Active players for the Hall?

[sweaver]

The Canseco/HOF thread got me thinking, in a more general way, about what current players would be Hall of Famers based on what they have accomplished, even if they suffered a career-ending injury and could play no more.

Or, to put it another way, who is playing now that could get into the Hall of Fame, based only on their record to date?

[Xanadu Dragon]

Bonds, Rickey, Clemens, Unit, Palmeiro, Piazza, Sosa, Alomar, McGriff, Raines, Maddux, Glavine, and Mo Rivera (maybe).

[Golden Bear]

A few more:

Near locks: Ken Griffey Jr, Craig Biggio, Ivan Rodriguez, Barry Larkin

Borderline, but very comparable with guys who are in: David Cone, John Franco (#2 all time saves), Juan Gonzalez, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell

[sweaver]

I don't think Franco gets in. The Hall is not being very kind to relievers. We discussed Gonzalez before, with the consensus being he needs a couple more good years to get in.

Bonds and Clemens are certainly first-line Hall of Famers. Who else, right now?

[sweaver]

Well, Rickey. But are Maddux and Piazza and Sosa in now, or do they need a couple more good years, also?

[Golden Bear]

Originally posted by sweaver
I don't think Franco gets in. The Hall is not being very kind to relievers. We discussed Gonzalez before, with the consensus being he needs a couple more good years to get in.


If Gonzalez's career ended right now, he wouldn't get in 1st ballot, and might not get in through the BBWAA at all. But 20, 30, 40 years down the line, those gaudy RBI totals and the two MVP's would almost certainly get him through the door.

He's got 397 HR's and 1282 RBI's, with a .297 career BA. That's an awfully impressive career line.

Franco certainly doesn't get in right away; the save stat just isn't being taken seriously (witness Jeff Reardon, #4 all-time, being dismissed with a yawn by the BBWAA). But, again, 30 years from now, when people like Eck, Goose, Rivera, etc., are in, that save total will stick out like a sore thumb. He's got a nice low career ERA too.

[Golden Bear]

Originally posted by sweaver
Well, Rickey. But are Maddux and Piazza and Sosa in now, or do they need a couple more good years, also?

They're all in, right now, 1st ballot. Maddux would be over 95%; Sosa at about 80%, Piazza edging in around 76-77%.

[LeGrandOrange]

Add Mark Grace to the borderlines now that he's got a ring.
Also, it wouldn't be an active HOF post without a mention of Edgar Martinez. :seamhead:

[Xanadu Dragon]

Edgar will never get it - sad, but, most likely true.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Palmeiro, too, IMO.

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
Palmeiro, too, IMO.

He's got just about 2500 hits, 450 HR, 1500 RBI and a bunch of Gold Gloves - already. He'll make it.

[Duque]

We know the Clemenses, Madduxes, Randy Johnsons and possibly the Tom Glavines are good locks to get in the Hall - but among the 2nd tier of pitchers, does anyone stand out?

I remember reading an ESPN piece a year ago stating that, of the Cone-Schilling-Chuck Finley-Kevin Brown group, the one that best stood a chance to pick up some ground was Brown - and until his latest injury, I would've agreed. He has been a much better pitcher in his 30s than he ever was in his 20s.

If Smoltz can pull an Eckersley - he also stands a decent chance. He's got that "postseason clutch" rep thing going for him too.

[Golden Bear]

Originally posted by Duque
We know the Clemenses, Madduxes, Randy Johnsons and possibly the Tom Glavines are good locks to get in the Hall - but among the 2nd tier of pitchers, does anyone stand out?

I remember reading an ESPN piece a year ago stating that, of the Cone-Schilling-Chuck Finley-Kevin Brown group, the one that best stood a chance to pick up some ground was Brown - and until his latest injury, I would've agreed. He has been a much better pitcher in his 30s than he ever was in his 20s.

If Smoltz can pull an Eckersley - he also stands a decent chance. He's got that "postseason clutch" rep thing going for him too.

Smoltz also has that "part of a group" thing going; it's a fallacy, but it may come into play, because for the last 10 years, when you think Braves, you think Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. If he's close, I suspect this will nudge him over the top.

Brown's a guy who's a lot like Mussina; he always is a good pitcher, sometimes a very good one, but somehow he lacks a aura of greatness. This is a very subjective thing, to be sure -- but so is the voting.

[sweaver]

Among pitchers, Clemens definitely gets in, probably Maddux at this point, but Glavine looks short to me. He'll have to post some more wins first. Randy Johnson probably gets in on the Koufax plan of domination, even with just 200 wins.

Pedro Martinez would have to get in on the Addie Joss vote right now. He'll have to post some more numbers to make his case.

Kevin Brown is still way short. Even with two 20-win seasons and postseason success, he just doesn't have the overwhelming career numbers.

[Fuzzy Bear]

INSTANT IMMORTALITY AFTER 5 YEARS: Bonds, Rickey, Clemens, Unit, Piazza, Maddux, Pedro, Griffey Jr., Sosa, Glavine.

