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Crash Course
10-14-2004, 12:48 AM
In the bottom of the 6th inning of Game 2 of the 2004 ALCS, on Pedro Martinez's 106th pitch of the evening (according to my rough count) he served up a 2-run HR to the Yankee's John Olerud.

The blast made the score in the game 3-0; and, the Yankees had the breathing room needed to go on and win the game, 3-1 (and take a 2-0 lead in the ALCS).

While watching the game, I noticed that the Yankees were really making Pedro elevate his pitch count in a hurry. He had thrown 45 pitches (again, by my rough count) by the end of the 2nd inning. The Yankees took pitches like a boxer would take body blows. And, as many of those "takes" seemed to be called third strikes, some of them really were body blows.

As I was watching this unfold, I thought back to Alan Schwarz' great book, The Numbers Game. I knew there was a mention in there about Pedro in 2003, his pitch count limit, and Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.

Looking at the book now, I can tell you that it's on pages 247 to 248. Basically, the book says that the data in 2003 clearly showed that Pedro hits a wall around 105 pitches. This was a fact that got Grady Little fired after the ALCS - as Sox G.M. Theo Epstein warned him about leaving Pedro in too long. According to the book, Theo stewed over this for a month after the game, later blaming himself for not making it clear to Little that the front office did not want Pedro going deep into a pitch count, beyond 105 pitches. (IIRC, Pedro threw about 119 pitches in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.)

The Sox have done a better job with Pedro this year. If you look at the data on ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=4875&type=pitching&year=2004) for this year, coming into Game 2 of the 2004 ALCS, Pedro was only allowed to face 43 batters all season after reaching 105 pitches in a game.

So, that brings us back to pitch # 106 in Game 2 of the 2004 ALCS for Pedro. Why was Martinez allowed to throw it? How many times must the Red Sox allow Pedro to cross that line in a big spot before they realize that he cannot cross it in a situation like that without great risk? And, how long will it take Theo this year to realize that he needs to do a better job at communicating with his field manager in terms of what to do at Pedro's wall?

Then again, maybe it was only pitch # 104 and I just lost count - and this is all moot. If anyone knows the exact pitch number of the Olerud HR, please do share it here with us. Thanks in advance!

Crash Course
10-14-2004, 10:42 AM
Add on: Confirmed!
Last night, early this AM, actually, around 1 AM, I heard Cindy Brunson on ESPN News say that the Olerud HR was on pitch # 106 for Pedro.

Nice to know that I can still count!

guidry49
10-14-2004, 10:50 AM
are you implying that Pedro should have been yanked after walking Posada? for who? Alan Embree?

Pedro was still pitching in the mid 90's in the 6th inning- he was up 1-2 on Olerud, and made a bad pitch. Its easy to second guess the day after. 100, 105, 110 pitches is a moot point- he was close to dominant after the Sheffield hit in the first inning. Much different situation than game 7. The home run wiped the slate clean- the damamge is already done....I guarantee that if Olerud singles instead- Pedro comes out.

Crash Course
10-14-2004, 12:26 PM
Well, again, the data from 2003 suggests that Pedro should come out around 105 pitches - and the data from 2004 suggests that the Sox understand this.........so, yes, I think Pedro should have been removed before facing Olerud in that spot.

As it was, the Sox needed the pen to get the last 9 outs of the game. If Pedro was removed at the Olerud AB, then the pen would have needed to get 11 outs instead of 9 - not that much more of a task.

RascalJones
10-14-2004, 03:12 PM
Of course, it doesn't matter since they scored, oh how many was it, ummm.....ZERO RUNS

Crash Course
10-14-2004, 04:32 PM
One actually, and without the Olerud HR, it's a 1-1 game. In fact, it's a whole different ballgame trying to protect a 1-0 game as opposed to a 3-0 game in the late innings. Maybe the Sox win if Olerud does not HR?