Stottlemyre v. Messersmith

[Crash Course]

Just sent Neyer a note to consider Mel S with Leo Mazz..........and then I started to look at Mel's career, which led to this question:

Andy Messersmith or Mel Stottlemyre - who was the better pitcher - and why?

[sweaver]

I vote Stottlemyre, by a margin not large but nonetheless comfortable. Both had comparable peaks, but Stottlemyre had more staying power.

[nyy26wc]

Messersmith

145-97 edge in RSAA
5-2 edge in 20+ RSAA seasons
Stottlemyre had 2-0 edge in double digit negative RSAA seasons
2 years better than Stottlemyre's best figure of 27 RSAA
0.70 to 0.56 edge in ERA vs. league average
5-4 lead in ranking in the top 10 in RSAA
3-1 lead in ranking in the top 5 in RSAA
5-5 tie in ranking in the top 10 in ERA, but Messersmith has a 4-0 lead in the top 5 and Stottlemyre had a 1-0 lead in top 10 worst ERA rankings

[Crash Course]

Messersmith
slam dunk
bad pairing on my part
I was looking at pitchers from 1964-74 - and saw they were equal from that period - forgot that Andy pitched years after 74.

[sweaver]

Using the superficial stats, Stottlemyre (Dad Stottlemyre, that is) was 164-139 with mostly mediocre Yankee teams, and had a 2.97 ERA. Messersmith was 130-99 with a 2.86 ERA, and pitched for some poor teams but also had his three best years with the contending Dodgers. Messersmith had 2230 career innings, Stottlemyre 2661.

After 1974, Messersmith had one good year, one OK year, and three years of injuries. Not a lot there.

Stottlemyre had 177 career Win Shares, Messersmith 169. Messersmith had a 57.0 career WARP3 score, Stottlemyre 67.7.

I think there's room for debate there.

[Crash Course]

Good points sweave - thanks.

[nyy26wc]

Using the superficial stats, Stottlemyre (Dad Stottlemyre, that is) was 164-139 with mostly mediocre Yankee teams, and had a 2.97 ERA.

Stottlemyre wasn't hurt by playing for "mostly mediocre Yankee teams." They have been poor by Yankees standards, but not by the normal baseball standards.

The 1964-74 Yankees ranked 4th in the AL in wins. He was supported by a lineup that ranked in the top half of the league, with 146 RCAA.

His neutral W-L record is 165-138, which is indistinguishable from his 164-139 record.

So, his real "complaint" wouldn't be that he was hurt by his team, it was that he wasn't able to inflate his record on the laurels of hitters from other Yankees eras.

On the other hand, Messersmith's "W"-"L" record drops by 6 "wins" from his neutral record.

[pwdennis]

I picked Stottlemeyer. I never root for Yankees but Stottlemeyer was a classy pitcher and fierce competitor. 152 CGs and 40 SHOs in a 10.5 year career tell the story of a determined battler

Today, Stotlemeyer would have had a much longer career. His career ended with a rotator cuff injury - prior to that he was a horse of a pitcher. He didn't strike out many batters but had very good control and was basically a ground ball pitcher, the type of pitcher who is most affected by poor infield defense. While those Yankee teams that he pitched for were okay, their infield defense was relatively poor and there were a lot of "non-plays" (therefore no error charged) on balls that a better defense would have turned into outs)

This is not to denigrate Messersmith who was a good pitcher and important historical figure. Unfortunately, I don't remember what caused Andy's career to end prematurely

[nyy26wc]

Messersmith's career also ended prematurely, due to injury.

And if their careers were longer, I would expect Messersmith's advantage to grow.

Stottlemyre was -420 vs. the league in SO. Despite a short career, that's still the 2nd worst figure in AL history. And that is also consistent with the profile of a pitcher who has problems making effectiveness late in his career.

Meanwhile, Messersmith was +305 vs. the league in SO.

[pwdennis]

Messersmith's career also ended prematurely, due to injury.

And if their careers were longer, I would expect Messersmith's advantage to grow.

Stottlemyre was -420 vs. the league in SO. Despite a short career, that's still the 2nd worst figure in AL history. And that is also consistent with the profile of a pitcher who has problems making effectiveness late in his career.

Meanwhile, Messersmith was +305 vs. the league in SO.

I agree that Ks are a leading indicator, but there is a certain class of pitchers for whom it's not nearly as important - your quintessential sinkerballer and knuckle ball pitchers, for instance. I suspect that today, Mel would have the rotator cuff surgery and post 4 or 5 more good seasons, perhaps more

[Crash Course]

Just sent Neyer a note to consider Mel S with Leo Mazz..........and then I started to look at Mel's career, which led to this question:

Andy Messersmith or Mel Stottlemyre - who was the better pitcher - and why?

BTW, in Neyer's column today, he references a note from a Yankee fan:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1785547

Today I'm revisiting last Thursday's column on the notion that pitching coaches should be considered for the Hall of Fame ...

You mention Leo Mazzone and Johnny Sain ... but whatever happened to Mel Stottlemyre? He was first a pitching coach for the Mets and is now in his ninth year with the Yankees. Have you forgotten he's only won five World Series as a pitching coach, and is one of the most highly regarded coaches in the game.

Jeez, it must be awful to be a New York baseball fan, and have the media ignore you all the time. It's a wonder you can even keep track of what the local teams are doing!

Kidding aside, that message was from a Yankees fan who has, for many years, been peppering me with nasty notes any time he feels I've displayed less than the proper deference for his favorite team. (It got so obnoxious that I finally configured my e-mail to automatically delete anything he sent, but apparently he's changed addresses.)


FWIW, that was not me! ('Tho I realize that some may want to think it was me for whatever reason.)

This is the note that I sent:

-----Original Message-----
From: Lombardi Stephen
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2004 11:45 AM
To: Neyer, Rob
Subject: Mel Stottlemyre

If I'm not mistaken, Mel's right up there with Leo.
Check his record with the Mets, 1984 - 1993, and Yankees, 1996-2004.
IIRC, he was with Houston in between. That's 20 years, thereabouts.
- Steve Lombardi
NetShrine.com


to which replied:

From: Neyer, Rob
Sent: Thu 4/15/2004 6:57 PM
To: Lombardi Stephen
Subject: RE: Mel Stottlemyre

Oh, he’s not short on years. His record’s not as impressive as I thought it would be, though. Where Mazzone’s 17 percent better than league average, Stottlemyre’s about six percent better (which is still excellent, of course). -rob

[JamesI]

Steve, I apologize if I insulted you.
Of course I find it interesting that 20 minutes after I post something on a different site, I get a response from you.

[Crash Course]

I could see where this assumption could very easily be made - no insult taken at all. I probably would have had guessed towards the same conclusion, to some extent, if I were outside the equation.

As far as the timing, that was probably dumb luck on my part. Every once in a while, you just step in it, I guess. ;)

[KCBOOMER]

Lee has pretty well wrapped this up. Advance: Messersmith.

[Golden Bear]

Stottlemyre, on durability and pitching for worse teams.

[nyy26wc]

Stottlemyre, on durability and pitching for worse teams.

Average record of his teams
Stottlemyre: 83-79
Messersmith: 81=81

Average level of run support
Stottlemyre: 13 RCAA
Messersmith: -22 RCAA

Messersmith was the one who played for worse teams.

[sweaver]

2 wins is an insignificant margin. Messersmith pitched for better teams in LA, and also worse teams in California.