career, I mean). He's the best bet for 3000 hits in his age bracket, I'd guesstimate.

You're right though; in retrospect, that may not be fair...it's too soon to tell.

I did say "may have", though, for what it's worth.

Golden Bear

06-19-2002, 07:42 PM

PS: Including this season, his OPS to date is .857, comprised of .390 OBP and .467 SLG.

WiredTiger

06-20-2002, 10:34 AM

My late :2cents: on the topic...

ARod is by far and away the best SS in the game. It's not even a close contest.

As for the rest...

I would take Nomar ahead of Jeter. Nomar would be a lot further ahead if he hadn't been injured so much.

Tejada, Aurilla, Rollins and the like are further down the list. Tejada is good but I still think Jeter is a better hitter.

poorme

06-20-2002, 10:44 AM

Am I the only one who finds this thread a snoozer?

A-Rod is best. Then Nomar. Then Jeter. After that it's a long way dooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnn!!!!!!!!

Fuzzy Bear

06-22-2002, 02:00 PM

How long a way is it from Jeter to Tejada?

Fuzzy Bear

11-12-2002, 06:33 PM

It's a whole lot later now, folks, and Tejada is the MVP, so where does he stand now? Is he now part of the elite 4 shortstops? Has someone dropped out?

Right now, I think that Tejada is #2, behind A-Rod.

Nomar and Jeter are #3 and #4 respectively.

I would go so far to say that Tejada may be in A-Rod's class, though not as good, but he is certainly playing at a higher level than Nomar and Jeter, who have dropped, and are now at a level of play slightly below.

It's now the Big Two and the Next Two, IMO.

hmrsf

11-12-2002, 07:32 PM

*********Disclaimer warning! I am a homer! I am also an informed baseball fan!;) ***********

You can have your Payrod, I will stick with my Nomar! Saying that he is injury prone is as mythical as saying Fenway is a hitters park. Saying those things many times will not make them true.

Nomar has had 1 major injury which has landed him on the DL several times. He took a ball off the wrist in a Baltimore series. From there he masked an injury that would require a surgery. The surgery would require 1 year post surgery recovery (even for Normar the super human fitness god.). That same injury he won the batting title in '99. Why would he not expect to get away with it again. Sooooooo is he injury prone, as a rehab specialist.... I think NOT! BTW Fenway Park is as close to being a neutral park as any in the league.......look that stat up. You must use current info.

I think Nomar's 2003 will be more like '99. I can't wait!!!! Opening day March 31 against TB in 16 hours 23 minutes! ST is only 95 days away!!!!:bounce:

JamesI

11-13-2002, 12:29 AM

No. I'd rank the big three this way
A-Rod
Tejada
Nomar.

Jeter is a distant 4th

tortured angel

11-13-2002, 09:45 AM

Based on price vs production, which many teams have to do, Tejada is the man to have right now.

JamesI

11-13-2002, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by tortured angel
Based on price vs production, which many teams have to do, Tejada is the man to have right now.

:agree:

KCBOOMER

11-13-2002, 11:16 AM

Tejada has progressed to the point where he deserves consideration with the Big Three. His career to date doesn't begin to compare with the B3 at the same point in their careers, but if you are asking how does 2002 stack up then he has probably passed Jeter but the A-Rod and Nomar are still comfortably ahead.

moose

11-13-2002, 11:47 AM

i think it's unquestionable that tejada is a member of the big three.

that is, tejada, nomar, jeter.

to lump a-rod in insults a-rod.

b-ball-lunachik

11-13-2002, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by Golden Bear
From the above, it looks like Jeter may have peaked early.

you might be right GB...his numbers are declining each year -- unless of course, it's the postseason -- why can't he do that all year? Jeter is going to be 29 next year and if his numbers decline again next year, it will prove your theory for sure...

Nomar is going to be 30 next year -- I'm not sure he's ever going to go back to the numbers he had before that injury -- this year will be telling for him...

if Tejada continues to improve, soon it will be A-Rod, followed by Tejada if it's not there already...I still think A-Rod is in a class by himself though...

hmrsf

11-13-2002, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by b-ball-lunachik

Nomar is going to be 30 next year -- I'm not sure he's ever going to go back to the numbers he had before that injury -- this year will be telling for him...

I think this years numbers are already telling! Nomar played 156 games with built in rest. Jeter played 157.

Nomar is back! Next year will be more like '99. This is a very special player. To discount Normar and Jeter like day old bread due to latest Arod and TA'shotta because they are the new media darlings is just...........silly. Time will tell. I watch way too much AL East. These guys are great! Jeter and Garciaparra are great because of each other. Like Williams and Joe D, Bird and Magic.

moose

11-13-2002, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by hmrsf
. To discount Normar and Jeter like day old bread due to latest Arod and TA'shotta because they are the new media darlings is just...........silly.
to not recognize how superior arod is to the other three is just..........silly!

hmrsf

11-13-2002, 02:30 PM

Arod is wonderful. To project that when all three career are done ............NOW:in 2002......well it seems a bit premature. Do you remember Bo Jackson? Bo could do eveything! Too bad he could not do eveything vey long. Baseball is a funny sport.

gyb13

11-13-2002, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by hmrsf
To discount Normar and Jeter like day old bread due to latest Arod and TA'shotta because they are the new media darlings is just...........silly. it's not about being a media darling, it's about producing every day. ARod and Tejada play every day (ARod over the past 2 yrs, Tejada over the past 4) and they are playing, in 2002, at a higher level than Nomar and Jeter.
Originally posted by hmrsf
Arod is wonderful. To project that when all three career are done ............NOW:in 2002......well it seems a bit premature. Do you remember Bo Jackson? Bo could do eveything! Too bad he could not do eveything vey long. Bo played about 4 almost full seasons and portions of 4 others. ARod has already played 7 full seasons (despite being just 27) and has been outstanding in 6 of them (and great in the other). To say that he is unfulfilled potential or just a flash in the pan like Bo is preposterous.
The shortstops are:
1. ARod

2. Tejada

3. Nomar

4. Jeter

hmrsf

11-13-2002, 03:47 PM

gyb and moose-

your scales and mine are different. Bo Jackson was beyond a flash in the pan. He was a sports icon never seen before in that generation. Time tells.