MAY HAVE TO WAIT, BUT WOULD GET THERE BY THE WRITERS: Larkin, Biggio, Bagwell, R. Alomar, Juan Gone, Canseco, Palmiero, Larry Walker, Frank Thomas

NEEDS 1-2 MORE SEASONS TO CLINCH IT; OUTSIDE SHOT WITH THE WRITERS AS OF NOW: McGriff, I-Rod, Kevin Brown, Bernie Williams.

OUTSIDE SHOT WITH WRITERS; MORE LIKELY WITH VETERANS COMMITTEE: Cone, Matt Williams, Mo Vaughn, Kenny Lofton.

PROBABLY NOT: Mussina, John Franco, Mariano Rivera, Mark Grace.

DARKHORSES: Luis Gonzalez, Moises Alou.

Gonzalez and Alou have done more to help their chances for the Hall of Fame than anyone else in baseball over the last 3 seasons. Despite missing 1999, Alou has his well over .300 the last three seasons he played, and now has a lifetime BA of .306?!? with a .372 OBP! Gonzalez is only up to .286 lifetime, but has played at a higher level than Alou over the last 3 years, and is now regarded as a great player. Finishing strong counts for a lot; in 5 years, the late surges of these guys will be in the forefront of the minds of the writers if they blow out their ACL and are finished this spring, while Grace will be remembered as being part of a championship team in a supporting role (Gonzalez and the pitchers are seen as the heart).

I also think that Gonzalez' and Alou's chances for enshrinement multiply exponentially if they have two more years that are like their last three in seasonal notation, or even slightly less than that.

[LeGrandOrange]

Surprised no one brought up Manny Ramirez yet. His next year will be #10, and after that, I think you can put together a legitimate campaign for him.
Also, after A-Rod's 2003 season, do we consider him as "Automatic"?

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by LeGrandOrange
Surprised no one brought up Manny Ramirez yet. His next year will be #10

Yeah, but, the 1st 2 were not full seasons. So, it's more like this will be number 8.

[LeGrandOrange]

The Hall will consider a 1 game season and a 162 game season the season, as 1 season. Dizzy Dean only pitched 6 full seasons, but he's recognized with 12 because of his fragments, and that's why Jay Dean didn't have to have any special accomodations made for his induction.
And it's Manny's 9th "full" season in 2002, his first season was during the strike so it's close enough to a "full" season.

[Xanadu Dragon]

I know where you're going - but, personally, I like to see a guy play 10 full years before calling him great - - just me, I know C-town only cares about 10 years.

[LeGrandOrange]

Understood and acknowledged.
Still, you have to admit, Ramirez has some terrific numbers for his 8+ years. When he gets "Cooperstown eligible", he'll be an 85% lock, I'd think.

[Xanadu Dragon]

Yeah, but, the question was - is he today?

[LeGrandOrange]

Gotcha. My apologies for diversioning.
He's going to be a writer's lock in a few years, barring any major injuries.
There's actually not THAT much difference from him and Moises in terms of career-to-date (although Manny is better by 15-20%), and as is known, he's been considered.
Never the less, I should think of other willing active HOF parties. I kinda think Sheffield could be considerable now.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by LeGrandOrange
Surprised no one brought up Manny Ramirez yet. His next year will be #10, and after that, I think you can put together a legitimate campaign for him.

If Manny suffered a career ending injury on Opening Day this year, I believe he would go into the Hall-of-Fame by the writers, though not necessarily right away. There is a prejudice against enshrining baseball greats with short careers, but Manny's BA is .312 as we speak. That, along with his power, and the fact that he's never had a real "off" year, would bring about his election if he had 8 full seasons and 2 cups of coffee to make 10. Manny has had the type of career that the average fan could advocate in a letter to the SPORTING NEWS. His strengths are easy to see, and his shortcomings don't readily show up in the stats.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by LeGrandOrange
I kinda think Sheffield could be considerable now.

Sheffield is similar to Dick Allen, both in career triple crown stats and career paths. Both started at 3B and were moved leftward along the defensive spectrum, Allen to 1B, Sheffield to the outfield. Both had behavior problems; Sheffield appears to have done a better job of getting a grip on his personal life.

I have trouble with the idea of Allen as a Hall-of-Famer, because while he was a great talent, and posted great numbers for the era he played in, his behavior and antics kept his teams from winning. Sheffield is much better than Allen in that regard, but he still has the attitude rap. His BA is .295; Sheffield would need to get it over .300 to be elected if his career ended in May of this year.

Sheffield is a little unlikely to get 3,000 hits; he is a little more likely to attain 500 HRs. I think he'll need to do one, or the other, to get into the Hall, even though I think he'll live to see scores of inferior talents enshrined. That's what happens when the attitude rap takes hold.

