Barry, Ichiro and records

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Barry is approaching 755 career homers and Ichiro is approaching 257 hits this season.

Those would be big accomplishments, were those two to reach those milestones, but what about the more significant records that those numbers allude to?

Yes, Aaron hit 755 career homers, but it is far more significant that he had 6856 career total bases.

Sisler had 257 hits in 1920, but it is far more significant that Ruth reached base 379 times in 1923.

Do either of these players have a shot at either of those records?

[Crash Course]

Good points!
I think both marks are safe.

[mgoettsche]

Barry probably doesn't have a shot at Aaron's TB because it doesn't factor in walks...definitely a short coming of TB (or perhaps there should be another stats that factors in all bases). If walks were factored in, Barry would have only been ~925 bases behind Aaron at the start of 2004 and would have a great shot at reaching it.

I don't think either has a shot at Ruth's 379. Bonds is the more likely player to reach this number at some point, but it would require him to miss only 5 or 6 games per year and bat north of .380 for him to do it.

[pepper]

Barry probably doesn't have a shot at Aaron's TB because it doesn't factor in walks...definitely a short coming of TB (or perhaps there should be another stats that factors in all bases). If walks were factored in, Barry would have only been ~925 bases behind Aaron at the start of 2004 and would have a great shot at reaching it.

I don't think either has a shot at Ruth's 379. Bonds is the more likely player to reach this number at some point, but it would require him to miss only 5 or 6 games per year and bat north of .380 for him to do it.

After tonight's game, Bonds is on pace for 375 times on base this year. There is still a decent chance he can do that. He's at 331. 48 times on base in 19 games is not all that unlikely for Barry Bonds, as he'll probably start every single game the rest of the way.

Aggregate bases (TB+BB+HBP+SB), Bonds trails only Aaron, 8530 to 8392. He'll surpass that before he reaches home runs.
If you take off the SB, and there was a stat "bases out of the box", (TB+BB+HBP) , Bonds would still be 3rd, 12 behind Ruth. Aaron is at 8290, Bonds is at 7886. Another one he would take over the lead in a little before he would take the home run lead.

Extremely doubtful that Bonds could catch Aaron in TB. He'd have to play past 45 or they'd have to stop walking him.

[pepper]

48 times on base in 19 games is not all that unlikely for Barry Bonds, as he'll probably start every single game the rest of the way.

Bonds averages 2.59 times on base per game played this year. If he plays all 19, as he is likely to do with Giants having several days off and being in a dead heat for postseason, and if he keeps his average, he would reach base 49 more times this season, breaking the record by 1 time on base.

[mgoettsche]

I guess Bonds does have a good shot at it! :D

[Ytown Tribe fan]

ESPN projects Ba®®y to end up with 139 hits and 228 BB in 145 Games.

I thought it might be interesting to compare Ruth's numbers in '23 with what Bonds projects to this season.

They are both truly monster seasons:


Ruth '23 - .393/.545/.764 152G 205H 45 2B 13 3B 41 HR 170 BB 17 SB 21 CS 151 R 131 RBI 1.309 OPS

Barry Proj - .375/.614/.826 145G 139H 29 2B 1 3B 45 HR 228 BB 7 SB 1 CS 139 R 105 RBI 1.440 OPS

Ruth was pretty busy in '23. It is debatable whether that was even his best season, but it was surely one of his best. Ditto Bonds this year.

Tell you what -- record or no, I absolutely cannot see anyone but Bonds winning the MVP this season. Who the hell has done more? Who COULD do more?

[mainsr]

Tell you what -- record or no, I absolutely cannot see anyone but Bonds winning the MVP this season. Who the hell has done more? Who COULD do more?

You're right, of course, but I could see Bonds losing to one of the three Cards or Beltre, just because sportswriters are that stupid. After all, they gave Clemens the Cy in '01.

[Crash Course]

As many MVPs as Barry wins, folks should focus more on how he was hosed in 1991.

[PianoMonkey]

BTW, why not include CS in "aggregate bases," too?

[captain_napalm]

Tell you what -- record or no, I absolutely cannot see anyone but Bonds winning the MVP this season. Who the hell has done more? Who COULD do more?