Fuzzy Bear

11-14-2002, 04:16 PM

I wonder how the Big 4 really rate when adjusted for park effects.

I would think that A-Rod, who I rate as #1, does get a big boost from his park.

I would think Tejada and Jeter are hurt significantly by the parks they play in.

I'm not sure on Nomar. I'm not quite ready to buy into the idea that Fenway is a "neutral" park. I've seen posts here talking about WRIGLEY FIELD being a PITCHER'S park. I think some of Red Sox Nation exaggerates (in the best "homer" tradition, of course) to the degree that Fenway has become more difficult for hitters.

I'd love to see data.

hmrsf

11-14-2002, 06:09 PM

In this thread is the data, Fuzzy. Fenway ranks as close to neutral as possible and has since the the building of the 600 club. Check the facts.:cool:

sweaver

11-15-2002, 11:55 AM

Fenway and Wrigley have both played as pitcher's parks in recent years, at least partly because most of the new parks are such extreme hitter's parks.

gyb has it pegged for this year, but what about next? I wager A-Rod will be first again, but the other three will be close together. And I do think Tejada has earned the right to be counted among the elite.

Jim Rice

11-15-2002, 12:16 PM

Yes, I am biased, but I think it's way too early to say Tejada has surpassed Nomar.

I agree that A-Rod is the best, without question. I agree that Jeter has fallen off enough that it's safe to say Tejada is now the third member of the Big 3.

But to argue that Tejda is better than Nomar based upon one MVP season for Tejada and one injury season for Nomar is premature at best. According to The Baseball Prospectus, these are their career WARP3 numbers:

1996
Nomar: 0.6

1997
Nomar: 9.9
Tejada: -0.2

1998
Nomar: 9.6
Tejada: 3.2

1999
Nomar: 10.8
Tejada: 6.2

2000
Nomar: 11.2
Tejada: 8.3

2001
Nomar: 1.1
Tejada: 8.1

2002
Nomar: 10.1
Tejada: 10.4

Nomar has posted two years with higher scores than Tejada's MVP year, and posted a nearly identical number in 2002 - without even placing in the top 10 in MVP voting. Nomar has posted five years that are better than any of Tejada's with the exception of 2002. And note that he posted his best figure in 2000 - the season he played entirely with a split tendon in his wrist. On top of that, as wonderful as Tejada has been in the post-season, Nomar has been other-worldly. His career post-season OPS is 1.389!! At the various ages of his career, Tejada has been most similar to Alex Gonzalex, Ron Hansen and Earl Williams. Nomar was most similar to Yogi Berra and Ernie Banks.

It's really not all that close. Yes, Tejada is younger and cheaper. But Nomar is still better.

hmrsf

11-15-2002, 03:14 PM

JR let me send you an internet high 5!

gyb13

11-19-2002, 12:44 PM

JR - I don't think anyone here is arguing that Tejada has had a better career than Nomar.

All we're saying is that, right now, Tejada is playing better. Couple that with the historical fact that he's been more durable and Miguel comes out a little bit on top.

Jim Rice

11-19-2002, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by gyb13
JR - I don't think anyone here is arguing that Tejada has had a better career than Nomar.

All we're saying is that, right now, Tejada is playing better. Couple that with the historical fact that he's been more durable and Miguel comes out a little bit on top.

I'll concede the health edge to Tejada, but I wouldn't say he is better right now than Nomar. Maybe the health issue makes him more valuable overall, but on a pure performance basis Nomar still has a slight edge. Normalized for ballparks, Tejada probably draws even, but they're really no worse than neck-and-neck right now. Tejada would be more desireable to start a team with since he's younger, but in terms of actual production in 2002, the two are producing at essentially the same level, both offensively and defensively. Nomar has to drop off or Miguel has to take another step up before I wold call Tejada the better of the two. Nomar's simply got too solid a history to downgrade him just yet.

hmrsf

11-19-2002, 01:22 PM

JR, don't even downgrade him healthwise....JEESESHHHHHHHH!!! We are talking one injury!!!!! That same injury he won the batting title on. That tendon split! To surgically repair took one year post surgical........!!! Nomar knew it.....doctors knew it.......but the fans and the press did not need to know it at the time.

These may be players but they are still patients and people! His comeback year is truely remarkable. Very comparable numberwise to '99 .........it is scary to think of what he will do in '03.

His numbers are not that far off of the other shortstops AND bear in mind THIS IS A REHAB YEAR!!! :p

gyb13

11-19-2002, 04:51 PM

okay, if you concede that they're neck-and-neck in production, I offer two more pieces of information which would make me want to have Tejada over Nomar on my team, right now:

Age
Nomar 29
Tejada 26

2002 Salary
Nomar 8.6 million
Tejada 3.6 million

But anyways.....broadly, we come to the agreement on the question of this thread: the big 3 is a triangle, with ARod at the top, and Nomar and Miguel below him. Jeter needs to reverse his downward trend if the trinity is to become a foursome.

Another interesting thing is that Miguel and Nomar have very different approaches at the plate. Although they put up similar K and BB figures, Miguel is a prototypical A's ballplayer, seeing a lot of pitches, whereas Nomar goes up hacking. Tejada sees 3.9 pitches per PA (tied for 38 in the majors), while Nomar sees only 3.1 (150th out of 151).