Joel Pineiro v. Josh Beckett

[Crash Course]

Which pitcher would you rather have on your team, right now?

[Crash Course]

Here is an interesting snapshot:


2000-2003

AGE <= 23
INNINGS PITCHED BETWEEN 200 AND 300
BASERUNNERS/9 IP vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
STRIKEOUTS/WALKS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL WINS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RSAA BETWEEN 20 AND 36

RSAA RSAA IP BR/9 IP SO/BB N_W
1 Joel Pineiro 35 289 1.64 0.37 19
2 Josh Beckett 21 273.2 1.10 0.65 20

[Makofan]

Here is an interesting snapshot:


2000-2003

AGE <= 23
INNINGS PITCHED BETWEEN 200 AND 300
BASERUNNERS/9 IP vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
STRIKEOUTS/WALKS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL WINS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RSAA BETWEEN 20 AND 36

RSAA RSAA IP BR/9 IP SO/BB N_W
1 Joel Pineiro 35 289 1.64 0.37 19
2 Josh Beckett 21 273.2 1.10 0.65 20


Josh Becket; better K/W ration and lower BB/9. I think over time those two factors will be of more significance than the RSAA at age 23. To put this in other terms, over the next 3 seasons I would still pick Josh

[WiredTiger]

Right now I'd rather have Pineiro. He's a little bit more proven and hasn't been injured as much.

[KCBOOMER]

Something is wrong here. Nobody has a BR/9 under 2. Did you mean WHIP or BR/IP??

Pineiro has the benefit of actually have pitched his year 24 season which Beckett hasn't done yet. To ignore this extra season is to distort what Pineiro has done to date. Beckett has one season of double digit RSAA while Pineiro has three. Pineiro is also one year farther down the injury nexus of pitchers, which is good.

Tough call. Pineiro's avoidance of injury so far means he has been better so far and probably a better risk. On the other hand our eyes watched Beckett on the big stage throw lights out against a pretty good, not great, lineup.

[Skip]

Something is wrong here. Nobody has a BR/9 under 2. Did you mean WHIP or BR/IP??It's v. league average ... presumably those numbers are how much better than league average they are, but it's not really clear. Since they're positive, they could be BR/9 above league average, which is a bad thing. ???

[nyy26wc]

It's v. league average ... presumably those numbers are how much better than league average they are, but it's not really clear. Since they're positive, they could be BR/9 above league average, which is a bad thing. ???

Since they are positive numbers, that means better than the league average. So, in this case, they would mean under the average.

[Crash Course]

Thanks Lee.

[nyy26wc]

You left out a key stat: SO vs. LG/AVG

Beckett: +2.78
Pineiro: +.13

I have to say too close to call. I like Beckett's chances of being the better pitcher. But, in light of Pineiro having 3 years of double digit RSAA's and Beckett only having one, I'm putting this one in the too close to call column.

[Skip]

Since they are positive numbers, that means better than the league average. So, in this case, they would mean under the average.That's the obvious assumption, but positive numbers don't neccessarily mean what you say, just because you or even most people use them that way. But, we dont need to argue here.

[Crash Course]

You left out a key stat: SO vs. LG/AVG

Beckett: +2.78
Pineiro: +.13

I have to say too close to call. I like Beckett's chances of being the better pitcher. But, in light of Pineiro having 3 years of double digit RSAA's and Beckett only having one, I'm putting this one in the too close to call column.

Does SO vs. LG/AVG include pitchers as batters? If yes, Beckett gets an NL break there.

FWIW, I went with too close to call.

Funny that it is close between them - - perhaps we should be talking more about Joel - - -or at least as much as we talk about Josh.

[nyy26wc]

Does SO vs. LG/AVG include pitchers as batters? If yes, Beckett gets an NL break there.

Since we can't eliminate pitching vs. pitchers from pitchers stats, then yes it does include them.

However, not only will Beckett's stats include facing pitchers, but so will the league average.

The distance between Beckett and the league might be increased by him having extra SO vs. pitchers, it might be decreased by him striking out less of them or there may be virtually no difference. And we have no idea what category he would fit into.

Funny that it is close between them - - perhaps we should be talking more about Joel - - -or at least as much as we talk about Josh.

I agree.

[gyb13]

i'd rather have pineiro. and the less hype. it'll help in contract negotiations.

[satchel]

That's the obvious assumption, but positive numbers don't neccessarily mean what you say, just because you or even most people use them that way.
Huh? It's not an assumption; it's an explanation. It means what Lee says it means because Lee wrote the software that spit out the values.

On the topic, I guess I would have to say Piniero right now, though Beckett may still have even greater upside. Beckett could turn out to be a truly great pitcher.

[Skip]

Huh? It's not an assumption; it's an explanation. It means what Lee says it means because Lee wrote the software that spit out the values. That was meant to be a generic 'you' in my earlier post. What I was trying to say was that simply looking at a table saying, e.g., that Pineiro was +1.64 in BR/9, 'you' wouldn't necessarily know if that meant BR/9 above league average (a bad thing) or BR/9 better than league average (a good thing), because different people might generate data using either of the assumptions I listed.

I didn't mean to imply Lee didn't know what his software did. Sorry Lee.

[sweaver]

I chose Piniero. Beckett has more potential, but a worrisome injury history.

[clemente21]

I went with Pineiro for now, more experience, more strikeouts, less injuries. Ask me in three years, though, and I'll probably say Beckett.

[nyy26wc]

I went with Pineiro for now, more experience, more strikeouts, less injuries. Ask me in three years, though, and I'll probably say Beckett.

Pineiro's more SO is solely a result of more career IP.

He's struck out 64 more batters in his career than Beckett, but it took him an extra 227 innings. That's the equivalent of a season's worth of pitching at a 2.53 SO/9 IP rate, which is a terrible rate.

[SmedIndy]

Can I have both?

[nyy26wc]

Can I have both?

Sure. Just become a Yankees fan. Eventually, we get everybody. :hooray: