Please, Alphie, take a walk!

[NetShrine]

From Rob Neyer's ESPN.com column today:

Rob,

I have been following Alfonso Soriano's stats this season, and I've noticed that he has a higher batting average than on-base percentage. I was wondering how this could happen (I obviously am too lazy to look up the exact definition of OBP), and how you think this bodes for his progress this season. I realize he has done pretty well with the bat and has changed the makeup of the Yankees by being a threat on the basepaths, but I imagine his lack of being able to take a walk will eventually take its toll on his batting average.

Keep up the good work, and how about a column on why no one in the Cubs management seems to give Julio Zuleta any respect?

George Plackmann Chicago, IL

I get the OBP question every couple of years. Yes, it's possible to have a higher batting average than on-base percentage, because sacrifice flies count as plate appearances when computing OBP, but they don't count as at-bats when computing batting average.

On a practical level, that means that if you have more sacrifice flies than walks+HBP, your OBP will be lower than your batting average. And that's exactly what we see with Soriano, who's got one SF and zero BB.

As for Soriano's future, far be it from this humble columnist to question the prospects of a Yankee who's already been widely anointed as the American League's non-Japanese 2001 Rookie of the Year. Still, I look at Soriano's career totals -- 116 at-bats and one walk (and 30 strikeouts) -- and I can't help but think that maybe, just maybe, the pitchers will realize that they don't have to throw the ball anywhere near the plate.

One walk in 116 ABs! Is it possible that Soriano will go the whole season and end up with 5 BB - - - that would be sick!

[BuzzBuzzard]

How would this compare to Luis Castillo's 17 rbi last year in 539 ABs? He put up big numbers last year in every other category. He just couldn't get them across.

He's off to a hot start this year (3 rbi).

[NetShrine]

Still wish they would use RBI% instead of RBI totals......but, that's just me.

[ChrisCary]

Soriano's young, as soon as he gets on board the Yankees patient at the plate approach this guys gonna be hell on fire, if he doesn't learn patience against these major league pitchers, he may strike himself out of the league.
I'm guessing the former will prove true

[NetShrine]

You're guessing - I'm hoping............

[nyy26wc]

Unfortunately, there is nothing in Soriano's track record that would indicate he's going to learn plate discpline.

But, I'm also still hoping.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by nyy26wc
Unfortunately, there is nothing in Soriano's track record that would indicate he's going to learn plate discpline.

Nor is there anything in the record of most of his island mates. Thou shalt not pass in the DR. You can't walk off the island.

[ChrisCary]

He has no major league history.
Patience at the plate can be easily tought and he has some of the best teachers in the world on that team.
His biggest value on his team is on the basepaths, he'll be mad to understand that.

[NetShrine]

In 1999, while at AA, he did have 32 BB in 89 games. If he could do that at the big league level, say 50-60 BB in 150+ games, the chances of him becoming a star greatly increase.

Of course, there's also a big difference between AA and big league pitchers............

[ChrisCary]

There is a big difference, but already you can see pitchers keeping tha bal out of reach and Alfonso offering at about anything they throw.
I went to the bathroom last night and I come back my wife tells me that Alfonso's aving a good at bat, he's fouled of about three in a row with a full count.

How many would have been ball four honey?

"All of them"

Chuck gets hit by a pitch last night and ends up at third a moment later.
THis is the way Yankees play ball.

Walking Soriano is almost "ball four, take third"

He must get on base by any means necessary.
THe best hitters only do it 3 of ten times, he has to get on base more often than that.

[mainsr]

Let me go back a couple posts - Chris, you said "plate discipline can be easily taught."

OK, name a few. Gary Sheffield pumped up his walk rate for good in 1996, but I really doubt it was anything but self-taught. Other guys with great plate discipline - Knoblauch, Henderson, Thomas, Bonds - have always drawn a lot of walks. Other guys - Derek Bell, Benny Santiago, Hal Morris - have never drawn walks. I can't think of anyone who came up unable to draw a walk who learned how to at the major league level - possible exception being Albert (back when he was Joey) Belle.

This doesn't mean that Soriano won't have a long career. If you can hit for an average, you can stay in the majors, particularly if you're a middle infielder with a glove. Tony Gwynn drew more than 59 walks only once in his career.

If Soriano doesn't learn how to walk, though - and I think he won't - he will probably spend his career being vastly overrated.

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by ChrisCary
He must get on base by any means necessary.
THe best hitters only do it 3 of ten times, he has to get on base more often than that.

No.

Getting on base 3 out of 10 points is a .300 OBA. That describes the WORST players.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by mainsr
Let me go back a couple posts - Chris, you said "plate discipline can be easily taught."

OK, name a few.

Allow me to offer two:

Tony Fernandez, in 1999, at age 37, went from a guy who rarely had an OBA over .340, to a guy who had an OBA of .427 (due to 77 BB - when he was usually only good for 40-50 BB a year).


Tony Phillips, in his 1st eight big league seasons, usually had an OBA near .330 - - then, at age 31, he went from a guy who was usually good for 50 BB a year to 100+ a year.

Granted, Soriano is neither a .340 OBA or 50 BB guy now - - - but, the others do show that you can improve.

