MVPs 2005

[Crash Course]

Who would you pick in each league?

[RedSeat]

My MVP's (not players of the year) are Vlad and Derrek Lee.

[KCBOOMER]

These are tough choices. Right this minute I will select ARod and Derrick Lee, but I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the year I switch to Jason Giambi and Albert Pujols. ARod's defensive value will probably keep him ahead of Giambi and when push comes to shove I don't know that I would vote for Giambi anyway. Derrick Lee is really fading and is going to have to do something to hang on.

[Makofan]

A-Rod and .. hmm... Lee by a nose over Pujols. I could be convinced otherwise

[Jayhawk Bob]

Too close to call for me in the AL, between ARod, Vlad and Papi. Probably in that order right now, but a big push by any in the final three weeks (a la Vlad last year) would tip the scales. I wouldn't even consider Giambi. He was hideously bad the first two months of the year and early season games count too.

In the NL, one of these years they have to give it to Albert Pujols, and since he is currently the best player on the best team, I'd vote for him.

[Deep Blue]

Pains me to say it (and I was in a disagreement with one of my best friends and my bartender about this tonight, and had my Mai Tai pulled away from me briefly) I would vote for A-Rod over Papi if the season ended today, with a crowd including Brian Roberts, Vlad, Hafner, Tejada, Manny, Konerko, and others after that. Too close to call now, and either of them (and probably Vlad, and maybe even Hafner given his team's position) could seal the deal over the next couple of weeks.

In the NL, Pujols over Lee, with a cast of thousands in third who cannot (or at least should not, in my opinion, win).

[RascalJones]

AL - A-Rod followed by Vlad & Giambi
NL - Andruw Jones followed by Pujols & Lee. At the beginning of the year who would have predicted that ANYONE would hit 50 HR this year? Not to mention, the Braves would be in third at best without him.

[nyy26wc]

AL - A-Rod followed by Vlad & Giambi
NL - Andruw Jones followed by Pujols & Lee. At the beginning of the year who would have predicted that ANYONE would hit 50 HR this year? Not to mention, the Braves would be in third at best without him.

Andruw Jones might not even be the MVBNJ.

He might not even be the Most Valuable Brave Named Jones.


BRAVES RCAA
Chipper Jones 30
Andruw Jones 30

[Jayhawk Bob]

Andruw Jones might not even be the MVBNJ.

He might not even be the Most Valuable Brave Named Jones.


BRAVES RCAA
Chipper Jones 30
Andruw Jones 30

I wouldn't vote for Andruw Jones for MVP, but if my center fielder is matching my third baseman's offensive production, and is likely to win a Gold Glove in the process, I'd take the center fielder every time.

[Makofan]

Defense does not exist in Lee's world! (not a slam at you Lee, more just an observation of one of your quirks - I have many myself)

[Sidewinder]

Pujols and A-Rod, but I have a feeling A. Jones is going to win in the NL

[mainsr]

Andruw Jones might not even be the MVBNJ.

He might not even be the Most Valuable Brave Named Jones.


BRAVES RCAA
Chipper Jones 30
Andruw Jones 30

Rob Neyer has a column dated 9/14 that starts like this:

"Before we really get going today, I'd like to present a couple of lists. The first, courtesy of the amazing Lee Sinins, presents the top 10 National League hitters in Runs Created Above Average, which is essentially what it sounds like (absent clutch hitting): "
(emphasis mine)

Neyer goes on to list the top 10 in RCAA then the top 10 in OBP. A. Jones is nowhere to be found on either list.

I agree with Lee, not just because he's amazing! As for defense, Win Shares, which does incorporate fielding, rates Pujols just ahead of Lee (34-33). Andruw Jones is 20th, behind, among others, Furcal and Giles. Jones will win, but he's a lousy choice. Not Andre Dawson or Sammy Sosa lousy, but lousy. I'd give Lee the nod over Pujols at this point, but it's awfully close still.

In the AL, I think Rodriquez is the man to beat.

[mainsr]

I wouldn't vote for Andruw Jones for MVP, but if my center fielder is matching my third baseman's offensive production, and is likely to win a Gold Glove in the process, I'd take the center fielder every time.

Neyer also makes a case that Jones has become an overrated outfielder. On the Braves, he's fourth in fielding win shares: Furcal, Giles (who has more batting win shares as well), Estrada, then Andruw (who's way ahead of Chipper). He's fifth among NL OFs: Clark, Taveras, Beltran, Edmonds, then Andruw.