[sweaver]

I am generally in agreement with FB's list, although I don't agree that Glavine is an automatic at this point. Pitchers with similar credentials are having trouble getting in now. Also, some of the guys on the 1-2 years list probably need 3-4 good ones, like Bernie.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by sweaver
I am generally in agreement with FB's list, although I don't agree that Glavine is an automatic at this point.

I didn't think Glavine would be an automatic until I looked up his record to be sure. Some highlights:

A: Five (5) 20-win seasons

B: Two (2) Cy Young Awards

C: Currently 224-132 (.620 winning %)

D: 3.40 career ERA (league average 4.13)

Glavine has the chrome and leather to go with the nuts and bolts. I can't think of a single pitcher with five 20-win seasons and two Cy Youngs that wasn't elected to the Hall. Glavine has done the things that Hall-of-Famers do that are easy to see and explain; his credentials are not subtle, and do not depend on "outside the stats" qualifications. If a guy is to go into the Hall with a short career, his case needs to be obvious BY THE STATISTICS, or he'll have a long wait. Tom Glavine's case is one of the most obvious cases in baseball history, when you think about it.

[LeGrandOrange]

You know what amazes me about Glavine? He was drafted by the Los Angeles Kings ahead of Luc Robitaille, who became the greatest left wing in NHL history.
Other then maybe a few years, how often has he been the ace though? Wasn't Smoltzie the ace during Glavine's first years, and Maddux since?

[sweaver]

Point taken, FB. You've won me over.

Especially after Glavine pitches 3-4 more years and gets close to 300 wins.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Given that the HoF loves compilers, John Franco is in.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
Given that the HoF loves compilers, John Franco is in.

Except that they don't like relief pitchers, so I think Franco's out unless Gossage or another break the ice.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by SmedIndy


Except that they don't like relief pitchers, so I think Franco's out unless Gossage or another break the ice. 2nd all-time on the saves list gets Franco in, IMO.

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
2nd all-time on the saves list gets Franco in, IMO.

Funny thing is, I don't think it got the # 1 guy in.

[SmedIndy]

Dunno. Save totals are kind of dubious. I know I look at them with a ho-hum. When a talent like Bobby Thigpen can accumulate 57, then I think even the most accumulation-mad HOF voter may have to look at other qualities in a HOFer.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by Xanadu Dragon


Funny thing is, I don't think it got the # 1 guy in. You don't think big Lee gets in? I'd have to agree, then, if he doesn't then Franco should not.

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
You don't think big Lee gets in? I'd have to agree, then, if he doesn't then Franco should not.

My bad - - I thought the passed on him already - - then, when I saw your post I remembered that next year is his first year on the ballot. It will be interesting - - let me start a thread on him.

[KCBOOMER]

You sure can't put Franco in if you don't put Big Lee in first.

Somehow reliefers who pitch three innings a week getting into the HoF is a hard thing to contemplate.

[WiredTiger]

My list... a little late but better than never.

Maddux
Clemens
Randy Johnson
Tom Glavine
Pedro Martinez
Trevor Hoffman (To me the best reliever of our generation, Rivera is just as good but hasn't done it as long as Hoffman has)

Bonds
R Henderson
Griffey Jr
Piazza
Robbie Alomar

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by KCBOOMER
Somehow reliefers who pitch three innings a week getting into the HoF is a hard thing to contemplate.

Amen, brother!:) I don't believe that the modern "closer" is any more worthy of the HOF than Tony Phillips; in fact, I could make a much better case for Tony. Relievers are still the guys who can't start; deprived of their mystique, it still boils down to that. I know I'm in the minority here, but I think the reliever system is a product of the players union to create stats (saves, holds) to artificially inflate the value of pitchers who can't start, and don't pitch many innings.

[sweaver]

This is a post by member Piazzadelivery, from a different thread, which is a good fit for this thread:

originally posted by Piazzadelivery

Current players who would get my vote now:

Pedro Martinez
Randy
Maddux
Clemens
Piazza
Glavine
Bagwell
Alomar
Henderson
Griffey
Bonds
Larkin
Frank Thomas
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman
IROD
Sosa



Players who will get my vote after 10 year of playing
AROD
VLAD
Chipper Jones

Players who one day may get my vote depending on how their full careers turn out:

Bernie Williams
Sheffield
Mike Mussina
Jeff Kent
Helton
Andruw Jones
J Giambi
Schilling
Petite
Juan Gone
Manny Ramirez
Jeter
Nomar
Biggio
Vizquel

Don't Know

McGriff
Palmiero

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear
INSTANT IMMORTALITY AFTER 5 YEARS: Bonds, Rickey, Clemens, Unit, Piazza, Maddux, Pedro, Griffey Jr., Sosa, Glavine.

