San Francisco Giants 2004 Outlook

[sweaver]

Barry Bonds, all the time.

Players in: A.J. Pierzynski, Dustan Mohr, Michael Tucker, Brett Tomko.
Players out: Rich Aurilla, Jose Cruz, Benito Santiago, Marvin Benard, Tim Worrell, Sidney Ponson, Joe Nathan

Lineup (???)
C: Pierzynski
IF: 1B Snow/Feliz, 2B Durham, SS Neifi, 3B Alfonzo
OF: Bonds, Grissom, Hammonds
Bench: Castillo, Torrealba, Cody Ransom, Mohr, Tucker, Torcato

Rotation: Jason Schmidt, Jerome Williams, Kirk Rueter, Jesse Foppert, Tomko
Bullpen: Robb Nen, Scott Eyre, Jim Brower, Felix Rodriguez, Dustin Hermanson, Matt Herges.

[gyb13]

despite bonds, i could see them dropping to 3rd this year. they're lucky their divisional opponents really haven't improved

[Gosfgiants]

The San Francisco press has been taking Sabaen and the Giants to task this off-season. With the clock ticking on Bonds many feel that this was the year to get a high priced bat in the free agent market. Instead the Giants have started crying poverty. The team is claiming that lost $15 million last year. This despite having one the highest attendances figure in the league and the money making machine of Pacbell Park. The Giants will probably be in the thick of it in the division due to the weakness of the West. However, even if they make the playoffs it looks like they might make another early exit.

[pathogan]

despite bonds, i could see them dropping to 3rd this year. they're lucky their divisional opponents really haven't improved

...I know that Magowan does not have the resources of others, but Pac bel is a cash cow for the near future,I think they could have attempted to find another bat...as a met fan, I probably forfeit any logical baseball dicussion

[JamesI]

The west is weak enough that any team (other than the Rockies) have a legit shot at winning right now. I don't think the Giants repeat, probably second.

[Elmo]

Instead the Giants have started crying poverty. The team is claiming that lost $15 million last year. This despite having one the highest attendances figure in the league and the money making machine of Pacbell Park.

That's debt service on the stadium - it's illusory/paper, the g'ints are doing fine. They're writing off the debt service (of Course) and player salaries (is this McGowan's last year for that?) and generally avoiding revenue sharing and such.

McGowan necessarily has more money on the line than other owners, so until contraction and the A's situation is settled, he's going to be fairly conservative. But OMG, wait until the debt service/equity ratio is better - they'll challenge the Yanks for revenue - just watch.

[OaktownTribeFan]

The San Francisco press has been taking Sabaen and the Giants to task this off-season. With the clock ticking on Bonds many feel that this was the year to get a high priced bat in the free agent market. Instead the Giants have started crying poverty. The team is claiming that lost $15 million last year. This despite having one the highest attendances figure in the league and the money making machine of Pacbell Park. The Giants will probably be in the thick of it in the division due to the weakness of the West. However, even if they make the playoffs it looks like they might make another early exit.

Sabean called anyone who criticized the front office "the lunatic fringe." He's very thin-skinned for a GM. I don't buy their cries of poverty. They think they've got a cash cow, with sold-out crowds in 04 no matter what they do in the off-season. "Hey, if the park's going to be filled with butts every game, why worry about winning it all?"--that sums up their attitude. But the window for them contending could be closing very soon now.

[pepper]

They're writing off the debt service (of Course) and player salaries (is this McGowan's last year for that?) and generally avoiding revenue sharing and such.

I read the biggest hit was the revenue sharing, which was estimated at $13 million for 2004, which is approximately the price of a very good player.

recent Sabean whining article (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2004/01/14/SPGUT49LOH1.DTL)

[Domeboys]

Rotation: Jason Schmidt, Jerome Williams, Kirk Rueter, Jesse Foppert, Tomko
Bullpen: Robb Nen, Scott Eyre, Jim Brower, Felix Rodriguez, Dustin Hermanson, Matt Herges.

