2003 Marlins Juiced?

[Crash Course]

Look at some of the HR totals for some of the players on that team that season - then see how they did last year, once testing began. Did Pudge get them on the juice?

[captain_napalm]

Look at some of the HR totals for some of the players on that team that season - then see how they did last year, once testing began. Did Pudge get them on the juice?


YEAR HR HR% RBI BB SO
2000 160 2.90 691 540 1184
2001 166 3.00 713 470 1145
2002 146 2.66 653 595 1130
2003 157 2.86 709 515 978
2004 148 2.70 677 499 968

[Crash Course]

And, what about 2005?

[captain_napalm]

And, what about 2005?

128...

So how do you explain 1999-2000 or 2001-2002?

[Crash Course]

Doesn't matter.
I'm looking at guys like Lowell, Pudge, and Alex Gonzalez, 2003 vs. 2005. The numbers are shocking.

[captain_napalm]

Doesn't matter.
I'm looking at guys like Lowell, Pudge, and Alex Gonzalez, 2003 vs. 2005. The numbers are shocking.

:confuse:

Am I missing something? 1999-2005

Lowell: 12 -> 22 -> 18 -> 24 -> 32 -> 27 -> 8

Pudge: 27 -> 25 -> 19 -> 19 -> 16 -> 19 -> 14

A Gon: 14 -> 7 -> 9 -> 2 -> 18 -> 23 -> 5

How do you explain Wade Boggs' 8 -> 24 -> 5 (1986-88?)

Davey Johnson's 5 -> 43 -> 15 (1972-74)

Bob Hamelin 24 -> 7 -> 9 (1994-96)

[Crash Course]

Did Boggs, Johnson, and Hamelin all play for the same team? Did they spike when a suspected juicer joined their team? Did they drop the year after dope testing?

[captain_napalm]

No, but if you look around, you can find 3 year (or more) spans where numbers fluctuate. If it happened before dope testing, why wouldn't it happen after dope testing?

So, was Lowell off the juice when he faced righties?

What about Jeff Cirillo? He's seemingly lost his way; was he on the juice? Howard Johnson?

Was Tino juicing in 1997? Was Mattingly juicing? He never showed power in the minors.

[KCBOOMER]

This is silly. There has been no evidence presented that the Marlins were using juice so why bring it up?? For that matter nothing has been presented against Pudge other than speculation.

[Crash Course]

I dunno, Canseco has been pretty good so far - in terms of people named in his book proving to be true.

[Jayhawk Bob]

A similar argument could be made about the '04 Yankees. They have a couple of known/heavily suspected juicers on the team, and in the first year of penalties for positive testing they saw significant SLG drops in 7 of the 10 position players who returned in '05. (Posada - 51 pts, Jeter - 21 pts, Matsui - 26 pts, Williams - 68 pts, Sheffield - 22 pts, Sierra - 85 pts, Flaherty - 213 pts)

Or how about the '04 Giants? They had perhaps the most highly suspected juicer alive, and saw large SLG drops in all 9 of the position players with more than a handful at ABs who returned in '05. (Snow - 164 pts, Durham - 55 pts, Alfonzo - 23 pts, Deivi Cruz - 34 pts, Bonds - 145 pts, Grissom - 165 pts, Tucker - 40 pts, Feliz - 63 pts, Torrealba - 63 pts)

Now, I don't believe for a minute that there was widespread juicing on the 2004 New York Yankees or San Francisco Giants, but as long as we're throwing around reckless speculation, let's be comprehensive.

[Crash Course]

Is a 20 point drop in SLG% the same as going from 23 HRs to 5?

[captain_napalm]

Is a 20 point drop in SLG% the same as going from 23 HRs to 5?
I would think more so.

[Jayhawk Bob]

Is a 20 point drop in SLG% the same as going from 23 HRs to 5?

Of course not, but that's a comparison of the largest difference in your measurement with the smallest difference in mine. Not exactly apples-to-apples, now is it?

Apples-to-apples would be this: Of the Marlins from '03 who were still on the club in '05 and dropped in SLG, the average drop in their slugging percentage was 67 points. The Yankees who dropped from '04 to '05 had an average drop of 69 points, and the Giants' average drop was 84 points.