MAY HAVE TO WAIT, BUT WOULD GET THERE BY THE WRITERS: Larkin, Biggio, Bagwell, R. Alomar, Juan Gone, Canseco, Palmiero, Larry Walker, Frank Thomas

NEEDS 1-2 MORE SEASONS TO CLINCH IT; OUTSIDE SHOT WITH THE WRITERS AS OF NOW: McGriff, I-Rod, Kevin Brown, Bernie Williams.

OUTSIDE SHOT WITH WRITERS; MORE LIKELY WITH VETERANS COMMITTEE: Cone, Matt Williams, Mo Vaughn, Kenny Lofton.

PROBABLY NOT: Mussina, John Franco, Mariano Rivera, Mark Grace.

DARKHORSES: Luis Gonzalez, Moises Alou.

This is one of my first posts with NetShrine. Most of the players mentioned.

A year later, there are some changes.

As to "INSTANT IMMORTALITY", the list is the same. I would add Rafael Palmiero once he attains 500 jacks.

I would add Manny Ramirez to "MAY HAVE TO WAIT, BUT WOULD GET THERE BY THE WRITERS"

I would add Gary Sheffield to "NEEDS 1-2 SEASONS TO CLINCH IT; OUTSIDE SHOT WITH THE WRITERS AS OF NOW" category. I would also add, with some reservations, Jeff Kent to this category. His six-year run as a 2B is SO remarkable, and, given that he has won an MVP award, the writers are aware of that.

I would add Curt Schilling to "DARKHORSES" and drop Alou and Gonzalez. Both Alou and Gonzalez undid the work they did to boost their chances with off years in 2002. I now doubt that either will make the HOF, and was probably over-optimistic about their chances to begin with, in retrospect.

I think Griffey, Jr. is no longer an automatic, but I believe he will be selected by the writers early on in the balloting.

Alex Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez are now in the categories of "INSTANT IMMORTALITY". Their accomplishments in short careers are SO great and SO stellar that they do not have to play another inning of baseball to enter the HOF on the 1st ballot.

I now doubt that Cone and Lofton will make it, even with the VC. They move to "PROBABLY NOT" status.

Other than Jeff Kent and Curt Schilling, I can't really think of a player who pushed his career forward last year to the point where he went from an afterthought to a legit candidate for the HOF. (Schilling pushed himself forward a LOT, but he still has a LOT of distance to go, granted that no other player has pushed himself as far forward toward the HOF in the last two (2) years as Schilling has.

[JamesI]

This is a good list Fuzzy, and in my opinion vvery accurate list. Palmeiro is automatic to me.

Its too early to list Mussina as anything. With time he could become automatic, or he could become nothing.

All of your may have to waits (other than Canseco and maybe Juan Gone) I think are in quickly upon being elidgible.

I would require a bit more of the Williams, Brown, IRod group. McGriff is in now or after this year.

Mariano Rivera and John Franco while I'm not sure about them, I think the writers will let them in.

I'd list Jeff Kent as "Will be Ron Santo 20 years from now, everyone says he needs to be in, but can't get elected"

[KCBOOMER]

Canseco has less of chance of being elected by the BBWAA than I do and I am a little short on the ten year playing requirement.

[pwdennis]

I can't believe I hadn't posted to this thread before now

Pitchers: Clemens, Maddox, Randy Johnson & Tom Glavine are absolute locks.

Barring a complete (and extended) flame out Pedro will be a lock.

Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling can get there with a few more good seasons. Smoltz and Appier could get there - the rest are too far away to consider at this time.

No reliever is a lock as I believe the career standards for a bullpen ace are still in the process of being sorted out. Dan Quisenberry was as good as any reliever ever and he wasn't close to making it to Cooperstown. I think that Eckersley and Smoltz, pitchers who had success both starting and relieving, are more likely to make it than a straight reliever

Current position players who would get my vote now:

Rickey Henderson is an automatic, if only he'd retire
Barry Bonds & Sammy Sosa - 1st ballot or the FBI should investigate
Mike Piazza & Ivan Rodriguez - have already done enough
Jeff Bagwell - ditto
Roberto Alomar & Craig Biggio - ditto
Ken Griffey Jr. - ditto
Juan Gonzalez - ditto
Barry Larkin - far better player than Ozzie Smith although not perceived as such - should get in , may take several ballots
Frank Thomas - I think he's done enough but it's close
Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez & Rafael Palmiero - I harbor no anti-DH prejudices
Bernie Williams - (as a Red Sox fan it kills me to say this but he is there in my book)

I think the following will likely play their way to Cooperstown, barring injuries: Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Kent, Todd Helton, Larry Walker, Jason Giambi,
Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra

[pwdennis]

p.s - if you consider Jose Canseco an active player, I would vote him into Cooperstown also, although not 1st ballot

Maddox, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Rickey are the 1st ballot HOF's on my list

[gyb13]

Originally posted by pwdennis
I would vote him into Cooperstown also, although not 1st ballot i still think that's the kinda thing that qualifies a hall-of-very-good player. either he's a HoF'er or he's not. none of this ballot stuff...

