December 31, 2001

If Pedro Plunked You, He Probably Meant It
by Steve Lombardi

A recent exchange with a fellow baseball fan left me thinking about the possibility of statistically measuring (to some extent) "intent" with respect to pitchers throwing at batters.  For a handle, I immediately began thinking of Brushback Average, or BBA.

The obvious place to start was Hit By Pitch (HBP) totals - - relative to Batters Faced (BF).  However, BF statistics were not kept for parts of the early 1900s.  Therefore, if one were to pursue this approach, and intended on utilizing a HBP/BF ratio, an "estimation of batters faced" (herein "eBF") would have to suffice.  To this end, the formula eBF equals (Innings Pitched*2.82)+Hits+Walks was used - - enabling pitchers with incomplete official BF totals (such as Pink Hawley, Win Mercer, Cy Seymour, Nixey Callahan, Ed Doheny, Wiley Piatt, Clark Griffith, et al) to be included in the study.

But, a ratio of HBP/eBF only illustrates the estimated percentage of the number of batters faced whom were hit by a pitch.  Still, the matter of "intent" needed to be factored into the process.

"Command" ratio (Strikeouts per Walks Allowed) quickly came to mind as means to address this need.  As a measure of a pitcher's ability to throw strikes over balls, it can also be used as in indication of a pitcher's ability to place his pitches.

Therefore, in this examination, HBP/eBF will be factored by Command - - making this interim tool appear as [{HBP/eBF}*{K/BB}].  

The label interim is applied due to some tweaking which was applied to the final tally.  In order to provide a more user friendly appearance to these results, something more along the lines of a "batting-average-ish" number, a multiplier of ten was used.  Thus, yielding the final equation of:

BBA = [{HBP/eBF}*{K/BB}]*10

This in hand, Brushback Average (BBA) was calculated for all pitchers with 1,500+ career innings pitched (IP) - - during the years 1900 through 2001.  What follows are the top twenty, in terms of BBA, for those captured within the aforementioned IP parameter:

"HBP Rank," above, is where the pitcher resides on the all-time career total list of HBP.  "Rate Rank" is where the pitcher ranks, in terms of Brushback Average, all-time, of pitchers with 25+ career HBP who pitched from 1900 to 2001.

At this junction, it is significant to again stress that the statistic of BBA should be thought of in terms of a "probability" (or intent) ratio.  The higher the ratio compared to other pitchers, the greater the probability of the pitcher's intent to brushback and/or hit batters.  However, while it is not a "real number," as long as the equation is applied universally to all pitchers in a study, it does allow for some comparative analysis.

And, the analysis here is that Pedro Martinez is head and shoulders the leader of the class.  It is somewhat safe to assume that, if you were a batter hit by one of Pedro's pitches, Mr. Martinez has some intent behind his offerings.

In fact, only seven pitchers in the history of the game (with 25+ career HBP during 1900-2001) have a BBA of .400 or greater.  And, Pedro is still the top of that chart as well.  

What follows are the top twenty, in terms of BBA, for all pitchers with 25+ career HBP - - during the years 1900 through 2001:

As before, "HBP Rank," above, is where the pitcher resides on the all-time career total list of HBP.  "Rate Rank" is where the pitcher ranks, in terms of Brushback Average, all-time, of pitchers with 25+ career HBP who pitched from 1900 to 2001.

What is very interesting about this list is the presence of so many current day pitchers.  No wonder why we see so many highlights (?) of batters charging mounds following brushbacks on ESPN's "SportsCenter" every evening.

For those interested in how the Top 100 all-time HBP leaders (from 1900-2001) rank in terms of BBA, the following chart is included:

Again, "HBP Rank," above, is where the pitcher resides on the all-time career total list of HBP.  "Rate Rank" is where the pitcher ranks, in terms of Brushback Average, all-time, of pitchers with 25+ career HBP who pitched from 1900 to 2001.

Note the placement of some of baseball's "celebrated" and reputed brushback artists on this list.  Carl Mays, Burleigh Grimes, Bob Gibson, Dennis Martinez, Danny Darwin, Kevin Gross - - sure, they have some high totals of HBP; but, based on their BBA, the issue of "intent" is not as clear as it is with Pedro, Randy Johnson, or Drysdale.

Also interesting, in expanding the list to capture the Top 100 HBP leaders, are some of the one-on-one comparisons which arise via the BBA rankings.  For example, Roger Clemens, often labeled as one not afraid to provide a close shave to a batter, has a BBA (.246) which is comparable to Aaron Sele (.249).  Yet, you rarely hear about "Sele the Intimidator." 

Seeing both Leiter brothers in Top 90 of BBA certainly makes one ponder how many plunkings occurred between the two brothers, as they grew up, playing whiffle-ball in their backyard in southern New Jersey?

Lastly, it seems that a brushback artist (as defined by BBA) was more common place in the periods 1900 to 1929, 1950 to 1969, and 1990 forward.  Tannehill, Plank and the Big Train we