Can't Miss - And Did

[Wolf Hopper]

This morning, I was thinking of Billy Ashley, Phil Plantier and Ruben Rivera.

Who are the "can't miss" super prospects that you recall, that did miss, badly?

[sweaver]

Paul Householder. Still a painful echo for Reds fans.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Rookie of the year. Two years later -- gone.
Joe Charboneau.

"Can't miss" to "can't hit" in two months.
Jury's still out on Brandon Phillips.

[TGwynn19]

Paul Wilson

[Wolf Hopper]

Paul Wilson 711 career IP, and still going, is a miss?

[Wolf Hopper]

Paul Householder. Still a painful echo for Reds fans. How about Tracy Jones too?

[Jim Rice]

Royals fans remember Butch Davis, who teased us with a .344 AVG and .509 SLG in 33 games in 1983.

He has perhaps been reincarnated in the person of Dee Brown.

Clint Hurdle was another stud gone wrong.

[TGwynn19]

711 career IP, and still going, is a miss?


For a first overall pick,yes.

[sweaver]

How about Tracy Jones too?
To a lesser extent. But Jones didn't get the buildup Householder did.

I would almost exempt pitchers from this category, due to innate unpredictability, but Frank Pastore could be included in the Reds' division.

[nyy26wc]

Bam Bam Meulens

[Wolf Hopper]

For a first overall pick,yes.

Wilson is still 711 higher than Brien Taylor! ;)

[Cooper]

Wilson is still 711 higher than Brien Taylor! ;)

Man! Stole my thunder. EDIT: By mentioning Taylor in any regards, that is.

[Rajah]

Billy Beane. :)

[Ytown Tribe fan]

The Yanks signed Mickey Mantle as an amateur free agent before the 1949 season, but he only got the second-highest signing bonus from them.

The guy who got the higher bonus never played a day for the Yanks; went on to play for the Washington Senators and the Kansas City A's for parts of 8 seasons -- wasn't bad when he played but never recovered from early injuries.

Whitey Herzog.

[LeGrandOrange]

Roger Salkeld would be a good Mariner representative in this post. I'm amazed we pawned him off for Tim Belcher...Roger was just terrible in the bigs.

[rc3000]

Clint Hurdle

[Wolf Hopper]

Marc Newfield - like Plantier and Salkeld, staples on my roto teams, back when I played.

[TimmyB]

How about the rest of that outfield that was supposed to take Boston through the '90s... Plantier, Burks and Greenwell.

Gator had a decent career, but, never lived up to the promise of 1988. Burks, too, had some pretty good years once he left Boston, but, in the end, for all of them, it wasn't what was advertised.

[TimmyB]

Just thought of this, too -- Adrian Beltre is a year or two away from joining this list (some might argue he's already there...).

[Wolf Hopper]

For Beantowners, I always remember Ted Cox.

When he came up in 1977, he made big noise - and then fell off the earth.

[tyruschen]

How' bout Rick Ankiel? Anybody remembers him or knows where is him?

[Wolf Hopper]

He's still trying to comeback - but, sure does look like a did miss!

[Jim Rice]

For Beantowners, I always remember Ted Cox.

When he came up in 1977, he made big noise - and then fell off the earth.

Yes, but for Beantowners' sake it's important to note that he fell off the earth AFTER they dealt him to Cleveland as part of the Dennis Eckersley deal. He was just impressive enough in 13 games in September '77 that he had some value to the Tribe that offseason. They needed to get rid of Eck anyway since he and Rick Manning were about to get medieval on each other in the clubhouse after Eck's wife left him for Manning, who was his best friend up to that point. The Sox were able to get a deal done for Cox and basically a bag of balls.

This is important because it was the only trade ever made by Haywood Sullivan that doesn't make Sox fans cringe upon recollection.

It's also important because one of the other players the Sox gave up, Mike Paxton, fits in this thread as another can't-miss guy who flamed out.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

David Clyde!

[Sidewinder]

Jim Lindeman and Mike Harkey are two that stick out in my mind.

[tyruschen]

He's still trying to comeback - but, sure does look like a did miss!

Oh yeah, I found Ankiel's stats in AA this year and I think he really missed it.

W-L:2-6 ERA: 6.29 IP: 54.1 SO: 64 BB: 49 WP: 10

His BA is .240 and OPS is .669, maybe he needs to do some changes...

[wijamie]

Sam Horn, Karim Garcia...........

and of course Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor.

[pwdennis]

Mike Ivey

A world of talent, very little accomplishment

[KCBOOMER]

"Jumbo" Jim Nash of the A's was 12-1 as a rookie and then went 56-63 for the rest of his career.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Brad Komminsk.

A lot of guys mentioned here were not real hot prospects, but rode a hot streak (Charbeneau) at the ML level that was not indicated by their minor league stats. Some others were a little old for prospects, and came to the bigs at age 25 or so. Others, like Hurdle, were flops, but had 1 or 2 good seasons.