[pwdennis]

Originally posted by gyb13
i still think that's the kinda thing that qualifies a hall-of-very-good player. either he's a HoF'er or he's not. none of this ballot stuff...

I think now and have always thought that the issue of first ballots induction versus later ballot induction was a valid means of differentiating the quality of the candidates. Of the first ballot inductees the only recent one that were really questionable were Smith and Puckett

[Skip]

Please lets not get off on the first-ballot v. not first-ballot tangent again. We've done it before, although I cant recall if it was ever a thread topic or just a side issue that wouldn't die.

[Sopalt]

While I agree with most of the opinions posted most recently on this thread, I have one question. If so many guys playing at the same time are worthy of HOF consideration and perhaps entrance, what does this mean? It either tells me that (1) we're extremely lucky to be able to watch so many HOF-caliber players play or (2) somehow the unspoken, unwritten standards that we fans have regarding HOF consideration are now set too low. Regarding this second point, it used to be that 30 home runs in a season was an accomplishment and 450 home runs in a lifetime was worthy of serious HOF consideration. Now, 30 home runs in a season isn't quite the same accomplishment. Suppose that a guy hits 30 home runs in 15 different seasons. He may never finish in the top 5, maybe not even the top 10, for home runs in his league in any given year but could end up with 450+ home runs.

So which is it? Are we just fortunate to be able to watch a plethora of great ball players play? Or are previous HOF statistical benchmarks a little too low?

[JamesI]

Originally posted by Sopalt


So which is it? Are we just fortunate to be able to watch a plethora of great ball players play? Or are previous HOF statistical benchmarks a little too low?

Yes. 450 homers is not automatic, and at the same time there are a lot of great first basemen right now (that seems to be the position with the biggest log jam of possible hall of famers) as well as other positions.

[pwdennis]

Originally posted by Sopalt
While I agree with most of the opinions posted most recently on this thread, I have one question. If so many guys playing at the same time are worthy of HOF consideration and perhaps entrance, what does this mean? It either tells me that (1) we're extremely lucky to be able to watch so many HOF-caliber players play or (2) somehow the unspoken, unwritten standards that we fans have regarding HOF consideration are now set too low. Regarding this second point, it used to be that 30 home runs in a season was an accomplishment and 450 home runs in a lifetime was worthy of serious HOF consideration. Now, 30 home runs in a season isn't quite the same accomplishment. Suppose that a guy hits 30 home runs in 15 different seasons. He may never finish in the top 5, maybe not even the top 10, for home runs in his league in any given year but could end up with 450+ home runs.

So which is it? Are we just fortunate to be able to watch a plethora of great ball players play? Or are previous HOF statistical benchmarks a little too low?

Good question - I'm afraid that the answer may not be known until much more time has passed. I would presume that a player who hit 30+ homeruns in 15 or more seasons was at least a pretty good hitter

[gyb13]

:warn: guys, let's remember the central question to this thread is:
what current players would be Hall of Famers based on what they have accomplished, even if they suffered a career-ending injury and could play no more.

Or, to put it another way, who is playing now that could get into the Hall of Fame, based only on their record to date?
while it's hard to disaggregate the merits of current players from the discussion on whether standards are changing, let's try to keep that to separate threads...

The consensus seems to be, roughly:

locks
Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Griffey, Henderson, Johnson, Maddux, Piazza, Sosa

near locks
Alomar, Bagwell, Canseco, Gonzalez, Larkin, McGriff, Palmeiro, Raines, IRodriguez, Thomas, Walker

maybes
Appier, Biggio, Brown, Cone, Finley, Franco, Grace, Hoffman, Kent, Lofton, EMartinez, PMartinez, Mussina, Ramirez, Rivera, Schilling, Sheffield, Smoltz, Vaughn, BWilliams, MWilliams

one day
Garciaparra, Giambi, Guerrero, Helton, Jeter, Jones, ARodriguez

[Sopalt]

Gyb, sorry! Didn't mean to sidetrack the discussion.

[sweaver]

Originally posted by gyb13
:The consensus seems to be, roughly:

locks
Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Griffey, Henderson, Johnson, Maddux, Piazza, Sosa

near locks
Alomar, Bagwell, Canseco, Gonzalez, Larkin, McGriff, Palmeiro, Raines, IRodriguez, Thomas, Walker

maybes
Appier, Biggio, Brown, Cone, Finley, Franco, Grace, Hoffman, Kent, Lofton, EMartinez, PMartinez, Mussina, Ramirez, Rivera, Schilling, Sheffield, Smoltz, Vaughn, BWilliams, MWilliams

one day
Garciaparra, Giambi, Guerrero, Helton, Jeter, Jones, ARodriguez Thanks, gyb, I meant to do the same and hadn't had time yet.

BTW, sopalt, the thread you are looking for can be found at http://www.netshrine.com/vbulletin2/showthread.php?s=&threadid=3744&highlight=Hall+and+home+runs We cover so much Hall territory around here, it had to be somewhere.