Foppert had TJ surgery and is out for 2004. As of now, Hermanson is in the rotation instead, giving the Giants two former Cardinal starters. All I can say is "good luck"!

[Rajah]

it may be illusory in that (aside from the interest) it doesn't affect net income, but the debt service payments certainly sap cash flow. None of really know what the Giants cash flows look like. so it is theoretically possible that they have a cash flow problem. Its not like they have a sweetheart stadium lease with the local Park District or Stadium Authority. They also have considerations like property taxes, and its possible that the stadium raised the land values in the area of SF in which the park exists, causing a higher property tax bill.

[Elmo]

it may be illusory in that (aside from the interest) it doesn't affect net income, but the debt service payments certainly sap cash flow. None of really know what the Giants cash flows look like. so it is theoretically possible that they have a cash flow problem. Its not like they have a sweetheart stadium lease with the local Park District or Stadium Authority. They also have considerations like property taxes, and its possible that the stadium raised the land values in the area of SF in which the park exists, causing a higher property tax bill.

I can't imagine that they would have a 'real' cash flow problem - these things can be got over fairly easily with short term loans against property - one of the advantages of owning your park - and all of the interest payments are probably deductable from their taxes so at the end of the day, those payments are likely not costs at all except on balance sheets where it is preferable to show losses of course. I also imagine - although I don't know the arranegment, that they are probably not paying property taxes, or greatly reduced ones as is usually the case with ballparks.

[lonelybrewerfan]

I think the Giants had a very good offseason because they refused to overpay for what was out there. Sure Sheff or Vlad would have been nice but not at the prices they were asking for. Sabean is as astute an evaluator as they come and you know they are going to be around in July. Why not just wait a little and see what they have and then make a few deals in July. There are going to be bats available at the deadline so why not wait it out. If I were Greg Maddux, I would sign a one yr deal with tons of incentives in SF because the ballpark is huge.

I see the Giants winning the West easily.

[Dykstra]

Sabean builds the same team each year: deep pen, deep bench, no stars, proven major leaguers. They are sure to be in the playoff hunt but very unlikely to grab the brass ring. It makes for a great record over the course of Bonds' career, and, if a miracle happens, it could just work.

This year's potential miracle: Todd Linden. The Giants haven't developed a real hitter in a generation. Maybe this time ...

[qtlaw]

While it would have been nice to make a nice splash with Sheff or Vlad, I believe in what Sabean is doing. No fan wants to acknowledge the Pac Bell Park debt but the Giants are the only team that pays substantial $$$ (20M/yr) for its own park. If Schmidt is the same horse as last year the Giants will be fine. I believe that Durham and Alfonzo will be more comfortable this year and will increase their production while Tomko will surprise.

[Dykstra]

While it would have been nice to make a nice splash with Sheff or Vlad, I believe in what Sabean is doing. No fan wants to acknowledge the Pac Bell Park debt but the Giants are the only team that pays substantial $$$ (20M/yr) for its own park. If Schmidt is the same horse as last year the Giants will be fine. I believe that Durham and Alfonzo will be more comfortable this year and will increase their production while Tomko will surprise.

Fine is fine, but is there enough talent to win a championship, or even a pennant? I don't think so. Could they do more for the same amount of money? Not without an amazing set of coincidences, career years, rookie standouts. Sure, if Jerome Williams becomes Tom Seaver, they have a shot.

Something to dream about until April brings reality.

[sweaver]

Gotta remember that Bonds counts as two or three good players.

[Dykstra]

Gotta remember that Bonds counts as two or three good players.

So true, which is why they'll probably win the division. But Bonds can't take the Giants further in the playoffs if he walks every time up.

Gotta have a couple of stud pitchers and a bat to back Barry up in the playoffs. Not the 'proven major leaguer' types that win over the long season.