Or how about this: The Marlins' team SLG dropped just 12 points from '03 to '05. In the same time period, nearly half the clubs in baseball - 13 to be exact - had larger drops in their team SLG, some by over 40 points.

Were all of those clubs juiced en masse? I don't think so, and I fail to see anything out of the ordinary in the Marlins' performance.

[Crash Course]

FYI, I decided to do an essay on this one

http://www.netshrine.com/2003Marlins.html

[Jayhawk Bob]

FYI, I decided to do an essay on this one

http://www.netshrine.com/2003Marlins.html

So your theory is this - Three guys become teammates of a suspected steroid user, see their homer numbers go up upon his arrival, and see those numbers drop in the first year of penalties for steroid use. Ergo, they are suspected of using steroids themselves.

Pretty flimsy. And there's one obvious hole in the real evidence as well - Juan Pierre's power numbers didn't drop in 2005. His Isolated Power was up over '03-'04 and so was his HR/AB ratio.

That's also a scenario I could apply just as truthfully to the Yankees. Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and Alfonso Soriano all saw their HR/AB ratios go up in 2002, the year Jason Giambi joined the Yankees. Posada and Soriano saw those ratios fall in '05 (in Soriano's case, even though he is now in homer-friendly Arlington). Jeter's rate didn't drop in '05, but neither did Pierre's.

Equally flimsy, but equally true. I anxiously await your essay on how Jason Giambi got his Yankee teammates hooked on the juice.

[Crash Course]

I would bet (to quote Pete Rose) that if I did a piece with Giambi playing that role, no one would be as against it as they are this one.

You gotta take this one with a grain. As I posted over at Will Carroll today

http://thejuice.baseballtoaster.com/archives/292826.html

Will, all I'm doing in the piece is asking the question if it's possible. I'm not claiming anything and clearly state that I have no evidence on which the question is based. As I wrote in the piece "This is an interesting question – but, that's all that it is."

Is it wrong to even wonder, albeit out loud?

I thought it was OK to wonder, no?

[Jayhawk Bob]

It would be okay if the Marlin experience was unique, but it's not. I picked the Yankees because of Giambi and found the exact same scenario. If I picked the Giants because of Bonds, I would probably find a similar pattern. Or any other team with a suspected or known steroid user - the Palmeiro Orioles or Rangers, McGwire-era Cardinals, any Canseco team, Sosa's Cubs, maybe even Lawton's Twins or Indians. If all of those teams don't have a similar pattern, maybe the Marlins are news. Prove that and I'll pay more attention.

[Crash Course]

Do any of those teams have the same pattern? I'm asking - because I do not know.

But, if one of those teams played in a pitchers park, and they have at least 3 players whose power production jumped in 2003, and then carried over into 2004, and then dropped like a stone in 2005, well, then I would do a retraction on my question of whether or not it's possible that something was going on in the Marlins front.

Anyone willing to come up with the match?

[Crash Course]

FWIW, here's an interesting line from the Hartford Courant today:

Lowell did not produce last season with the Marlins. It's safe to say the majority of folks in the Miami area didn't care that he hit .236 - 41 points below his career average going into 2005 - or that his power numbers dropped drastically. He hit eight homers and drove in 58 runs, after averaging 25 homers and 95 RBI in 2000-04.

Some assumed the dip in productivity was related to the steroids ban. The Marlins insisted that wasn't the case, and the Red Sox undoubtedly checked it out the best they could.

Lowell attributed his down year to overanalyzing an early slump and constantly tinkering with his swing. He hit .198 in April and his average peaked at .245.

http://www.courant.com/sports/hc-redsox1126.artnov26,0,4638121.story?coll=hc-headlines-sports

[captain_napalm]

I would bet (to quote Pete Rose) that if I did a piece with Giambi playing that role, no one would be as against it as they are this one.

You gotta take this one with a grain. As I posted over at Will Carroll today

http://thejuice.baseballtoaster.com/archives/292826.html

I thought it was OK to wonder, no?

I've taken a pretty consistent line WRT the steroid issue, so I'd be against that one as well.

It's ok for you to wonder and it's ok for us to dispute your take.

