Let The Big Train Rumble

Let The Big Train Rumble
by Tim Connelly

There are many ways of looking at the greatness of a pitcher’s season. What I wanted to do in this article was to spend a little time evaluating the very best way of looking at a pitcher while determining which pitcher had the greatest season ever.

I am going to start from a small list of great seasons and expand the search from there:

Bob Gibson in 1968
Lefty Grove in 1931
Walter Johnson in 1913
Steve Carlton in 1972

In 1968, Bob Gibson had the lowest ERA of any pitcher in this century who threw at least 300 innings. Anytime you accomplish something beyond what anybody else has done, you’ve done good. But the question becomes, how great an accomplishment is Gibson’s feat? Here is a list of the top 15 all time with at least 300 innings.

ERA			YEAR	ERA	IP
1	Bob	Gibson	1968	1.12	305
2	Walter	Johnson	1913	1.14	346
3	Addie	Joss	1908	1.16	325
4	Grover	Alexander	1915	1.22	376
5	George	Bradley	1876	1.23	573
6	Ed	Walsh	1910	1.27	369.2
7	Walter	Johnson	1918	1.27	326
8	Christy	Mathewson	1905	1.28	338.2
9	Jack	Coombs	1910	1.3	353
10	Three Finger	Brown	1909	1.31	342.2
11	Jack	Taylor	1902	1.33	324.2
12	Walter	Johnson	1910	1.36	370
13	Old Hoss	Radbourn	1884	1.38	678.2
14	Walter	Johnson	1912	1.39	369
15	Ed	Walsh	1908	1.42	464

Gibson threw 13 shutouts that season. He completed 28 out of 34 games. He set a World Series record. that still stands today: 17 strikeouts in a game. Gibson’s year was beyond fantastic.

It can be argued that his record was only 22-9. But we’re going to step around that and say that runs were at an all-time low. He pitched in a pitchers park in a pitchers era. That had to help.

But when looking at his ERA against the league average, it is still the best ever of any pitcher throwing at least 250 innings.

ERA			YEAR	RATE	PLAYER	LEAGUE
1	Bob	Gibson	1968	266	1.12	2.98
2	Walter	Johnson	1913	256	1.14	2.92
3	Three Finger	Brown	1906	253	1.04	2.63
4	Walter	Johnson	1912	240	1.39	3.34
5	Dwight	Gooden	1985	235	1.53	3.60
6	Christy	Mathewson	1905	235	1.28	2.99
7	Christy	Mathewson	1909	226	1.14	2.59
8	Cy	Young	1901	225	1.62	3.66
9	Grover	Alexander	1915	225	1.22	2.74
10	Roger	Clemens	1997	224	2.05	4.57
11	Dean	Chance	1964	220	1.65	3.63
12	Walter	Johnson	1918	218	1.27	2.77
13	Ron	Guidry	1978	217	1.74	3.78
14	Walter	Johnson	1919	217	1.49	3.22
15	Old Hoss	Radbourn	1884	216	1.38	2.98

We know that 1968 was the “Year of the Pitcher” so the tendency is to lower our evaluation of Gibson based on that. But actually there have been more than 25 seasons just since 1900 where the league ERA was lower than the National League ERA of 2.99 that season. And it wasn’t like there were lots of other pitchers with terribly a low ERA, the second lowest mark in the league was by Bobby Bolin who had an ERA of 1.99. Terrific yes, but still 87 points behind Gibson.

So we’re going to move from Gibson aware that the conditions helped but also aware that this is not some kind of a meaningless statistical illusion.

The greatness of Lefty Grove’s 1931 season would seem to rest on his winning 31 games with only 4 losses. Actually Denny McLain won the same number of games, while pitching many more innings with a slightly lower ERA in 1968. McLain lost 2 extra games but that’s not really what separates the 2 seasons. Grove had a 2.06 ERA when the league was at 4.38. So the real greatness of Grove’s season rests on the combination of a great record and a great ERA, once it is placed in perspective.

The job of a pitcher is not only to prevent the other team from scoring: It is also to manage his allowance of runs in such a way as to bring victory to his team as often as possible. Nobody has ever done that quite as well as he did during a season where they won that many games. But pitchers do not start from an even base. The Athletics were a great team even when Grove was not pitching. There record was 76 and 41 in the decisions Grove was not involved in. That’s a winning percentage of .650. Grove’s winning percentage was .886!

