Draft Strategy

[tyruschen]

Recently I started to write some seaon previews articles for a forum in Chinese. (I guess Bill James will hate what I wrote, thank God he doesn't know Chinese :p) Since I checked the Indians & Chisox's farm systems and draft picks last couple years, I found they spend a lot to draft and sign pitcher prospects. Is that some kind of strategy of team management? If it is, do you think it's smart to see pitchers as priority?
Thanks!

[KCBOOMER]

Pitchers constitute 40 to 50 percent of all MLers at any one time so some kind of priority has to be given that position. It is also the most dominant position in the game as it is the one guaranteed to touch the ball at the start of a play. Good Pitching beats Good Hitting and all that jazz.

The great debate has been whether drafting pitchers out of high school is a reasonable risk. The failure rate of such prospects due to physical breakdown is the highest of all groups of players drafted. The general thought to day is that it is safer to wait until after a pitcher goes to college. This permits him to pitch another two-three years and physically mature without risking a couple million bucks. You also get another couple years of evaluation on them.

That said, some teams just can't seem to avoid drafting high school pitchers because their upside looks so promising ("gosh, if he's this good at 18 think what he will be like at 22").

[cardinaldave]

Pitchers constitute 40 to 50 percent of all MLers at any one time so some kind of priority has to be given that position. It is also the most dominant position in the game as it is the one guaranteed to touch the ball at the start of a play. Good Pitching beats Good Hitting and all that jazz.

The great debate has been whether drafting pitchers out of high school is a reasonable risk. The failure rate of such prospects due to physical breakdown is the highest of all groups of players drafted. The general thought to day is that it is safer to wait until after a pitcher goes to college. This permits him to pitch another two-three years and physically mature without risking a couple million bucks. You also get another couple years of evaluation on them.

That said, some teams just can't seem to avoid drafting high school pitchers because their upside looks so promising ("gosh, if he's this good at 18 think what he will be like at 22").

...and because of the money, they rush them throught the system too quickly. Most 19,20,21 year olds are not ready to be in the 'bigs'. The pressure of having to be ready everyday, and having to perform at the highest level everyday for 6 months + spring training; spending everyday with men 5,10,15 years or more older; performing in front of tens of thousands of scrutinizing fans daily; and doing all this while almost assuredly dealing w/ some degree of separation anxiety, can overwhelm a young pitcher while trying to learn one of the most difficult crafts in professional sports. See: Rick Ankiel.

[tyruschen]

If there are a great hitter and a great pitcher prospect (both from high or college, the hitter's fielding position is what your team lack of), which one will you choose first? I heard some saying that they prefer hitters cause too much unpredictability on pitchers. (and injury possibility) Agree?

[gyb13]

absolutely. if a great hitting prospect fills an obvious need, i'd take him over the pitcher, due to the uncertainty around pitchers.

some of the successful young rotations currently in the game came from the approach of stockpiling pitchers and hoping a couple would pan out at the same time.