Having said that, (I'm working on the assumption that Carroll is a respected writer) when I read "Steve has written one of the most outrageous, factually deprived, baseless and purposeless articles I've seen recently, even in the usually outrageous and baseless world of steroids" from Will Carroll, I have to wonder. Grain or salt or no, this is your credibility we're talking here.

I've heard enough crap about the steroid issue than I can stand. I expect to find a piece like the one you written in the local rags (I'm sure you know my take on sportswriters by now), not here. It may not mean much, but I hold you guys here to a higher standard than I do the local dailies, or even the guys I talk baseball with at the bar. I don't expect Roger Angell, but I don't want to get Dan Shaughnessy-esque writing either.

Will is right, you can do better.

[Jayhawk Bob]

Do any of those teams have the same pattern? I'm asking - because I do not know.

But, if one of those teams played in a pitchers park, and they have at least 3 players whose power production jumped in 2003, and then carried over into 2004, and then dropped like a stone in 2005, well, then I would do a retraction on my question of whether or not it's possible that something was going on in the Marlins front.

Anyone willing to come up with the match?

Two things:

1. I already did part of that; see the Giambi-era Yankees.

2. What you're asking is akin to Mark Beuhrle asking the Rangers to prove they didn't steal signs in Arlington, rather than forcing him to offer real proof of his otherwise baseless assertion that they are cheating. Nothing personal, but do your own leg work. It's your assertion that the Marlins' power "jump" and later "decline" were out of the ordinary and somewhat suspicious. If you're going to assert that, do the work that supports the assertion. Don't ask others to disprove an assertion which they don't feel has been proved in the first place.

[Jayhawk Bob]

...But, if one of those teams played in a pitchers park, and they have at least 3 players whose power production jumped in 2003, and then carried over into 2004, and then dropped like a stone in 2005, well, then I would do a retraction on my question of whether or not it's possible that something was going on in the Marlins front...

FWIW, you're completely ignoring the fact that one of your three suspect Marlins doesn't fit your own criteria. Juan Pierre's power numbers did not drop in 2005, like a rock or anything else. As previously stated, his ISO and HR/AB went up. Up is not down, it's up. Unless Pierre has learned how to defy gravity, he cannot drop while going up.

[nyy26wc]

The whole history of baseball is filled with teams that win championships with their players having fluke years.

So, the 2003 Marlins fit that pattern.

And, if the 2003 Marlins were juiced, then obviously they would liked the results, so why didn't they remain juiced in 2004?

[Crash Course]

FWIW, I thnk they might have.
The drop off in the hitters mentioned did not happen until 2005.

[Crash Course]

FWIW, you're completely ignoring the fact that one of your three suspect Marlins doesn't fit your own criteria. Juan Pierre's power numbers did not drop in 2005, like a rock or anything else. As previously stated, his ISO and HR/AB went up. Up is not down, it's up. Unless Pierre has learned how to defy gravity, he cannot drop while going up.

His "production" dropped. His RCAA were positive in 2003 and 2004 - and then tanked in 2005 , like it was before 2003 and 2004.

HR and ISO mean nothing when the player is not a power hitter in the 1st place.

[Crash Course]

Will is right, you can do better.

I've already replied to Will on that on his site.

[Crash Course]

Two things:

1. I already did part of that; see the Giambi-era Yankees.

Did someone on the Yankees have the drops like the players on the Marlins did? I don't think so.

[Jayhawk Bob]

Did someone on the Yankees have the drops like the players on the Marlins did? I don't think so.

You don't think so, but you don't know, and that's my point. You have chosen one isolated case involving three players, one of whom, Pierre, you have already had to qualify to explain why his failure to drop off in power numbers isn't really inconsistent with your juicing specualtion. You've done no legwork to investigate whether the drop was out of the ordinary, you haven't investigated the individual players themselves to determine if other causes were at play, you haven't explained why other Marlins didn't have similar drops, and you haven't explained similar performance fluctuations on other teams. You've just thrown out specualtion that could smear the reputations of three players for no good reason, and then blamed Major League Baseball for creating the landscape that allows you to smear them.

Sure, you have a right to think it and speculate about those thoughts. I choose to exercise my right to label that speculation as grossly irresponsible and unfair to the players in question.

[Crash Course]

Sounds like a fair trade to me.