Personally, Soriano reminds me of Shawon Dunston (Zimmer says this too). Sadly, Shawon never learned the value of a walk..........

[nyy26wc]

Fernandez was a single fluke season. Every year, there are countless players who have fluke good or bad years.

Phillips was an exception to the general rule. They exist, but they are rare.

There are some players who do improve, but they usually show gradual signs of improvement, often dating back to the minor league days.

Soriano has shown so such improvement.

Also, I am about 45 minutes away from Yankee Stadium. I feel like if I was a throw a ball for my dog to fetch, Soriano would think it was close enough to home plate for him to swing at it.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by nyy26wc
Also, I am about 45 minutes away from Yankee Stadium. I feel like if I was a throw a ball for my dog to fetch, Soriano would think it was close enough to home plate for him to swing at it.

Good one Lee :loud:

Ya' know, there once was a Yankee that swung @ everything, usually only walked about twice a week - - but, he was only an All-Star 15 years in a row...........

.........Lawrence Peter something......... :tongue2:

............OK, granted, he was also good for a lifetime RC/27 about 1.6 runs above average..........and he said a lot of funny things........again, still, 50 BB a year is a lot more than the 5-12 a year Soriano is on pace for. Still not looking good for Sori.

[nyy26wc]

It helped that Lawrence was able to hit some :homer:s.

This isn't that good of a response, but I just wanted an excuse to use the Homer icon.

[NetShrine]

Excellent usage Lee! Kudos. It will be copied, here out, for sure.

[NetShrine]

For the record, the AL mark for fewest BB (500 AB+) in a season is 6 - - George Stovall, set in 1909.

NL mark is 9 - Virgil Stallcup in 1949.

Soriano, at this point is 0 BB/82 ABs, I believe............

[nyy26wc]

Your numbers are correct.

Also, in the next week, I will be introducing a new feature on my website. I'm going to have a complete daily staistical report, with lots of sabermetric stats.

[mainsr]

We're at an interesting point in baseball's evolution - the sabermetric stuff that many of us read in Bill James' Baseball Abstracts is finally being put into use, 15+ years later. Some teams - the Yankees and the A's, to name two - understand the importance of OBP. (Empirical studies have shown OBP to be the ONE offensive statistic that is best correlated to run production.) Other clubs don't have a clue; that's why Tony Womack leads off for the Snakes and Cam Bonifay figures he got a steal when nobody else was bidding on Derek Bell and Pat Meares. I give Soriano two years to draw at least 50 walks. If he doesn't, he gets traded to Pittsburgh for Brian Giles (or to Detroit for Gabe Kapler, or to the Angels for Troy Glaus, or the Expos for Vlad Guerrero, to name 3 other organizations that don't understand the value of walks), where he'll be put into the leadoff spot and everyone will scratch their head over why he doesn't score 100 runs.

[NetShrine]

That's why I think it's cool that Rusty Greer is batting lead off for Texas - - maybe it will start a trend?

'Tho, Boggs was an OBA machine, and slow, and he didn't lead the way to OBP over speed at the one slot.

[mainsr]

The Angels used to have Brian Dowling lead off. That's an OBP-over-speed move. It also predates Disney and Mickey Hatcher as batting coach.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by NetShrine


Allow me to offer two:

Tony Fernandez, .........


Tony Phillips, ...........


After how many seasons in the majors did it take for these guys to be sefl-taught? The point I am trying to make is that in even these rare occurences it takes a lot of maturity for players to teach themselves any sort of plate discipline if it is not part of their early career make up.

[NetShrine]

Alright, there's no hope for this Soriano guy. Should we have him killed? :smash:

[BuzzBuzzard]

It aint hopeless, but just don't assume it to be a given (see also; Ordonez, Rey)

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by NetShrine


Tony Phillips, in his 1st eight big league seasons, usually had an OBA near .330 - - then, at age 31, he went from a guy who was usually good for 50 BB a year to 100+ a year.



I've taken another look at Phillips's career. The idea that he just learned strikezone judgement at the age of 31, in the 1990 season, is a myth.

Phillips was good at drawing walks before that. Phillips was averaging 11.37 BB/100 PA before that time. That's a rate of 34% above average.

Then, 2 things happened--

1) Phillips's batting average improved, which led to his OBA improving and people starting to notice him more.

2) His walking skills, which were very good before, got even better. In this respect, he was similar to Sosa. It would be a myth to say Sosa just became a power hitter in 1998. Prior to then, he wasn't the power hitter he's been since then, but he had a almost entirely constant record of being a good power hitter before then. That's also what was happening with Phillips.

[mainsr]

It would seem to me that if a guy makes the majors when he's 23, can't take a walk, and then starts getting BB's at 27, he's been coached. When it happens at 31, he's done a good self-assessment and taken matters into his own hands (like Sheffield).

[BuzzBuzzard]

I happened to flip to the Yankee game yesterday right as Soriano got his first big league walk. Props to Soriano and the big smile he had on his face when he got down to 1st. It was fun to watch. The stadium crowd that knew what was going on gave him a big, lasting cheer and even the Yanks hitting coach made it up to the top step to clap.