[hopbitters]

As for defense, Win Shares, which does incorporate fielding, rates Pujols just ahead of Lee (34-33). Andruw Jones is 20th, behind, among others, Furcal and Giles. Jones will win, but he's a lousy choice.

I can't remember where, but I recall reading that Jones' poor (relatively) Win Shares are primarily due to hitting poorly w/RISP - not an attribute I'd like in my MVP. He does hit well late/with the game on the line, though. In any case, I'll take Pujols on the grounds that wife would smack me for not picking the Cardinal, though I'd probably take him anyway.

[mainsr]

I can't remember where, but I recall reading that Jones' poor (relatively) Win Shares are primarily due to hitting poorly w/RISP - not an attribute I'd like in my MVP. He does hit well late/with the game on the line, though. In any case, I'll take Pujols on the grounds that wife would smack me for not picking the Cardinal, though I'd probably take him anyway.

I wouldn't argue with Pujols. I would with Lee.

I don't recall that Win Shares incorporates batting w/RISP, but my memory's shot anyway. Other good reasons not to vote for Andruw, not that anybody from the BBWAA is listening:
The most important offensive stat is OBP. He ranks 32 in the NL, behind worthies such as Craig Counsell and Shawn Green.
I don't know where he ranks in RCAA (they don't let me install my Sabermetric Encyclopedia at work), but he's not in the top 10.
If you believe in Win Shares, the Braves are indeed a third-place team without him (but only a game out of first). But they're second-to-last without Giles. Without Lee, the Cubs fall from almost .500 to the fifth-worst team in baseball. (This becomes a silly exercise anyway. If the season ended last night, you could make a good argument that without Mike Timlin, the Red Sox wouldn't be in the postseason. But so what?)
He is 3-for-6 as a basestealer, a net negative. Lee is 15-for-18 and Pujols 15-for-17, both net positives.

[hopbitters]

I don't think the Bill James Win Shares incorporate batting w/RISP, but THT uses a formula that does. Now that you mention it, I have no idea which formula is the more prevalent one today, so my point could be totally, well, pointless. Most of them are. What was I talking about? Oh yes, he doesn't hit with RISP. That's a problem, or it would be if I were voting, anyway.

[RascalJones]

I wouldn't argue with Pujols. I would with Lee.

I don't recall that Win Shares incorporates batting w/RISP, but my memory's shot anyway. Other good reasons not to vote for Andruw, not that anybody from the BBWAA is listening:
The most important offensive stat is OBP. He ranks 32 in the NL, behind worthies such as Craig Counsell and Shawn Green.
I don't know where he ranks in RCAA (they don't let me install my Sabermetric Encyclopedia at work), but he's not in the top 10.
If you believe in Win Shares, the Braves are indeed a third-place team without him (but only a game out of first). But they're second-to-last without Giles. Without Lee, the Cubs fall from almost .500 to the fifth-worst team in baseball. (This becomes a silly exercise anyway. If the season ended last night, you could make a good argument that without Mike Timlin, the Red Sox wouldn't be in the postseason. But so what?)
He is 3-for-6 as a basestealer, a net negative. Lee is 15-for-18 and Pujols 15-for-17, both net positives.


All those numbers don't mean a thing to the media clones that vote for the award.

[mainsr]

I watch Baseball Tonight and listen to XM. I know.

[mainsr]

I wouldn't argue with Pujols. I would with Lee.


I meant Jones instead of Lee, obviously, since I said earlier that Lee's my MVP pick at this point.

[captain_napalm]

All those numbers don't mean a thing to the media clones that vote for the award.

clones or clowns? :D

[phanatic06]

AL- Vlad


NL- D Lee

[mainsr]

AL- Vlad


NL- D Lee

That's five here for Lee. How much you want to bet he gets no first-place votes from the BBWAA, who look a this as a two-horse race between Pujols and A Jones?

We're smarter.

[RedSeat]

That's five here for Lee. How much you want to bet he gets no first-place votes from the BBWAA, who look a this as a two-horse race between Pujols and A Jones?

We're smarter.
I agree with the votes for Lee, but I don't like to make judgements about whose vote is right or wrong, because the award is somewhat ambiguous. I try to to consider the MVP as the player who made the most difference in his team's final standings. That's why Vlad is my MVP, but A-Rod is my player of the year. (Without A-Rod, the Yankees would probably still be in the playoff mix. Without Vlad, are the Angels .500?) I give somewhat more consideration to playoff teams, but don't make it a requirement obviously, as Lee is my choice.