Anyone feel strongly one way or another if these guys are on the right lists? Has anything changed drastically because of last season?

[TGwynn19]

Originally posted by sweaver
Anyone feel strongly one way or another if these guys are on the right lists? Has anything changed drastically because of last season?


For the sake of conversation let's say that the Unit's knee surgery goes completly wrong and his career is done. Is he in the HOF in 2008? I'd say he is.

[sweaver]

Chipper is now in his 10th season, and I think he's in. Same with A-Rod. Both now qualify by Hall rules, and both are at least near-locks with the voters.

I think Roberto Alomar is a lock, and that McGriff belongs on the maybe list, instead of near-locks. Biggio should be on the near-lock list, as should Pedro on the Koufax plan.

Bernie Williams should be a near-lock, but he has the broad base of talents often overlooked by the Hall in favor of more one-dimensional players.

[sweaver]

Originally posted by TGwynn19
For the sake of conversation let's say that the Unit's knee surgery goes completly wrong and his career is done. Is he in the HOF in 2008? I'd say he is. That would put him in the "lock" category. A lock is a HOF right now, even if his career ends tomorrow. A near-lock is a guy who needs to do some more, or who the voters might overlook for one reason or another.

[gyb13]

stark and neyer debate palmeiro's case
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2003/0427/1545379.html

[JamesI]

I read the debate, and just couldn't get behind Neyers point of veiw. Of course I am willing to admit I'm biased towards Palmeiro's selection.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by JamesI
I'd list Jeff Kent as "Will be Ron Santo 20 years from now, everyone says he needs to be in, but can't get elected"

This is, unfortunately, a very possible outcome for Jeff Kent, due to the lack of respect power hitting 2B have gotten in HOF balloting.

I do think that Kent has done enough, as of now, to deserve induction to the HOF, based on the last six (6) years. Very few middle infielders have put together a six year run as Kent has. (Of the shortstops, only A-Rod has; Nomar and Jeter have had their bumps in the road.)

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by gyb13
i still think that's the kinda thing that qualifies a hall-of-very-good player. either he's a HoF'er or he's not. none of this ballot stuff...

The "ballot stuff" is very relevant here.

It's true that, in the final analysis, there is no middle ground. A player is either in or out of the HOF.

HOF discussions are interesting to me, not only in evaluating whether or not a player SHOULD go into the HOF, but if a player WILL go into the HOF.

Two points I would like to make:

1. A player's failure to be elected to the HOF on the first ballot is a strong statement to the effect of a lack of consensus among the writers as to whether or not they believed the player in question was a "superstar" or a "great" player. (Ryne Sandberg, IMO, was a great player, but there is not that consensus among the observers of his time.)

2. The selection of a player in the later ballots of the B. B. W. A. A.
is a stantment of how the player's stats compare to other players in history, and other players at the player's position in the HOF.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

FuzzyBear -- I agree with your assessment.

Suppose one were to separate the Hall of Fame into three levels:

1) Those players elected by the BBWAA on the first ballot,

2) Players elected by the BBWAA on later ballots, and

3) Players selected by the Veteran's Committee, other committees, and non-players.

One could guess offhand what group a particular player fell into, and be right over 90% of the time. The difference in relative quality is that strong.

[pwdennis]

Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan
[BSuppose one were to separate the Hall of Fame into three levels:

1) Those players elected by the BBWAA on the first ballot,

2) Players elected by the BBWAA on later ballots, and

3) Players selected by the Veteran's Committee, other committees, and non-players.

One could guess offhand what group a particular player fell into, and be right over 90% of the time. The difference in relative quality is that strong. [/B]

I think that 90% is way too high. I would think Cy Young, Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Ralph Kiner,Billy Williams and Harmon Killebrew are obvious 1st ballot selections, while Lou Brock and Ozzie Smith would be seem logical candidates to wait a few ballots (Smith's most similar player, Aparico was retired over a decade before being elected, while the most similar player to Brock, Tim Raines, may never reach Cooperstown). Instead Brock and Smith slid in without a throw, and the first, far superior, group all had to wait

[Jim Rice]

Originally posted by sweaver
Anyone feel strongly one way or another if these guys are on the right lists? Has anything changed drastically because of last season?

To me, the solid bounce-back year by Pedro moved him up to near-lock. At this point, he IS Sandy Koufax. He's in his 12th year, which is all Koufax played, and has a better winning percentage, better ERA+ (by far), and will end the year with more strikeouts and more wins. I think most people would have called Koufax a "maybe" when he retired due to his lack of longevity, but now that he's set the bar by getting in, that question is removed for Pedro, making him a near-lock.

And calling Canseco a near-lock is, I hope, wishful thinking. If that guy gets elected, he'll be as controversial a selection as Tony Perez to those on this board - a guy who's election would single-handedy re-open the case for about two dozen guys who have been passed over.

[SmedIndy]

Canseco is FAR from being a near-lock.

