Dunn Done It

[Crash Course]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1892248

that's alotta Ks.

[KCBOOMER]

Along with a lot of walks and HR's. A true 3-outcomes kind of guy.

[mainsr]

Remember a couple years ago, when Lopes benched Hernandez to save him the "ignominy" of a new K record? Good for the Reds for realizing that strikeouts are basically just another out. Going on 200 Ks, but a .951 OPS at $445,000...not too bad.

[Crash Course]

Anyone know Dunn's BA and/or OPS on balls in play?

[mainsr]

Freakshow stats.

He has 150 hits in 565 AB, a .265 average. Take away 194 Ks, and that's 150 hits in 371 AB = .404

He has 150 hits, 107 BB, and 5 HBP to go with 565 AB and no sacs. That works out to a .387 OBP. Take out the Ks and it's .524.

[Crash Course]

Thanks.
So, that begs the question, would he not be more successful if he made contact more often? Oh, but they say strikeouts are no big deal.........

[mainsr]

There are two flaws to that argument.

First, it assumes that if he made contact more, something good would happen. GIDPs are worse. Ground balls to the left side of the infield with a runner on first are almost always worse. Popups, any kind of out with the bases empty, and most fly balls when there are runners on base are no better. Those sorts of outcomes would certainly predominate if he made more contact.

Second, for him to make more contact would mean altering his swing. He'd have to shorten it--goodbye, .568 SLG. He'd have to take fewer pitches and swing more--goodbye, .387 OBP.

If there's an obvious problem with his swing, by all means, he should work on it. But Aaron Dunn was 11th in the NL in OPS, 12th in WS. He and Casey are clearly the best players on the Reds by a long shot. I really wouldn't want to do a lot of tinkering.

[Crash Course]

Question: If a guy has 194 ABs in which he whiffs, and another 194 where he makes contact, in which 194 do you think he'll reach base more often?

[nyy26wc]

Question: If a guy has 194 ABs in which he whiffs, and another 194 where he makes contact, in which 194 do you think he'll reach base more often?

Entirely irrevelant, considering there is no player that had only 194 in which he made contact. Dunn has had 371 AB in which he made contact.

[Crash Course]

It's a "in theory" question, no?

[mainsr]

Question: If a guy has 194 ABs in which he whiffs, and another 194 where he makes contact, in which 194 do you think he'll reach base more often?

Well, obviously, the at-bats where he makes contact. But I don't see the point. If the question were, "What would Dunn have hit he'd struck out 80 fewer times," I think odds are pretty good that his OBP and SLG would have both been lower, because it would have necessitated a lot of changes to his hitting that would have adversely affected his overall performance.

[Crash Course]

It is not unfair to be so willing to accept the assumption that he would not do better while not willing to accept the assumption that he might do better?

[mainsr]

I think I lost you--too many negatives in one question--but I think you're asking why I assume Dunn would do worse if he struck out less. The answer is that the guy is clearly one of the best hitters in the NL, and I think that at that level, there's very little tinkering you can do to improve meaningfully. The one exception is patience, but Dunn's obviously a patient hitter already.

[Crash Course]

What I'm asking - - why so quick to assume he would do worse while you are not as quick to assume he would do better?