That's just what I consider the Most Valuable Player to be. But I have no idea if that's right or not.

[Deep Blue]

Without A-Rod, the Yankees would probably still be in the playoff mix. Without Vlad, are the Angels .500?

Not to nit-pick, and God forgive me for defending A-Rod, but I think you may feel that way, but it is not backed up in reality. Given how they are barely hanging in the playoff race now, and given how many more runs A-Rod has helped create during the season, and given who the backup third baseman for the Yankees is - I think you are wrong. Perhaps as a "name", Vlad stands out more from the rest of his team than A-Rod does, but in terms of who has contributed the most to his team offense and defense, I think your case is not particularly defensible.

ARod has done more for his team, and his team has actually needed his contributions more. He would have my vote if the season ended today.

I need to go take a shower now, or at least go to confession.....

[RedSeat]

Perhaps as a "name", Vlad stands out more from the rest of his team than A-Rod does, but in terms of who has contributed the most to his team offense and defense, I think your case is not particularly defensible.
Look at RCAA. On the Angels, take away Vlad (46) and your leaders are Figgins and Kennedy with 7 apiece. Kotchman has 3 and that's it for positive contributors. Yes, A-Rod has had the better overall year, but the offense still has Giambi (47), Sheffield (33), Matsui (20), and Jeter (19).

You may be right, but I certainly think it's a defensible position to say that Vlad is more valuable to LAA than A-Rod is to NY.

And if we're nit-picking, I don't think it's accurate to say NY is "barely hanging in the playoff race". I'd consider them right in the playoff race. Without A-Rod, I imagine they'd be a few games back and possibly out of contention. But at the same time, without Vlad, I'd say the angels would have been long since out of the running.

[Deep Blue]

I did exaggerate the Yamkees situation regarding the playoff race (sorry about that) - but wouldn't you trade their position for the Angels ? Given that the Angels are currently 2 games ahead of the Athletics, and the Yankees trail both Boston and Cleveland today.... I think if you were to knock both players off their teams, replace them with whoever is next at their position (some infielder for the Yankees, and some outfielder for the Angels), knock a few wins (say 4) from each team's total - the Angels have a lot better chance to get into the playoffs than the Yankees do.

Vlad is defensible, but I think it's a pretty weak defense. By the argument of comparing him to the rest of his team - look at Paul Konerko, who has 28 RCAA on a team with a net total of -35 RCAA. How important is he to that offense proportionately ? Or Joe Mauer (+15 RCAA) on the Twins (-92 RCAA) ?

If you look at RCAA (which ignores their positons, and their defensive contributions), 70 RCAA is a lot more than 46 RCAA - probably 3 wins more. If you look at Win Shares, Rodriguez has a substantial lead (31-24). As much as I would prefer to vote for Vlad over Guerrero, I don't buy the case. I can't even put Vlad 2nd. I have in a scrum with Tejada and Roberts and Sheffield (blech) and Manny and even Mariano and Teixera.

Besides, I expect Papi to hit 4 more game winning homers over the next two weeks, carry the Red Sox to the division title, and garner MVP trhough acclamation ! :D

[PianoMonkey]

Just to clarify the significance of win shares in my mind: when somebody says something akin to "According to Win Shares, without player X, team Y would be 3 games back in the race," are they using raw win shares and subtracting them from the team total, or are they subtracting the difference between player X's WS and league average (or his replacement's est. WS) from the team total?

Basically, I'm asking if WS is already rated against the mean player or not. Or does WSAA make sense?

[Deep Blue]

Hardball Times (www.hardballtimes.com) calculates a WSAB which IIRC is measured against an average bench player. Base WS is just an accumulative number, starting at 0. They have Rodriguez at 19 WSAB, Guerrero at 14.

[Crash Course]

Albert Pujols gets the NL MVP. But, was he clutch? j/k

[KCBOOMER]

It was nice to see the writer's pick Pujols. He and Lee were the cream of the league this years. Sadly they totally ignored Lee in the balloting. Of the 32 writers 18 first place votes to Pujols and 13 to Jones. Considering Jones wasn't even close to being one of the ten best players in the league that vote is embarassingly close.