Ytown Tribe fan
07-30-2004, 09:57 PM
The awful truth (based on history) is that at least half of the teams that are leading their divisions right now will go on to make the playoffs, and that a team that is currently more than 5-games out will be making history in the wild-card era if they achieve a playoff spot this year.
Last year, the Twins were 5-games out (in the loss column) on July 31st and got hot while the Royals came back to earth and won the division.
In 2001, the Cards were 5-games out on July 31st, got hot late while the Astros fell to earth and both teams made the playoffs.
Since the wild-card began, those are the only two teams to come from 5 games out on July 31st to make the playoffs.
Right now, the teams that are in "playoff position" are the Yanks, Twins, A's and Rangers in the AL, and the Braves, Cards, Dodgers and Padres in the NL.
Three teams in the AL are within 5 losses: Boston, Chicago and Anaheim. In the NL, teams within 5 losses are the Cubs, Giants, Marlins, Phillies and Astros.
Everyone else has much history working against them.
Now, it is easy to see that teams like the Rangers and Padres have a real shot at NOT making the playoffs, and that one team from each league might very well climb into those spots. That is, in fact, a likely playoff scenerio based on history.
Hope springs eternal, and some GMs are hoping to repeat what the '78 Yanks and the '73 Mets did, but they are almost certainly trading their future for an unrealistic shot at the playoffs this season.
The Mets and the Tribe would be making wild-card history to come from 6-losses back to earn a spot, and they certainly think they can do it. The difference is that the Tribe management has no intention of trading the great young players we have for one or two pitchers who won't help us NEXT year, when we WILL be legit contenders; the Mets are being silly and delusional and they will pay for that in the future.
Last year, the Twins were 5-games out (in the loss column) on July 31st and got hot while the Royals came back to earth and won the division.
In 2001, the Cards were 5-games out on July 31st, got hot late while the Astros fell to earth and both teams made the playoffs.
Since the wild-card began, those are the only two teams to come from 5 games out on July 31st to make the playoffs.
Right now, the teams that are in "playoff position" are the Yanks, Twins, A's and Rangers in the AL, and the Braves, Cards, Dodgers and Padres in the NL.
Three teams in the AL are within 5 losses: Boston, Chicago and Anaheim. In the NL, teams within 5 losses are the Cubs, Giants, Marlins, Phillies and Astros.
Everyone else has much history working against them.
Now, it is easy to see that teams like the Rangers and Padres have a real shot at NOT making the playoffs, and that one team from each league might very well climb into those spots. That is, in fact, a likely playoff scenerio based on history.
Hope springs eternal, and some GMs are hoping to repeat what the '78 Yanks and the '73 Mets did, but they are almost certainly trading their future for an unrealistic shot at the playoffs this season.
The Mets and the Tribe would be making wild-card history to come from 6-losses back to earn a spot, and they certainly think they can do it. The difference is that the Tribe management has no intention of trading the great young players we have for one or two pitchers who won't help us NEXT year, when we WILL be legit contenders; the Mets are being silly and delusional and they will pay for that in the future.