Komminsk, however, was, according to Bill James, the ONE player who, according to his minor league numbers, projected as a minor league star, than failed to even show one good year as a regular.

Even Plantier hit 34 homers one year.

Even John Milner hit 23 and 20 HRs twice.

One of the main reasons pitchers are busts are injuries; position players develop on a more predictable curve.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Paul Householder. Still a painful echo for Reds fans.

Householder was close to Komminsk; he was mega-hyped and never did anything. I wonder if his minor league stats were as solid as Komminsk's.

Householder may have been overrated. According to Bill James, Komminsk had the talent, but the label attached to him (an accurate one, apperently) was "Can't Handle the Pressure".

[Fuzzy Bear]

1B---Randy Bass
2B---Johnny Paredes
SS---Nelson Norman
3B---Hensley Meulens
LF---Brad Komminsk
CF---Don Bosch
RF---Mike Anderson
C----Steve Chilcott
P----Les Rohr
P----David Clyde
P----Eddie Bane
P----Todd Van Poppel
P----Randy Tate

[sweaver]

Danny Goodwin, a two-time #1 overall draft pick, deserves a spot on that squad.

[Wolf Hopper]

Lance Dickson

[LeGrandOrange]

Danny Goodwin, a two-time #1 overall draft pick, deserves a spot on that squad.

Certainly a DH spot can be made. I was thinking of mentioning him but I wasn't sure if suffering an early injury was grounds for being a "miss" prospect. Of course, a guy who gets drafted #1 twice should do more than what he did...

I think Shawn Abner has to be somewhere on that team too.

[Wolf Hopper]

I thought about Abner - Dave McCarty too.

[NJYANKEE]

You could make a case for JD Drew. Although he's been often injured, and is servicable, there comes a point where you have to put up the numbers - especially after all of the hype and the Philly fiasco.

[LeGrandOrange]

J.D. Drew? What, you were expecting him to be the next Barry Bonds? :) He's had a very good career so far, he is not a "miss" prospect by any means.

By contrast, look at Jose Guillen. I remember hearing an awful lot of hype for this kid, at least a few Clemente comps. Even with the 2003 he had for Cincinnati, he has still swung at and missed his expectations badly.

[gyb13]

ruben rivera too

[manny tortolero]

Bill Pulsipher was not part of the future "wonderful" Mets staff in the mid 90's?
Manuel

[jzmet]

he definitely didn't "miss" (14yrs and a .290 BA), but when he came up in 87/88, Gregg Jefferies was supposed to be "THE MAN" for the Mets--didn't turn out quite like everyone(i.e. mets fans) hoped

[Fuzzy Bear]

Lance Dickson

Oh, wow! This made me think of the two other Cub floppos of the late 80s and early 90s; Ty Griffin and Mike Harkey.

Harkey made it to the majors, but frequent injuries disrupted the learning curve significantly.

Sam Millitello and Brett Backlund were two early 1990s flops as pitchers, as well.

[SABRJoe]

Few names that I haven't seen that came to mind:

Kevin Maas
Josh Hamilton
Ty Griffin
Kirk Dressendorfer
Toe Nash (more hype than anything)

and the doomed arms from the 1st round in 1989:
Jeff Juden
Ben MacDonald
Roger Salkeld


Joe

[Wolf Hopper]

I thought of Ben too - but, he actually had a career.

[JamesI]

I thought of Ben too - but, he actually had a career.
Not as good as he should have had...

[tyruschen]

The best "Can miss - and did": Ken Griffey-before-Reds for Reds.

[LeGrandOrange]

First guy I thought about when I saw Ben McDonald's name in this post was Don Gullett. Hyped first round picks, debuted early, did well early, and injuries prevented them from pitching past 30. Difference of course being Gullett got run support and has the great win%.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I thought of Ben too - but, he actually had a career.

Kevin Maas had a career, too.

When I think of a flop, I first think of a guy who never establishes himself as a major league regular and then disappears (as opposed to hanging on for years and years as a part-timer).

Guys with ability who hang on as part-timers often get a chance to show that they were good and maybe didn't get a break. Jim Dwyer was an example of that; he didn't get a regular job in his best years, but hung on to 40, I think, because he could hit.

[sweaver]

First guy I thought about when I saw Ben McDonald's name in this post was Don Gullett. Hyped first round picks, debuted early, did well early, and injuries prevented them from pitching past 30. Difference of course being Gullett got run support and has the great win%.
Gullett was immensely effective when healthy, the best pitcher by far during the Big Red Machine years. But yeah, he could have been so much more. A lefty with a Grade-A fastball and good breaking stuff, plus decent control. With good health, he woulda won several Cy Youngs.