Best defensive CF?

[tyruschen]

In this Dec. 21 article by Peter Gammons,
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1691516
he mentioned that Andruw Jones is only the 4th best defensive center fielder:

...When the Oakland A's were in pursuit of Mike Cameron, it was partially because their complex system showed that he was far and away the best defensive center fielder in the majors, followed by Torii Hunter and Mark Kotsay (before Andruw Jones).

Is that real? After watching so many Braves' games, and so many easygoing and spectacular catches made by Andruw (not to mention 6 GG in a row)...it's really hard for me to believe he is only the 4th best.

[Wolf Hopper]

They could be using RNG - but, that's far from a complex sysytem.
Cameron was by far the leading CF in RNG - followed by Alex Sanchez, Baldelli, Beltran, Edmonds, Hunter, Matos, Kotsay, Bradley - and then Andruw.

[huskerdru]

They could be using RNG - but, that's far from a complex sysytem.
Cameron was by far the leading CF in RNG - followed by Alex Sanchez, Baldelli, Beltran, Edmonds, Hunter, Matos, Kotsay, Bradley - and then Andruw.

I've looked for, and cannot yet find, an analysis Neyer did awhile back (but within the last 2 yrs) that demonstrated Andruw is not only the best CF today, but likely the best ever - by a considerable margin. I'm thinkin' they used Zone Rating heavily, as the RNG for Cameron, Jones, and Hunter are tightly bunched (though Cameron's for last season was demonstrably better - 3.42 vs. an average of 2.75 or so for Jones and Hunter).

I also read a baseball blog that indicated Jones's Zone Rating (from STATS) was the worst in the NL for OF last season, while his defensive WS put him second in the NL. Is this just more fuel to the "we haven't really found a very good way to quantify defense" fire??

[tyruschen]

I've looked for, and cannot yet find, an analysis Neyer did awhile back (but within the last 2 yrs) that demonstrated Andruw is not only the best CF today, but likely the best ever?

Maybe you mean this:
http://msn.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/neyer_rob/1410373.html

If Andruw is as great as Neyer mentioned, I think we should see some kind of stats like Ozzie or Mazeroski compare to others, or is that you just can't count OF's defense by stats?

[sweaver]

Still looking for the Holy Grail of defensive stats. Well, I think Andruw is the best CF in the majors, but that doesn't mean he had to top all the stats last year. The best hitter doesn't lead in average, or runs created, every year.

In fielding percentage, Andruw was 5th in the majors (Damon, Biggio, Williams, Pierre). In putouts, Andruw was also 5th (Cameron, Baldelli, Hunter, Pierre). In range factor, Andruw was 8th (Cameron, Baldelli, Sanchez, Edmonds, Beltran, Hunter, Kotsay). In Zone Rating, he was 18th, ahead of only Finley and Wilson among regular CFs.

In fielding Win Shares, Andruw was 1st among OFs, and 1st in WS/1000 innings among those playing at least 200 innings. Win Shares takes context into account, unlike most other measures.

According to David Pinto's Probablistic Range, (Baseball Musings, Dec. 6 entry) Andruw was #1 among regular CF in the majors, followed by Kotsay and Beltran.

I'd say whoever was judging the zones in Braves' games was off.

[gyb13]

i don't think it was off. maybe we're underestimating the change in the braves' pitchers on the # of chances andruw had last year.

[jvonbokel]

I think the basic problem comes down to the difference between offense and defense. A hit is a hit regardless of where it lands, but an out isn't always an out - it depends on where it's hit to. I'm not sure if that makes sense... let me say it another way. If two guys hit a ball to the same spot, it's a hit regardless of who's bat it came off of. If two different fielders go for the same ball, one might get it, while the other won't. Why is that? That's an equation with multiple answers. Certainly speed is a factor, but I think anticipation is the biggest. Knowing the hitter/pitcher and putting on a minor shift of some sort seems to be the trick, but even that is a rather inexact science. A great hitter will pick up on those things and adjust his offensive game accordingly.

In the end this may all just be an elaborate way of saying what huskerdru already said at the end of his post. :)

[jvonbokel]

Another thing I wanted to mention is how defensive stats can be skewed. For example, if a fielder is known for having a great arm, he's tested much less frequently, and therefor has fewer realistic chances of making the plays that earned him said reputation.

[sweaver]

i don't think it was off. maybe we're underestimating the change in the braves' pitchers on the # of chances andruw had last year.
If that's so, why is ZR the only metric that rates Andruw so low? Zones are a judgment call, like errors.

[pwdennis]

I think Andruw has lost 1/4 step over a few years ago but he still gets to a lot of balls that you'd swear are dropping in for hits

[Rajah]

I would imagine they are using the complex computer program that was mentioned in Moneyball. The system pioneered by AVM Systems that DePodesta figured out how to steal. See the book starting around page 131 for the speil on AVM, and their derivates-based approach to extracting the exact defensive contribution of players. I get the impression that its far beyond anything available in the public domain.

[cubfan33]

Ding ding ding! We have a winner. Good job, Rajah, though "steal" is a bit strong.

[KCBOOMER]

The best thing Andruw has going for him is being on a zillion games and the Braves announcing that every routine catch he makes is fabulous.