2004 A.L. MVP Race

[Crash Course]

See: http://www.netshrine.com/20040820.html

Discussion welcome and appreciated.

[mgoettsche]

Not bad, although it is interesting to note that every single MVP candidate plays with a teammate that will take away some thunder. I'm listing my favorite from each team, followed by the thunder stealers:

Sheff has Matsui and ARod
Ortiz has ManRam
Vlad has Guillen
IRod has Guillen
Tejada has Mora
Blalock has Young and Texiera

I would not discount Tejada from winning this thing...with the Orioles resurgence lately and Tejada absolutely smoking at the plate.

I'd rank them in this order:

1) Vlad
2) Ortiz
3) Sheff
4) Tejada

Whoever gets the wildcard out of the Halos and Sox has to be the front runner. If neither of them get it, Tejada could get it if there are split Yankee votes.

[Crash Course]

I suspect the writers - or someone - as we get close to MVP vote time will pull out A-Rod's BA with RISP (it's .215 as of this AM) and that will cost him some votes. And, FWIW, Matsui has Roy White disease - - no matter how well he plays, no one ever notcies - and they only seem to notice the things that he can't do. Unless he goes crazy and hits 15 HRs in the next 35 games, he will fall under the radar. If a Yankee wins this award, it's going to be Sheffield. He's their 3 hitter for a reason. With all the "bats" on that team - A-Rod, Matsui, Giambi, Jeter, Williams, Posada, etc. - Sheffield is the best of the bunch this year.

mgoettsche - how can you have Ortiz at #2 and not have Manny right there as well. What's the difference between the two?

[Ytown Tribe fan]

How would you rank just the Yanks players, in order of value?

Where does Rivera rank on that list? He is the most effective pitcher, by far, and the team has several offensive contributors, led by Sheff. Sometimes the key player is the best pitcher on an offense-oriented club or the best hitter on a pitching/defense-oriented club.

[mgoettsche]

Hmm, I'd disagree about Matsui...might have been true a couple of months ago, but he's starting to get some serious love on the blogs, and I truly believe this will bleed over into the mainstream sites before the end of September. Already starting to see some trickles.

I'm a huge ManRam fan and thought he was frontrunner during the 1st half of the season. But then he got hurt, didn't play so well in a few games and Ortiz's name started to bubble up. I would personally vote for ManRam, but for some reason I get the feeling that Ortiz is getting the major push in the media now. A lot of the early MVP predictions I've seen on different sites support this. And he certainly deserves mention.

I wouldn't rule out Sheff, especially if he continues to play well with the bum shoulder. Voters certainly love folks overcoming adversity.

With regard to Rivera, I've actually seen some folks say that Gordon has been the Yanks best reliever this year. I disagree, but I have a sense that because Gordon and Quantrill have been so good that Rivera's amazing season loses some of its luster in the eyes of folks.

[Crash Course]

For a closer to win MVP, he has to have a record breaking type season for a winning team - and there has to be no star offensive performer on any of the other post-season teams. The odds of Rivera winning the MVP are slim and none.

[JamesI]

For a closer to win MVP, he has to have a record breaking type season for a winning team - and there has to be no star offensive performer on any of the other post-season teams. The odds of Rivera winning the MVP are slim and none.
I agree with this. He could (but not likely) get the Cy young, but not the MVP.

[mgoettsche]

I concur (Did I do that right?)

It would take a 2003-Gagne season with absolutely no dominating performance for a pitcher or hitter for a closer to win MVP.

Or ask Willie Hernandez how he got his. :rolleyes:

[piaseczynski]

I think the biggest reason Mo won't win the MVP this year is because Nathan has been (marginally) better...

[shoelessjoe]

Okay, here's my picks!

1st choice: Travis Hafner - Cleveland Indians

FYI.....he led my hometown Cowley County Tigers to
back-2-back National Jr. College titles in '97 & '98!

2nd choice: Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox

[Crash Course]

After now hitting his 41st HR tonight, Manny is the new favorite to win the AL MVP. It will be interesting to see how the writers handle this.

[mgoettsche]

Yep...now Manny's to lose.

[manny tortolero]

Sheff would be the man but Manny has the numbers that likes the writers.
BTW, meanwhile Sheff has been a giant in Yankee Stadium, 329 avg and 1029 OPS home vs 272 avg and 886 OPS away, Alrod has been really hurted by his homefield: 280 avg and 846 OPS home vs 290 avg and 926 OPS away .
Neither of both guys looks as candidate to reach the 40 hrs at the end of the season and so, Joe Dimagio will be one year more the last RHB who did the mark for the Bronx Bombers. :D

[Crash Course]

Manny will hit 51 HRs this year and set the all-time Red Sox team season record - just watch. Not bad for a guy placed on waivers this past winter...........

[JamesI]

Manny will hit 51 HRs this year and set the all-time Red Sox team season record - just watch. Not bad for a guy placed on waivers this past winter...........
The embarrasment woke him up.

[nyy26wc]

With their obsession with batting averages and hits, my only question is how close to unanimous does Suzuki come in his victory?

[JamesI]

With their obsession with batting averages and hits, my only question is how close to unanimous does Suzuki come in his victory?

I say right now, Suzuki gets no more than 2 first place votes.

[Crash Course]

Plus, he already has one - they sometimes factor that stuff in, albeit the wrong thing to do.