I don't agree with Neyer. People should be blind on positional competitions when debating HOF-worthiness.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
Canseco is FAR from being a near-lock.

I now agree with this assessment. Canseco's legal problems has damaged his ability to re-enter baseball and reach 500 HRs.

More importantly, his recent difficulties have confirmed his status as a jerk, in the eyes of the writers.

On top of it all, his comments about steroid use are likely to alienate any future members of a Veterans' Committee that would consider his case.

Jose finally won a "Triple Crown".

[sweaver]

My list of current players I consider Hall-worthy, in order of accomplishment TO THIS POINT:

Barry Bonds
Rickey Henderson
Roger Clemens
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Rafael Palmiero
Frank Thomas
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Barry Larkin
Craig Biggio
Randy Johnson
John Olerud
Greg Maddux
Alex Rodriguez
Mike Piazza
Sammy Sosa

Others, like Gary Sheffield, continue to move up the list.

Now, whether the Cooperstown voters will agree with me, I don't know. But this is MY list of who belongs, not who I think will be elected.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by sweaver
My list of current players I consider Hall-worthy, in order of accomplishment TO THIS POINT:

John Olerud
Greg Maddux how do you figure olerud ahead of maddux?

[Sopalt]

Originally posted by sweaver
My list of current players I consider Hall-worthy, in order of accomplishment TO THIS POINT:

Barry Bonds
Rickey Henderson
Roger Clemens
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Rafael Palmiero
Frank Thomas
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Barry Larkin
Craig Biggio
Randy Johnson
John Olerud
Greg Maddux
Alex Rodriguez
Mike Piazza
Sammy Sosa

Others, like Gary Sheffield, continue to move up the list.

Now, whether the Cooperstown voters will agree with me, I don't know. But this is MY list of who belongs, not who I think will be elected.

Please don't take this as criticism in the least bit. I'm simply curious. Tom Glavine isn't on your list. In your opinion, what would he have to do in order to make it onto your list?

[sweaver]

Glavine has pitched mostly for good teams, and good defenses, and so his record looks better than that of other pitchers of the same ability. Glavine will be elected by the writers, but I don't think he's quite there myself.

Olerud has played in a hitter's era, but almost exclusively in pitcher's parks, and has been consistently outstanding both offensively and defensively. Maddux has been better than Glavine, but has enjoyed many of the same advantages.

Of course, it's just MY opinion.

[chainlink]

The one thing that sticks out in many of these opinions is Gary Sheffield.

If Gary Sheffield doesnt suddenly turn into Barry Bonds for a few years, I dont see how anyone can imagine seeing his name at Cooperstown.


If Gary Sheffield gets in then Jim Edmonds should be a first ballot lock.

[WiredTiger]

Originally posted by sweaver
My list of current players I consider Hall-worthy, in order of accomplishment TO THIS POINT:

Barry Bonds
Rickey Henderson
Roger Clemens
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Rafael Palmiero
Frank Thomas
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Barry Larkin
Craig Biggio
Randy Johnson
John Olerud
Greg Maddux
Alex Rodriguez
Mike Piazza
Sammy Sosa
You seem awfully tough on pitchers. Maddux and Johnson in my mind belong way up the list. And Glavine should be in the mix too.

[Sopalt]

Originally posted by sweaver
Glavine has pitched mostly for good teams, and good defenses, and so his record looks better than that of other pitchers of the same ability. Glavine will be elected by the writers, but I don't think he's quite there myself.

Olerud has played in a hitter's era, but almost exclusively in pitcher's parks, and has been consistently outstanding both offensively and defensively. Maddux has been better than Glavine, but has enjoyed many of the same advantages.

Of course, it's just MY opinion.

I'm sorry to bother you again, but perhaps you didn't understand my question. I wasn't asking you to defend or justify your opinion on Glavine. If it were up to you, what would Glavine need to do (from here till the end of his career) in order for you to deem him worthy of the HOF? 300 wins? One or two of his typical seasons, except this time playing for a non-contending team like the Mets? Another Cy Young Award?

[sweaver]

I am tougher on pitchers than the average bear, WT. I think pitching is 25% of the game. And modern pitchers throw far less innings than those who came before.

Sopalt, it's not a bother, that's what we're here for! ;) It's not so much (to me) a matter of reaching this milestone or that. With 2 Cy Youngs and 242 career victories entering this season, Glavine will certainly be elected by the BBWAA. It's more a matter of overall excellence. In all honesty, I would rank Glavine about even with Whitey Ford. But I'm not sure, if I were in charge of the HOF, that I would put Ford in either, for many of the same reasons---his teams have made him look better than he is.

Sheffield outranks Edmonds, to this point, because of Sheff's terrific offense, and more years of production. Also, remember that Edmonds is also out of the lineup for significant stretches, which limits his usefulness somewhat. Sheffield has played 1727 games, Edmonds 1155, a significant difference.