Still, all things considered, I would rank Grove’s season below Gibson’s.

Steve Carlton won 27 and lost 10 in 1972. That’s an excellent record but it's not that special. Note the pitcher we just talked about.

But Steve pitched for a miserable team. The Phillies won only 32 games when Carlton wasn’t on the mound! The team was an unbelievable 32 and 87 in the decisions he was not a part of. That's a winning percentage of .269. That's within a stone's throw of being at the bottom for any modern team: The NY Mets of 1962 had a winning percentage of .250.

The Phillies finished next to last in runs scored and were better at pitching than at hitting. I mention that to show he wasn’t a great pitcher playing for a lousy pitching team that gave good offensive support. At least if they did give him good offensive support, it was a matter of some luck: This was a lousy hitting ball club.

I give Carlton a lot of credit. To be able to win on a team as lousy as the Phillies were is a heck of an accomplishment. But I would have to say that “wins above team,” while a very interesting stat, is not the final word. Carlton was pitching far away from the pressures of a pennant race. Even though he pitched some great baseball, the fact that every game he pitched after the all-star game had no bearing on his team even getting out of last place, makes me feel like it could never be rated as the greatest season ever. He also led the league in ERA with a very nice 1.97 but his ERA was only the league's best by 2 points. This was a great, great season and I won't quarrel with anybody who rates his accomplishment a little higher than I do.

Walter Johnson’s 1913 season has to get my vote for the best season ever. I think the key to being a strong student of the game is to be open to looking at everything. So rather than looking at one thing, I’m trying to focus my vision on the bigger picture. Johnson’s ERA is within a couple of points Of Gibson’s. In fact many old writings refer to his ERA as 1.09. And his record is comparable to Grove’s. He was either 34 and 7 or 36 and 7. Different encyclopedias list his win total differently. With his ERA on the same block as Gibson’s and a winning percentage pretty close to Grove’s, it looks like The Big Train is the big man!

Here is a list of the top 15 pitchers in winning percentage with at least 27 wins:

W%			YEAR	PCT	W
1	Lefty	Grove	1931	0.886	31
2	Joe	Wood	1912	0.872	34
3	Lefty	Grove	1930	0.848	28
T4	Denny	McLain	1968	0.838	31
T4	Bill	Hoffer	1895	0.838	31
6	Walter	Johnson	1913	0.837	36
7	Old Hoss	Radbourn	1884	0.831	59
T8	Jim	Hughes	1899	0.824	28
T8	Jack	Chesbro	1902	0.824	28
T8	Dazzy	Vance	1924	0.824	28
11	Bob	Welch	1990	0.818	27
12	Joe	McGinnity	1904	0.814	35
13	Dizzy	Dean	1934	0.811	30
14	Eddie	Cicotte	1919	0.806	29
T15	Robin	Roberts	1952	0.800	28
T15	Mickey	Welch	1885	0.800	44

He also shares a common characteristic with Carlton: his team was 54 wins and 57 losses in the games he did not get the decision. But with Walter's record tacked on the Senators were 90 and 64 for a second place finish in the league.

Walter led in more departments than any pitcher in baseball history. Here is his ranking among the league leaders:

1913 AL
WINS 1ST 36
WINNING PERCENTAGE 1ST .837
GAMES T2ND 48
GAMES STARTED T2ND 36
COMPLETE GAMES 1ST 29
GAMES FINISHED T9TH 11
INNINGS PITCHED 1ST 346
STRIKEOUTS 1ST 243
ERA 1ST 1.14
RSAA 1ST 74
HOMERUNS T1ST 9
HITS/9 IP 1ST 6.03
BASERUNNERS/9 IP 1ST 7.26
STRIKEOUTS/9 IP 1ST 6.32
WALKS/9 IP 1ST .99
STRIKEOUTS/WALKS 1ST 6.39
SHUTOUTS 1ST 11
BATTERS FACED 1ST 1305
NEUTRAL WINS 1ST 37

There have been some phenomenal seasons that I didn’t mention here. Smokey Joe Wood went 34 and 5 for the 1912 Boston Red Sox. Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez had some fantastic seasons: Martinez in the year 2000 had the highest ERA above the league average in major league history. If he had pitched more innings, I would have to give him serious consideration for having the greatest season ever. But with Walter Johnson consistently going all 9 and pitching more than 125 more innings than Pedro, I think his 1913 season surpasses any other season in baseball history.

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