Michael Lewis On WFAN: A's To Struggle In Future

[Crash Course]

http://wfan.com/chrismikeaudio/local_audioclip_104163116.html

Basically, Lweis is saying now that the A's 'secret' is out, teams with more money, like the Red Sox are going to use the 'A's-way' and cause the A's not to be able to compete in the future.

Do you agree?

[thermos]

http://wfan.com/chrismikeaudio/local_audioclip_104163116.html

Basically, Lweis is saying now that the A's 'secret' is out, teams with more money, like the Red Sox are going to use the 'A's-way' and cause the A's not to be able to compete in the future.

Do you agree?

I think some things the A's (and other teams) have done will be adopted by other teams, some with greater resources. So, like arbitrage opportunities in general, the opportunity to make a play on the undervaluation of things like plate judgment (or in Houston's case, "undersized" pitchers. or whatever else teams decide is valuable and undervalued by ther clubs or "conventional wisdom") will diminish. It still takes management to execute, though, and that's as applied to Oakland, the Red Sox, or any other team. No strategy is foolproof, not even outspending every other team on high-priced free agents.

I also think the likelihood of a good number of other teams being ,anaged well enough that "smart" management ceases to be a meaningful advantage is pretty small. You only have to look at, and listen to, the owners of many of these clubs to know that the league is not in danger of being dominated by the best and the brightest any time soon. Lewis is giving MLB way too much credit.

[KCBOOMER]

As the "smart"thing to do becomes the "book" thing to do then the advantage the smart guy has is weakened, but not eliminated.

[Makofan]

To some degree, he is right. The Blue Jays built a winning foundation in the 1980's by focussing on the under-exploited latin players resouce. Eventually, everybody else caught up. What you have to do then is come up with a new wrinkle. I am sure there is always something you can think about that others are not doing.

[Elmo]

One of the interesting things that Lewis has been saying on his circuit is that teams like the Yankees not being smart actually helps competitive balance because if they spent their money efficiently it's possible that they couldn't be beat - maybe.

I think the bit about people catching is probably true in some of the broad strokes of what the A's do - which is to try to maximize the efficiency of the organization in getting people successfully to the bigs and then having an impact there. And in an actuarial sense matching fiscal investment to those probabilities and the various skills that make up Beane's algorithm.

But I would say that I think he is worng on this to a 'broader' extent. While it is true that basically each year the A's have shed a hitter or two and to some extent replace them from within. They really haven't been consistently developing pitchers. Now Harden and Blanton may be wonderful and may be ready to replace The Hudson/Zito/Mulders come such time as they exceed the financial paradigm - but a lot of their arms haven't panned out - nor broguht them such great shakes in return. And it is also possible that other teams may look at the formula and not just admire some shrewdness, but also some luck. To have three pitchers of that caliber who have been able to shoulder (bah-dum) relatively high workloads and remain relatively healthy is....unusual.

Taking college pitchers and not spending a lot on high school or guys like Harden (from a JC in the 17th round) certainly minimizes financial risk - but does it really guarantee on field success? It's possible that the A's have not just been good - but in no measure not a little lucky too.

As KCboomer says - smart guys will probably stay ahead of the curves, and you'd have to bet on Beane as being a likely candidate to stay ahead of the curve. I think Lewis' comments reflect a lack of dynamic adjustment, which may or may not maximize the benefits to people who try the 'method' in a reactionary way.

[pathogan]

...baseball knew OBP was important,im not so certain that the wave of the future is going to engulf the A's. after all, havent they been on the brink of doom like every season,? ,this season with tejada gone is another example...we'll see ;) i still think they are in the WS this year