Yeah, tell me about it. Courtesy of Lee's Sunday Stat Package:

NL RCAA

LEADERS
1 Barry Bonds 138

TEAM TOTALS
1 Cardinals 135
2 Giants 73
3 Padres 64
4 Phillies 61
5 Braves 57
6 Reds 54
7 Astros 38
8 Dodgers 36
9 Cubs 27
10 Marlins 1
11 Pirates -36
12 Rockies -62
13 Mets -70
14 Expos -102
15 Brewers -112
16 Diamondbacks -135

Amazing, simply amazing

[Ytown Tribe fan]

As many MVPs as Barry wins, folks should focus more on how he was hosed in 1991.

It could've been worse. Bonds finished second in a close vote (he got 10 first-place votes, Terry Pendleton got 12). I remember vividly the discussion on ESPN, etc, after that award -- mainly about how "Pendleton didn't have all the numbers like Bonds had, but the sportwriters got it right anyway". Something about Terry "doing the little things that don't show up in the numbers". It was straight outta 1944.

Two guys who truly got hosed that year were Will Clark, who finished 4th and Ryne Sandberg who finished 17th for a losing team. Sandberg was tied with Bonds for the league lead in Win Shares, with 37. Pendleton was fifth, with 27.

[pepper]

BTW, why not include CS in "aggregate bases," too?

For the same reason outs (or DP) are not included in TB. It's just counting. If you want to measure the real value, yes, you have to subtract CS from SB just like you have to take into consideration how many outs it took to accumulate the total bases.

[mainsr]

Hey, I just noticed that going into this season, Sisler, over his career, had an OPS 24% better than the league, while Ichiro's was 21% better--pretty close. Yes, I know that Sisler's figures include some less productive years at the end of his career, but we're missing Ichiro through age 26 and, of course, this year. Sisler's 257 hit year was a monster season (.407/.449/.632, 1st in TB, 2nd in 2B, 3B, HR (19; Ruth had 54), and SB, 2nd in R, 3rd in RBI) but also far and away the best of his career.

Adjusted for league, park, and position, is Ichiro a better hitter? Who's got the WS and RCAA figures? (I don't have stats books at work.)

[KCBOOMER]

For RCAA Sisler holds a massive 328-98 lead through 2003 but this is very misleading. RCAA is very career length dependent and Sisler's number is based on 16 years while Ichiro has only 3 years. Since Ichiro is having a great year he might cut Sisler's lead by 40 or more RCAA's this year alone.

I don't know of any place on the web that list WS for other than the 2003-2004 seasons so Sisler's numbers are unavailable to me. I guess I need to buy the book.

[nyy26wc]

If you just go by ages 27-30, Sisler still has a dominating 222-146 lead. And Sisler only played 3 of those 4 years.

[mainsr]

I always think of Sisler is one of those guys who didn't evolve with the game. Never became a modern, i.e. slugging, 1B. Led the league in SBs 4 times, second another couple, consistently among the leaders in triples (a product of Sportsman's Park), wouldn't take a walk (exceeded 40 in only his .400 seasons of 1920 and 1922). In a way, he was sort of an Ichiro. Overrated due to his BA.

[pepper]

From September 12:
After tonight's game, Bonds is on pace for 375 times on base this year. There is still a decent chance he can do that. He's at 331. 48 times on base in 19 games is not all that unlikely for Barry Bonds, as he'll probably start every single game the rest of the way.


After today's game, Bonds is at 365. The record is 379. 365 is now the 2nd most times on base in a season. His pace per Giants game played projects him to 379 at the end of the season. If he doesn't sit out any, his pace is a little higher.

However, he left today's game limping in the bottom of the 9th.

[pepper]

Bonds had 7 straight walks from his last plate appearance Friday to his first on Sunday.

This appears to have tied a MLB record.

http://baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_wk1.shtml

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Through games of 9/28, BA®®Y has reached base 367 times this season, which is 12 shy of tying Ruth's record.

He could do it in the final weekend without taking the bat off his shoulder.