[pwdennis]

Originally posted by sweaver
In all honesty, I would rank Glavine about even with Whitey Ford. But I'm not sure, if I were in charge of the HOF, that I would put Ford in either, for many of the same reasons---his teams have made him look better than he is.

I think you are being a bit unfair to the Chairman of the Board. While I agree that his won-lost records were enhanced by the teams he played on (except for his last two years when he went a combined 4-9 with ERAs better than the league average), the fact is that Ford was a formidable pitcher, whose 2.75 unadjusted ERA is the best of any post 1920 starting pitcher whose full career is in the books

In 16 big league seasons (he missed two years due to military service) Whitey Ford never had a season in which his adjusted ERa was not better than the league average (his worst *ERA+ was 105). His adjusted ERA is 25th all time - all of the retired players above him are either deadball era or relievers ( four active starting pitchers are above him - Pedro, Maddux, Johnson, Clemens - all no doubt HOF).

Moreover, even when playing for a sub .500 1965 Yankee squad he put up a 16-13 record and for a 79-75 1959 Yankee team he was 16-10. Discounting the two season fragments at the end of his career (and he could easily have been 9-4 for the two sesons) only in 1960 when he was 12-9 did Whitey Ford not have a winning % substantually better than the team he played for. Playing for Casey Stengel, the first "modern" MLB manager in terms of platooning and use of the bullpen, Ford did not get the number of decisions that some of his contemporaries did, but he was always effective. In 1955, the year before the CY Young award was instituted, he was the best pitcher in the AL and would have been the likely AL CYA had one been given.

How much would you penalize him for the great teams he played with ? Thirty games ? That would move him from 236-106 .690 to 206-136 .606, which still looks like Cooperstown to me for the time period in which he played - way above Bunning, Drysdale, Hunter and a host of others

[Piazzadelivery]

>>If Gary Sheffield doesnt suddenly turn into Barry Bonds for a few years, I dont see how anyone can imagine seeing his name at Cooperstown.<<

If Barry Bonds is the new standard we'd have about 15 players in....for all of history

[KCBOOMER]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
Canseco is FAR from being a near-lock.

I don't agree with Neyer. People should be blind on positional competitions when debating HOF-worthiness.

10-4 that!

Pedro = Dizzy Dean. By the end of the year he will move equal and pass Koufax. Both Dean and Koufax got a pass from the BBWAA for their careers being cut short. I'm not sure about Dean but I do know that Koufax was a mythic figure in his era and continues so to this day. Pedro is not that level of figure. I can't see Pedro not getting in now unless he suddenly loses his stuff but hangs on for several years getting pounded.

Glavine is in. For him not to get in with his wins and winning percentage would be unprecedented.

[sweaver]

Originally posted by pwdennis
I think you are being a bit unfair to the Chairman of the Board. pw, are you disputing Glavine = Ford, or that one or both might not be worthy of the Hall?

Yes, I am looking into redoing my pitcher evaluations. But I haven't changed them yet.

[sweaver]

Originally posted by Piazzadelivery
[BIf Barry Bonds is the new standard we'd have about 15 players in....for all of history [/B] More like 5. But I think chainlink's point is, he doesn't see Sheffield as a Hall of Fame type, unless he steps up his production.

That may be a blind spot regarding Sheffield. He has been a consistently outstanding offensive performer for the last several years, as good as anyone NOT named Bonds.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by sweaver
modern pitchers throw far less innings than those who came before. sure, but that's part of the context of the baseball era in which they play.

comparing the two lists:locks
Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Griffey, Henderson, Johnson, Maddux, Piazza, Sosa

near locks
Alomar, Bagwell, Canseco, Gonzalez, Larkin, McGriff, Palmeiro, Raines, IRodriguez, Thomas, WalkerBonds, Henderson, Clemens, Alomar, Bagwell, Palmeiro, Thomas, Griffey, Larkin, Biggio, Johnson, Olerud, Maddux, ARodriguez, Piazza, Sosathe 'consensus' of this thread's posters would say sweav is more favorable of guys like Alomar and Bagwell, who are near the top of his list, and less favorable of guys like Griffey, Johnson, Maddux, Piazza, and Sosa, who others think are locks

[sweaver]

I didn't have Piazza? That seems odd. I'll have to recheck the list, maybe I overlooked him.

[chainlink]

What I was sayings about Sheffield is that, to me, it would take at least 3 monster seasons on top of his current numbers to make him worthy.

As far as Edmonds, I just think he has (without respect to his cummulative statistics) been a better player than Sheffield.

I think Edmonds is a great player, but not Hall of Fame material to this point. Same with Sheffield.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by sweaver
I didn't have Piazza? That seems odd. I'll have to recheck the list, maybe I overlooked him. no you do, you just have him lower on your list than the 'consensus'

[sweaver]

Anybody on my list qualifies as a "lock." Piazza, to be that high on the list at age 34, is doing very well.