[mainsr]

I don't think Suzuki will win it, but I think Lee's on to something--Suzuki would get a lot more consideration if not for the fact that the Mariners stink.

Stathead overdrive:
Win shares - Sheffield 29, Matsui/Rodriguez 25, Ramirez/Guillen/Tejada 24, Santana/Guerrero/Suzuki 23 (as of 9/9)
OPS - Ramirez 1038, Mora 1007, Hafner 994, Ortiz 974, Sheffield 961, Guerrero 937, Rowand 932, Teixeira 924, Chavez 922, Guillen 921
RC - Suzuki 118.4, Ramirez 118.2, Ortiz 112.2, Sheffield 112.1, Guerrero 109.4, Mora 109.1, Matsui 105.0, Hafner 104.6, Rodriguez 103.8, Damon 102.8
RC/27 - Mora 8.95, Hafner 8.59, Ramirez 8.58, Ortiz 7.93, Suzuki 7.86, Sheffield 7.80, Rowand 7.77, Durazo 7.70, Matsui 7.50, Guerrero 7.50

I will go out on a limb and predict that Guillen, Rowand, Durazo and Hafner will not get a lot of votes. Neither will Mora.

If the Red Sox win, it's all Manny's.

If they don't, he's probably in the lead, although I think Sheffield has a chance if he has hot September and can finish above .300 with 40+ HR.

I'm not sure whether you're asking who will win or who should. If it's the latter, I'd give it Ramirez by just a smidge over Sheffield.

Still plenty of games to change that.

[Crash Course]

Wow. How many wins shares does Ortiz have?

[mainsr]

Through 9/9
1. Sheffield 29
2. Matsui/Rodriguez 25
3. Ramirez/C. Guillen/Tejada 24
4. Santana/Guerrero/Suzuki 23
5. Damon/Blalock 22
6. J. Guillen/Jeter/Young 21
7. Hafner/Ortiz 20

Ortiz has 20.2 offensive win shares, a total exceeded only by Sheffield (27.1), Matsui (23.2), and Ramirez (21.3), which says a great deal about what the Win Shares system thinks of his glovework.

Jose Guillen??

Oh, and this I'm not touching with a 10-foot pole:
FIELDING WIN SHARES
Damian Miller/Jeter 6.7
Crosby/Damon 6.1
Lugo 6.0

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/wsallead/

[Crash Course]

That's 2004 American League Gold Glove Winner at SS, Jeter, to you! :stinker:

[mainsr]

Zoilo Versalles won the MVP in 1965. Davey Johnson hit 43 homers in 1973. Snuffy Stirnweiss...

[Crash Course]

.......was killed in a train crash. ;)

[KCBOOMER]

The boys over at BP are saying the MVP should go to Carlos Guillen, SS of the Tigers. They say he is having the best year of any player in the AL. Remember they don't care about who you play for.

[Crash Course]

I'm really starting to wonder about those guys.

[Joseph]

I think Guillen and I-rod are both legit canidates, and I am someone who see it more as an award for a 'valuble' player and not as an award for the best player.

Ivan and Carlos are the big reason why the tiger's winning % jumped 200 points from 03 to 04. If that isn't value, I don't know what is.

[mandarama_2003]

Sheffield all the way! He has played absolutely amazing all season, even with all the aliments. He has been the most consistant player in the Yankee line-up. Matsui gets overlooked for a reason, he's on a team of superstars. You have to do something pretty incredible to get noticed.

[Crash Course]

Sheff made the slight mistake of cooling off just a tad when Manny took off - - of course, that can be reversed over he next two to three weeks. ;)

[Makofan]

Current Win Shares shows Sheffield the clear MVP

[Crash Course]

Who's going to tell the BBWAA? ;)

[Joseph]

Shefield wasn't playing like an MVP the first two months of the season.

[Crash Course]

Fair point.

[JamesI]

Sheff made the slight mistake of cooling off just a tad when Manny took off - - of course, that can be reversed over he next two to three weeks. ;)

August and September appear to be most important to MVP voters. Manny's good hitting right now favors him, while Shef probably should win. (I said something nice about a Yankee)

[mainsr]

Shefield wasn't playing like an MVP the first two months of the season.

Yeah, but there is probably something to the adjusting-to-a-new-league stuff. You have a point, though, no MVP candidate other than Suzuki was as bad in a month as Sheffield was in April.

[guidry49]

an interesting stat that I would appreciate someone researching....how many of Sheff's HR's either tied the game, or gave the Yankees the lead? I'm willing to be at least half.

Also- noone mentioned Sheff's Defense.....last I remember he lead the league in Outfield Assists. Manny has been better this year....but still not as good.

[Crash Course]

Actually, the Fielding WS of Sheff and Manny are about even: http://www.bryandonovan.com/winshares/index.php?search=&sort=field&sort2=pos&limit1=Team&limit2=OF

[Crash Course]

I never would have guessed this!

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/234248p-201213c.html

that 17 of Rodriguez's homers have either tied a game or put the Yankees ahead - one more than Gary Sheffield. Sheffield, universally regarded as an MVP candidate, has hit 10 home runs in the seventh inning or later this season. A-Rod, the defending AL MVP who has hardly been mentioned in connection with the award this year, has hit nine.